bradymk

Not far from linking up at Day 10. Now for Low res to ruin it. Good news about GloSea showing easterlies finally appearing all the way down at the surface too by early Feb

Heights starting to increase to our north slowly at Day 9. The blues coming lighter north east of Iceland. wirh the ridge to the east building, GFS has been showing the possibility of Atlantic heights joining up to this to our north. Let’s see if it happens again. Edit: huge ridge into the Pole too pacific side

The ridge to our east seems to becoming more notable with each run at the moment.

Looking at tomorrow, a more organised band of precip is now showing on some of the models crossing the southern half of UK tomorrow afternoon. Could give a surprise covering to some.

Snow crossing most of the country a week tonight/tomorrow on ECM. Although it was a disappointing end to the easterly, the milder period at the end of this week and the weekend is getting smaller.

Just found something on Weather.us that will be of interest regarding EURO4. it actually goes out to +54 on here, rather than the +48 on weatheronline. Handy moving forward. It already goes to Tuesday 12pm from the 06z run as seen below. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/great-britain/snow-depth/20190122-1200z.html

Straw clutching perhaps but still a respected model! JMA by far the best at +84 tonight. Will the ECM be as amplified..

Let's not forget though that those real eye catching EC 46 anomalies were not until Week 24th-31st and the week after that. Not trying to sugar coat the end of that run, but just a reminder that the period of real interest is still perhaps after the EC op timeframe. Lots of changes though run to run so hard to have any confidence either way in the output. Part of the ride...

GFS (P) consistent with its previous output and sliding the low out to our west. Very cold over the UK. A slight improvement on the 6z run too. important point is that it’s being consistent in recent runs, which contrasts to the GFS. Let’s hope it sticks to its guns.

“Cold or very cold” a good change

Nice update!

The 06z Para sliding nicely at 180 to the west of us.

You can see from this particular graphic on the MetOffice video that negative zonal winds propagate down to troposphere from I would say 20th or Jan or so gauging from the graph and stay negative for rest of winter even though positive winds return at the top. wonder if this is GloSea data?

Yes, although T+300 and beyond, good to see a similar pattern to the end of the 00z on GFS. Heights really building over North East Canada and looking to link with the Atlantic. Lets hope it now edges closer.

ECM looking v similar to UKMO at 120.

Quite a big change so far. Lets hope the trend continues. I would say GFS would upgrade those uppers too if it does come closer to fruition. Exciting times. Going off past experience too, we tend to always get a slight flip back the other way so don't panic too much if one run is less amplified. Compared to a few days ago, we definitely can not complain. It is a promising sign though to see these upgrades coming in the medium term as well, only 5 or so days out. Almost always a good sign imo.

Similar with UKMO 144 in that N America looking a lot different to previous runs by the models. Heights a lot higher than what we've seen in past runs.

Arpege also looking good at +114. Good ridge into Greenland. Lets see what GFS comes up with..

These two charts show the clear trend today towards colder conditions in the midterm when comparing tonight’s GEFS 18z mean to the 00z this morning. a large spread for just day 5/6 too.

Yes Singularity a good point. I was thinking about this the other day. Propagation is shown hemispherically on the charts that we see and this may sway some plots. Focusing on the Atlantic sector would give a better indication I would have thought. I came across this on twitter from Simon Lee who raises the same point and created an Atlantic plot. see below: although a couple of days out of date now unfortunately!

A big improvement! Split across the pole too.

Better profile on the 12z over the poles at day 9/10 compared to recent runs.

Done some backtracking through the threads. Obviously the forecast dates start to overlap/change from 16-30 to 6-15 day forecasts as you move through. I think it shows below that these forecasts often tend to start to pick up trends in the extended and then develop on these closer to time with more detail and certainty. As Bluearmy said above though, these are definitely changing more frequently recently than they used to. Looking back, wording would not change for 5/6 days at a time. Last day of October - not really picked up on as of yet. UK Outlook for Monday 15 Nov 2010 to Monday 29 Nov 2010: The last two weeks of November are expected to begin wet, windy and mild and feeling autumnal. Temperatures are expected to be near or a little above the normal, especially in the south. Some parts of the UK may see below average rainfall towards the end of the month, especially the east of England and the southwest of the UK. Temperatures are also expected to begin above average, but then to become closer to the average later in the period. Updated: 1200 on Sun 31 Oct 2010 7th November - below average signal and weather being picked up. UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Monday 6 Dec 2010: The trend is for generally more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas. Updated: 1241 on Sun 7 Nov 2010 11th November - Starting now to get into the brief pattern emerging end of Nov. UK Outlook for Friday 26 Nov 2010 to Friday 10 Dec 2010: Remaining generally settled, but cold across much of the UK. Precipitation should be mostly below average, with the driest and brightest weather expected in the west. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers into eastern areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with a risk of overnight frosts. Updated: 1153 on Thu 11 Nov 2010 18th November - Forecast has now moved into the 6-15 day forecast rather than 15-30. Definite wording now and this wording started from Tuesday 16th. UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010: A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold. Updated: 1149 on Thu 18 Nov 2010 22nd November - A solid 6-15 day forecast for cold and snow. UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Nov 2010 to Monday 6 Dec 2010: The first weekend will see snow showers anywhere in the UK, but most showers or longer periods of snow will be across eastern areas, with maybe southern areas being affected too. Risk of some significant accumulations, especially on hills. Also clearer spells, more in the west, with widespread frosts. All areas very cold. Continuing windy in places; risk of gales in the northeast. The first part of next week sees further snow showers in the east, with drier and brighter conditions to the west, and still very cold, but perhaps turning less cold in the south later. For the rest of the period it will stay cold with further wintry showers. The south and southwest may be milder at times but with some spells of rain, sleet, or possibly snow. Updated: 1159 on Mon 22 Nov 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

2013 example - SSW in Jan. Posted December 29, 2012 UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013: There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases. 2010 Example - this pretty much didn't change wording for a week or two. Posted December 1, 2010 UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Thursday 30 Dec 2010: The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow. Updated: 1222 on Wed 1 Dec 2010 This from Marco Petagna on Twitter yesterday regarding the 30 dayer "All weather model output is considered when writing the 30day forecasts. However the forecast is worded to emphasise the uncertainties at that stage...no reference to 'will' but 'likely'. Our deputy chief writes this & has access to more info than me so cannot comment further"

Maybe im too optimistic but I look at it as just a slight delay in the cold compared to the other update but still there. Clearly a lot of uncertainty with the upcoming SSW and not enough clarity yet for them to make a full commitment to cold in terms of timescales.