bradymk

The latest warning that includes Cardiff and rest of south east Wales is from the low pressure to the south not from showers. Northern extent of that very uncertain which is why it's "very low likelihood" but could be good if we get lucky!

Too much uncertainty still I imagine. Although if we're in the same position this time tomorrow with GEFS on board too, I imagine we'll see a v different wording. Only other thing is if MOGREPS isn't seeing it either. Easterly aside, latest metoffice warnings showing the uncertainty for Thursday with the northern extent of that low pressure! Be coming into euro4 more later.

A lot more showers on the day than modelled I imagine. It will be coming into range of high res Euro4 now later on today so will know more then hopefully.

The warning has just been updated. Warning area size has decreased to more western and northern Wales. i wouldn't read too much into it, winds will blow showers well inland but definitely greater risk of settling snow anyway the further west and north you are. Plenty more changes to come and that's before the potential easterly. im in Cardiff, I imagine we'll see some falling snow at some point Thursday although the beacons may sap most of the showers.

GEFS still not going for the easterly solution. High further south like the previous GFS runs with the easterly over northern Italy apart from one or two members. Not too much worry though, rather the op showing it, higher res too. On to the 12z's...

Have a feeling we need to get to the 00z runs tomorrow with them both still showing the easterly before I can get previous failings out of my head. Looking very promising now though, I would expect GEFS will follow the op now this suite with a lot of easterly members. Regardless of the easterly, we have Thursday and Friday first anyway! Let's hope Thursday is the start of a few cold weeks coming up! Pattern on the 6z if it established would be very hard to shift that's for sure

It's almost there at 162!!

The GFS still much flatter and not as good as the euros but every run it's becoming more amplified and slowly creeping towards the other outputs. One difference every run that you can notice is that if you look at that low that crosses the south on Saturday on the GFS, on previous runs, the precipitation from it went south west to north east through the whole of the UK almost. Now on the 12z the precipitation "slides" down along parts of south western UK only.

UKMO much better than GFS for Friday too brrrrrrr

UKMO +72, 13:00 Thursday, is that a new feature just to the south west of the UK? Also better than the GFS in the Atlantic again

ECM ending with the high over us. Regardless of the variation of positioning of that high towards end of the run past couple of runs, its great to see low heights throughout Iberia and Southern Europe. The run ends with low heights throughout Iberia and the med, one thing that has not come to reality really yet this winter, particularly Spain and Portugal.

Disagree, almost the exact same as yesterday's 12z 192 chart and we know how that ended.

I would agree. Over Amplification and a slight -NAO bias has always seemed to be a problem for it, but still the best model we have for medium range. Later on (day 9&10) its output is as volatile as any, especially recently. Let's hope tonight's day 10 is close to the mark The chart is from Twitter, shared by chief met of Weather Co Energy, same company as MJ Ventrice works for. They have some very good data but it's only what they share on Twitter. Nope unfortunately not BA, the chart is from Twitter. Would be interesting to compare, although we could probably create our own graph for the GFS and we probably wouldn't be far off. I imagine a clear bias to +NAO later on but to be fair it has improved since higher resolution has gone out to +240.

Completely off current modelling but thought i'd share this. This graph basically showing how ECM last month was over keen on blocking in the North Atlantic, particularly at longer ranges. A clear bias to wanting a -NAO particularly post day 10.

Well it's been a good week for the UKMO-GM if it gets this one right too. I know it wasn't as consistent as probably thought with the "failed cold spell" but nevertheless it was never interested in any long lasting cold and never got on board. Now not even a week later we have a mighty backtrack from the ECM towards it latest solution...

Pretty much the end of 18z Mucka!

Frustrating all the chopping and changing about late next week but just the uncertainty/different solutions possible. Until this period is modelled correctly, their is not much point in worrying too much in what the model shows after that either. The 00z FI was lovely but if it was wrong at Day 6 then it doesn't really matter. Now the 06z shows a different outcome at Day 6. So can't really trust its output after this too. Bottom line is let's wait to see what the models do regarding late next week/weekend and if we can get any agreement soon before getting too dissapointed with anything, but mehh it isn't half frustrating trying to get a decent UK cold spell.

The EC ens pretty consistent with the past few previous runs. The op a pretty good middle fit in the ENS

Too far eastwards for a Greenland high and northerly yes, but a few charts time after that and you'd have a good easterly.

Shame the ECM doesn't go to like +300 looking at the +216 chart. that trough is digging very far south to our west.

ECM very similar to yesterday 12z at 168, just slightly less amplified.

192 ECM chart a lot better than what we've seen the last couple of days!

12z Parallel, about the only one that is actually worth viewing tonight....

Yes many in Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland would probably be quite happy with the ECM. Those areas tend to do quite well from these setups as this is where the air is coldest and modified the least.

Pretty grim output overall for next 10 days at least. However, ECM does show snow showers Ireland and Northern Ireland on Christmas Eve and probably western hills of England and Wales too. Not great I know if you don't live on a hill but crumbs.... Massive +NAO/+AO coming up, but just remember this isn't always a bad thing if it is "temporary" and change does come down the line.