bradymk

Heavy rain here at the moment but temperature dropping fast. 4.0c now. Updated MetOffice text forecast for Sunday - slightly at odds with their warning text. Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Occasional rain and snow, mainly over the hills in south clearing during the afternoon on Sunday.

Cardiff so almost as low as it gets! Before Sunday, later today looks like a good chance for many inland areas too! Then tomorrow morning it looks like a dangler will set up in the west with colder air than currently. Plenty of chances, I think you'll see snow later in Aberdare

Haha agree! Definitely more confident than the other events so far, but what can go wrong usually does when you live at 10m!

Yes hoping so James! If the majority of models stay like they are, we'll all be fine. Its good to hear no rain mentioned in the warning. Your location should be especially well placed! Only small worry is Arpege taking it to far south. Bound to be some uncertainty at this stage though and the majority of models are good for us all.

No mention of rain on Sundays warning. 1-3cm at low levels. 5-10cm above 100m. The separate warning issued for today and tomorrow morning talks about rain/sleet at low coastal areas. As Jamie says above, Sundays marginality for southern coastal areas is going to go down to how far north the precipitation is. We'd want to see some movement from EURO4 and Arpege in coming runs but I think Sunday is definitely the best chance of the winter so far.

Comparing UKMO to yesterday, a clear southwards movement at both timeframes. Nothing crazy different but better than going the other way! Today’s 120 vs yday 144 today’s 96 v yday 120

Looks like your weather.us has somehow changed to CST time zone Tim. So those charts times are 6 hours behind UK time ??

Although the whole of the GEM run is great. It has quite a few snow opportunities before Sat for central/eastern areas and also for more southern central areas Friday morning. Thursday night/Fri morning. Saturday morning

Looking colder again earlier on this run. The cold to the east is further west by the end of the week, with the -8 850’s brushing east coast.

The frames below are from each of the GFS runs today, for the same date - next Sunday. As you go from the 00z run through to the 18z, on each run the heights have got higher to our north and north west and the Arctic high has become much more visible and influential on each run. As to be expected of course given what’s happening, but just to show how much is changing run to run with the SSW influence becoming more obvious each time, even if it isn’t directly affecting us yet. 00z 06z 12z 18z

Who knows mate. The radar seems way different to the models and has done all day. Potentially a little light snow for inland areas as it slowly sinks southwards but doesn’t seem enough precip around really. And too warm for low lying area near coasts.

Ye light rain here. Temp dropped slightly to 2.8c but definitely rain.

Yes probably a touch colder and slightly higher. Some heavier precip heading our way, who knows what will fall!

Light rain here in Heath, Cardiff. 3.1c.

Lovely, enjoy! 2.0c down here in Cardiff so even if it makes it, likely to be wet not white here again. Plenty more opportunities to come hopefully!

Precipitation increasing in North Wales throughout the morning and looks persistent almost all day in some areas. Could be a good covering in sweet spots there! Good luck! Down south, the Metoffice text forecast is more encouraging than I thought for today. However let’s see how far South the precipitation comes and when it arrives. Still waiting for some snow here in Cardiff. Been a long cold spell but just the wrong side of marginality on the coasts so far.

No, tomorrow is still possible ?? The rise in temp tonight was expected but that’s separate to tomorrow’s potential snow. MetO warning is associated with the precip moving south on Friday not tonight.

Yep but with the less cold air moving in with them too. Frustrating. Can see the warmer sector well on the models using 850hpa temps for instance. 2pm today Then 8pm today - can see the less cold air (lighter blue) is now almost over the whole of Wales. 5pm tomorrow - back in colder air again with the coldest air moving south through Ireland.

Yep not much if any expected here tonight mate. Although some light snow/flurries possible from the front that is currently moving south east. Tomorrow is certainly still possible, but uncertain how south it comes. Some have precipitation reaching the south coast, other models dont take any precipitation past the beacons and staying dry. ECM just out now has a good amount of snow for inland North Wales tomorrow. It also has an area of precipitation in the south east around midday. However its just rain/sleet on ECM.

To add to my post above, the front that is moving across South Wales now, although causing a rise in temperature for many, may still give some light snow to inland areas and higher areas of the south east. Although light it looks to have become more organised as its moving across the country. 17:15 18:00

0.4c here in Cardiff but I would imagine temperatures will start to rise shortly as per reports further west. The front that is crossing the country now, just west of Swansea isn't part of tomorrows wintry weather that we've been discussing above. We have a less cold airmass moving south eastwards at the moment across the country which is causing the temperatures to rise further north and west, but this is due to be replaced by colder air again as we move through tomorrow. Early tomorrow morning then is the area of precipitation that is of interest and how far that precipitation comes south. As JackFrost says above, most may not make it further south than the beacons but each model is different. All very uncertain but not expecting anything notable either way.

Afternoon all! Looking at tomorrows potential snow with the latest 12z models; Arpege, Arome, GFS, Harmonie & Arome - Still awaiting EURO4, NMM and ECM. Looks hit and miss at the moment on who sees snow. Each run I have seen in the past 24 hours has changed the amount of precipitation so still a lot of uncertainty, particularly the further south you are. GFS has been keen on this for a good few days so it may still have a good handle on it although its resolution is less than the Hi-res models now we're this close to the event. Currently North, Mid and east Wales look like seeing the most precipitation but with some large local variances. Uncertainty then on how south this spreads before petering out, with some models showing more extensive precipitation in the south than others. It looks like being another mixture of rain/sleet/snow on low ground near costs with snow inland and on higher ground. The air getting colder as the day progresses however. Could be a decent covering for some in mid Wales especially, north of the beacons. Would love it to be more extensive and heavier come tomorrow morning as models may underestimate the amount of precipitation. I am sure it will very much be a nowcast event as always. Hoping to see some falling snow here in Cardiff at some point in the day. However not expecting anything notable or accumulating here (Hope im wrong!). Friday 1pm: Friday 4pm:

MetOffice have also got that in their text forecast for south east Wales. They mention the early hours the chance of wintry showers. May see something at least, still waiting for a proper snow shower. Just sleet so far.

Good luck! Too marginal on low ground here now unfortunately. Temps and dps rising.

Nice heavier blob about to hit Ponty!