bradymk

Yes some intensity would do it! Central/north. It has got heavier and quite a few flakes in it now! im right on the south edge of that band now and it’s picked up but still light. Probably is snow on M4 north of Cardiff.

Very Light rain here in Cardiff 1c. ARGH!

That’s a good sign given your location! Hoping for the same here.

I hope so. Just checked the models, the first 18z is out - icon has this for now. 10pm And then this 1am so perhaps still a decent chance later on too. Will see what Arpege Harmonie and GFS have.

Not too sure - Hoping for a dusting. North and north west Cardiff most likely. Think our best chance in Cardiff is the band approaching Pontypool now. If that misses or peters out, then probably nothing as I don’t think the band behind will hit currently. Although winds may change and change the trajectory of this as we go through the night. Hopefully plenty more chances in the next few weeks either way!

Nice. Where are you snowguy? Still hopeful the next bit coming along will hit majority of Cardiff. Hope it stays intact though!

Temp rising from -0.3c to 0.7c here now. Sod’s law the band will arrive now and it will be too warm after all!

Yes potentially. Really hard to tell! The circled bit here that is about to hit Caerphilly. Was here below at 8pm. So going off that logic, it was further north west than the band that I circled that may hit. It’s possible, I personally hope anyway!!

Jay, this is the one I’m interested in. Circled red. Seems on the right trajectory!

Yes I think more towards us as it is slightly further east than the band that just went through was. However less sure whether it will remain intact! Fingers crossed.

Hard to tell! I reckon could be SSW? Doesn’t seem to be moving directly north - south. Been changing all day mind! Fingers crossed for later... Confident whatever arrives will be snowy, even here. Although temperatures forecast to rise later in the night...

Yes agree, or the small bit just south of Hereford which may/hopefully pep up as it moves closer.

Showers seem to be holding their intensity well at the moment! Nice area of precip currently moving south west, over Merthyr and the east beacons at the moment - looks like it’s heading towards the Bridgend area. This band probably missing me in Cardiff but hopeful of some of the ones behind hitting here. 0.0c here now. Best chance of low level snow so far this spell here.

Disappointing temps in that first band earlier in the night across the country. Temperatures now dropping again and potentially more luck from the precipitation moving down from the north West now. 4.5c here (6.7c a few hours ago) Jay, can see showers approaching Cardiff/Caerphilly, temperatures now at 0/1c even in the city. Could get lucky...

Dropped to around 1c here in Pembrokeshire 9pm, with the earlier rain/hail/sleet frozen on top of the car. Quickly rose to 4.7c in the last hour! Was not expecting anything from tonight here either way, but hopeful of seeing something in the next few days.

After checking GEFS every day for the past few weeks, weirdly after the downbeat nature of yesterday, I would say the 00z is one of the best suites at day 10 to 15 so far. Lots of amplified members at Xmas, particularly post Xmas. From past experience, one of GEFS strong points is that it is good at picking up mid Atlantic amplification in the longer range so looking through the members, hopefully this is the sign of the MJO helping us out at end of the month. Several members attached. See what 6z suite follows up with...

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this.

Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.

Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days.

Saw this from Matt Hugo on Twitter. Although not much change at all in 850’s, there is a lot more spread for T2 temp’s from 12z GEFS for the end of this week. comparing the 12z to 00z below, they’re a lot more colder members at the surface on the 12z suite suggesting perhaps more continental influence and the high getting that bit further north. However perhaps just a rogue suite.

Similar to Arpege this evening then Steve!

Further to last post. Comparing day 6 on the GFS and UKMO. Stronger high to the east on UKMO. Lower heights further west in Southern Europe too - over Italy on UKMO. Hopefully suppressing a build of euro heights as large as GFS does post 144. Slightly higher heights to north and north west of UK Wonder if we could get a link up between the arctic high and high out east as this ticks closer too?

Comparing UKMO 120 today to 144 yday and some definite differences for the better; More pressure from the high situated E Europe/Russia. trough deeper and further west over UK. arctic high a little bit more prominent on the 120 chart from today too.

Just went over the mountain and a dusting up there and snowing. Still snowing at The travellers rest coming into Thornhill. Then sleety rain there downwards. Didn’t think the snow line would be as low as it has been so far