bradymk

later on as the cold digs in more interest for you Simon up there. The milder air was always around now. As you can see wth Marus_surfer post, cold air starting to dig in now rear end of front.

Some pretty big changes at day Day 7-9 on the 6z! Comparing 192 6z to 198 00z.

Am hoping for GFS to adjust south for Thursday in its runs this afternoon. We don't want it to keep consistent with its more northerly track of the low if its all snow we want in Wales. Lets hope Arpege/Icon and UKMO models have this right.

I was in Pembrokeshire at the time. It was much more marginal there unfortunately. It started as rain and turned to snow later in the night where I lived but was very wet and only a covering on grass/cars etc with slushy covering on roads. However parts of rural North Pembrokeshire in particular that are higher up had a lot of snow that day.

Yes for higher areas of south east wales. Would also expect a yellow warning tomorrow mid-morning for Thursday. Edit: beat me to it coldie!

Ye the Arpege and Icon are ideal for us in Wales. ECM good too. Onto tonight, certainly a little colder, more so than I thought actually with -0.3c in Cardiff at 9pm. Models had 2c. Not that it has any effect on tomorrow but chilly considering right on the coast and not clear atm.

A lot of the short term models signalling a mainly rain event tomorrow now for majority of us. Lets hope this changes. MetOffice text looks good though for next few days, hard to call.

Potentially Jay. I think falling snow quite likely as front starts to move eastwards. Higher up you are, more snow for longer. Whether it accumulates who knows. Thursday starting to look a greater risk. Starting to shift southwards run by run for Thurs.

GFS 6z increases snow chances in Wales tomorrow. Rain turns to snow much quicker than earlier runs. I am guessing almost everyone will see falling snow tomorrow, the lower down you are it is just whether it accumulates, especially after the wet start.

Snow depth and dew point for Midnight Wed Goes out to +54 on weather.us now.

Euro4 12z still much further west with the precip, similar to UKMO. This for 18:00 Tuesday.

Been poor this winter but Arpege shows a good angle to the incoming low Thursday/Friday. i imagine UKMO would slide similar although Arpege is a bit quicker.

Comparing the MetOffice Euro4 model with GFS (and ecmwf but less so), the high res Euro4 is clearly further west with the front & precipitation on midday Tuesday. This could help a lot of areas as it increases the chances of precip arriving overnight for more people (less chance of rain first). Euro4 GFS ECMWF

Ye looks like that shower will reach but 6.9c here now. Would be rain if it does even if temp does drop in the shower. looking forward to 12z’s to see if it becomes more favourable for us Tuesday (and Thursday actually)

We could actually do with a shift south of the low because as someone has just posted in mod thread, the precip is way north of the low pressure anyway so a shift south wouldn’t hurt and would decrease the marginal situation.

Ye a tricky situation Tuesday. I’d say we’re well in the game but too uncertainty at the moment. I think the warning area will expand between now and Tuesday. The later the front arrives the better for us. That’s what to look for next couple of runs.

Warnings may well change in coming days, wouldn’t worry too much yet. One of the issues for us is that the precipitation from the front currently arrives during the middle of the day in Wales. At this stage it’s too marginal here and we need an improvement in timing to improve overall chances. Dew points and temps are too high. It’s a rain to snow event for almost everyone though. Further east in UK it arrives later and overnight, increasing their chances. Not a fan of Gfs precip charts but they show well the situation. Rain to snow for almost all, much greater chance away from coastal South Wales.

A long way off this being decided yet! UKMO 120

GFS Parallel probably the most consistent and has been the last few days. its 00z maintains the cold outlook for almost all of the run. Would be a real long spell if it verified. Doesnt mean it’s right, but no reason why the other 12z’s can’t go back the other way. Plenty of scope in the ens. The LP of concern is still not in a timeframe where any model is likely to be modelling it correctly anyway.

The hope for us Cardiff folk is that as we move closer to midnight/1am, the upper winds are due to change slightly and veer more towards a NNW rather than the NW now. Therefore the showers may start to change trajectory slightly if they keep coming. At the moment it’s a little too much to the east for us. Now later tonight

Ahh although now it looks like most of the shower will make it over the Beacons, it now looks like it’s going to miss cardiff to the east. How annoying! however Tredegar blackwood, Ebbw vale all look prime locations.

If the first shower makes it over the Beacons, we could be in business here in SE Wales. i have my doubts though. north wales very active with showers at the moment. Any reports?

Please make it over the Beacons! Cold enough in Cardiff if it reaches...

Yes Shaky, Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

6z this morning at +48, comparing to the 12z yesterday for the same time. Perhaps won't be significant overall but a quite an increase (considering the timeframe) in heights to the north/north east and the high more amplified. See the ligher blue almost making its way to the wedge NE of us. Today Yesterday 12z