bradymk

Can’t see any snow tomorrow for low levels of Wales. Metoffice mention it nowhere in their forecast? Euro4 shows nothing as does Arpege. Could be a developing situation but hoping to be surprised

The CFS the only model with a real grasp on the next two/three weeks at the moment ??

Best GFS run yet! Easterly set in and heights pushing into Greenland now!

Iceland going from a pretty slack light air to a deep low at just 72 hours!! Is that unusual or just me? 6z 12z

Meanwhile the GFS with it’s best Atlantic output so far......

I know all the talk at the moment is about the SSW and the potential impacts starting to now enter the model timeframes, but this has been covered well already today by other superb posts as always. Just wanted to highlight a wintry Sunday for some coming up and just how cold the air is that has been coming from the west at the moment. We have -10/-11c 850 temps from an Atlantic modified air mass on Sunday which is pretty impressive. Wet bulb down to below 100 for whole UK. Thickness also very low. For the majority this setup doesn’t deliver what we all crave the most and it will just be dry and cold. But Ireland and parts of the west could do well on Sunday but regardless these really are some chilly air masses hitting us from the west at the moment considering the modification.

Metoffice forecast interesting - Scattered snow showers push in later, with a covering in many places by morning. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Not seeing much interest Friday regarding snow. Looks mainly dry bar the odd isolated snow/sleet shower on Euro4 hi res. We’ll see though. More chances Sunday and Monday/Tuesday too. Then we got the potential SSW impacts

Looks like some snow from the system that moves across UK between 120 and 144 on latest ECM. Really is quite a cold westerly air mass that we have coming up prior to any SSW influence.

The reason there was no frost last night was not temp based, air was too dry (easterly feed) so you don’t get the visible frost like normal. However this cold spell has turned into a non event again to be honest here if it’s snow you’ve been after. Still plenty of time, think of Feb 1978. That was like Feb 18th!

Should increase once that shower that just hit Fishguard continues to move south Jayne. 20 mins/half hour

A large blob of heavier precip approaching Pembs now from the north/north west. Hope it stays cold enough there for you to see some good snow. Snowing even on the coasts I hear which is rare. Dry as a bone in Cardiff so far.

UKMO At 144. Those purples changing to lighter blues over the pole. Only 144 too but everything moving that bit further south and heights getting higher over the pole with time. Let’s see what ECM comes up with past 144

Big upgrade for Pembs! Looks the place to be tomorrow!

Pembrokeshire looks to be in decent location for tomorrow. Precip arrives as all snow early morning and heaviest here. Then it gets less cold temporarily before more snow showers in evening off northerly wind. Shame im in Cardiff. Here it looks like we will definitely see falling snow tomorrow, but the front looks to decay quite quickly over SE Wales. Light and patchy by the time it reaches here. Most in Wales look to see some snow tomorrow.

Hi Res Arpege 6z at +72 GFS 6z + 72 Everything just a little further west on Arpege. Cold fighting back a bit harder and the block to north east also slightly closer to the UK than on the GFS. May make all the difference come Thursday...

We know that those ECM snow depth charts, and any model for that case really struggle at that picking up convective showers, particularly at that range. I think best to wait closer to time and until hi res models come into play.

I think also due to a fire at the MetOffice IT building overnight as we are missing the whole run and a lot of features missing on their site.

His latest update sounds more promising though..... “emergent signs of SPV weakening late Jan rather than (as previously signalled) early Feb, but NB: that's *not* code for definite SSW. Let's see what unfolds.”

Not the wintriest of updates from MO, but Ian on Twitter noting the cold zonality phase so they must be seeing something a bit more wintry than the update “colder, windy Pm/Am cyclonic phase continues well-signalled with risk of snow at times. As for SSW, no reliable signals "soon", with stratospheric polar vortex f'cast stronger than avg rest of Jan in GloSea5.”

Probably coldest day of the winter in Cardiff so far today. 2c max, grey all day with a biting wind.

ARPEGE keeps colder air for longer next week. If you take a look at the ThetaE 850hPa on meteociel, you can see the colder air still in the south on Monday evening. In terms of comparing the Ukmo 144 chart above with GFS from two days, the UKMO has a more negatively tilted trough, better CAA down eastern Scandi, better angled heights north and lower heights over Central Europe than GFS had. Although there’s no doubt the GFS was closer at that point in time than ECM’s chart. But it had moved towards euros even at that point.

Sleet in north Pembs now with Snow falling on the Preseli’s. If the heavy precip stays around for a while I think we’ll see some falling snow at least here

Well only using the GFS snow charts, which are unreliable at the best of times. Nevertheless they show a white Christmas for most of England in the afternoon. After the outputs showing a couple of days ago for Xmas, it’s a big improvement. Although EC Ens always had colder runs showing. Still think output could get a little colder again for Xmas with a little more amplification than currently shown.

Area of snow moving onto South Wales now. Probably hitting Cardiff soon. Hopefully the precipitation doesn’t stay in channel. Could give a covering with those precip rates.