bradymk
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Everything posted by bradymk
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Can’t see any topography stopping that. Perhaps inland right in shadow of beacons etc and mid-west wales. but for Swansea and west etc, surely it won’t stop the heavy nature of this precip? Let’s see
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Thinks it’s moving at good speed personally. Earlier in east but 6/7pm further west. HERE IT COMES
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Very heavy in Cardiff centre!!
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You want it to move East!!
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Snow dying out here now as it becomes lighter. Main snow not until this afternoon remember. This wasn’t expected quite Iike this, this early.
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Snow dying out here now as it becomes lighter. Main snow not until this afternoon remember. This wasn’t expected quite Iike this, this early.
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This is turning into a potential historic blizzard for the Cardiff area and south east. Still relatively light here compared to later though. Attached a video of walking in Cathays F5D5A810-8E92-41BB-ABC8-FDA757EDCC9F.MOV
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Please further west do not worry. It is coming this afternoon and evening. Look at GFS. We are just getting very lucky here that we have this heavy precip already. Complete covering in Cardiff now and getting heavier by the minute.
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AND ITS RED
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Getting heavier now, although still small tiny flakes blowing around.
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It will be treacherous if it goes as forecast. Hazardous conditions with visibility severely reduced. Blizzard conditions and snow blowing into drifts. Sounds like an over exaggeration but it’s really not here, in south east wales at least.
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Snow blowing about like no tomorrow. So dry.
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When you really think about it this is a pretty crazy spell of weather. How many times have we been on here with snow coming, but perhaps it’s only marginal or just for higher ground. Or may see some snow at Lower levels. But here we are today and this week, -4/-5c are the max temperatures across the country right now, gusts of up to 45mph and snow just starting to fall and it’s the 1st March. i believe if the cold did extend into next week it would be a historic spell. But let’s see.
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Tricky. Will settle instantly and probably at higher rate than normal. Cardiff being urban makes it less likely to see 20cm+ but possible. if it goes to plan like the forecast, 10-20cm. 20cm for north Cardiff probably. More like 10 down in the city itself. wind increasing to 50mph gusts later, incredible. light snow starting to fall here now.
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Light snow in morning and early afternoon will give a covering but only slight, shouldn’t be many problems on the roads anyway. But heavy and blowing snow from 4pm onwards. Slightly later for those further west.
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
bradymk replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM not quite as cold as it’s 12z turnaround was but still better than recent runs. Staying cold into next week. Wouldn’t take much of a tweak there. Stays even colder up north. Milder air moving up from south for all by Thursday. A very long way away though -
All good this morning, especiallly for east and south east too. If anything , slight upgrades in precipitation again. Only slight difference perhaps is the heavier stuff delayed until perhaps later in the evening than was modelled last night. Not much difference though.
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No, 3mm of precipitation for the 3 hour period. i think it accumulates approx 20mm in our area. Much more on higher ground. 10-20cm for Cardiff I reckon (potentially more depending on Friday) with bigger drifts.
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Updated Euro4 precipitation for 9pm tomorrow. Let’s hope it’s really underplaying precipitation. Great for me in Cardiff and the south east no doubt. But would be a disappointment for down west. Can’t see this happening though.
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Incredible conditions. Can’t remember cold like this myself but only young. And I mean depth of cold combined with wind chill not longetivity. Yes 2010 was spectacular but never seen -6c at 11pm in Cardiff with 35-40mph gusts too. Absolutely bitter. Dew points so low, everything just dry and frozen.
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No but it’s the wind that could cause some severe conditions tomorrow. Imagine heavy powdery snow and this strength wind, could be some big drifts.
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Don’t worry that wouldnt be the case. The little corridor of less amount of precip in western areas is because of topography and not because of the positioning of the low. If low moves east slightly like it has then still shouldn’t be any difference for Bridgend llanharan etc.
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Things have moved eastwards it seems yes but it does nothing to us. If anything it is an upgrade. It does mean areas east to us are likely to see more than originally expected that’s all. remember eastern Ireland was where a lot of precipitation has been on the models up until now. So there was plenty of precipitation to west of us for an eastwards shift....
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That’s only if the precip maintained same intensity. Will likely all but die by time it moves to us, especially with the approaching front. Doesn’t matter anyway, latest output great for snow for next 48 hours or so
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Snow for many and heavy. Lighter falls to the west of high ground but a good covering for all. Very heavy precip come late evening.
