bradymk

Haha. Very true. It may certainly be a stressful upcoming week for us coldies but even though the ECM is not perfect, I am very happy considering only 3 days ago we were seeing this output for next Sunday. To this for next Sunday from tonight's run. Momentum has possibly swung in our favour and is building...

Some really frigid temperatures showing just across the water in Amsterdam from tonight's ECM run. A great xmas day run, still probably the more unlikely outcome obviously but more support brewing... Merry Christmas everyone, hope you've had a good day.

Disappointing ECM after the good 12z GFS. +192 JMA and GFS very similar though. This afternoon Day 9 ECM chart very different to yesterdays 10 day.

Fair enough, but I think the important thing here is that even if it isn't the MJO that is going to start forcing/dicatating the pattern, it is more the fact that the forecasted pattern for day 10+ at the moment reflects what the MJO phase 4 composite would normally be, which is a good wave 2 pattern? I maybe wrong however.

You can see what difference a more southerly track of Saturday's low does. GFS Arpege We shall see what euro4 shows Also, if anyone has a weatherbell premium subscription, there is now a new ECMWF Parallel model which was released yesterday. They're running the parallel model until it goes live in March. The resolution has improved quite a bit! Here is an example

Just wondering if anyone on here knows anything about the ECM parallel run that started running yesterday and where you can see it? Thanks.

As others have said, big disagreements still between the models and fairly early in the runs too. When you have such disagreements, you're always in with a shout i believe. GEM, GFS and UKMO attached all showing something different at 144....

Think as Lancia has also said above, the last point there in his blog is key as we go into end of December and into new year. Quote "Longer-term high latitude boundary conditions favor a negative bias to the AO including extensive Eurasian snow cover and low sea ice extent in the Barents-Kara seas. The key will be how active the energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere in late December, as early December looks quiet. However if the energy transfer remains quiet, the polar vortex will remain strong, the AO mostly positive and mild temperatures will dominate the mid-latitudes." We need some more influence from the troposphere. There were a few charts showing a week, two weeks ago with promising tropospheric activity that may have impacted stratosphere but these have not made reality. PS. Happy with the end of the ECM though, compared to some recent runs!!

December update for the CANSIP seasonal now up. Still going for the change in probably late January and into February. February does look decent on this model but then again it is a seasonal model and it is still 2 months away. January February March Here is the latest EC 32 temperature spread for de bilt anyway... Much better GFS run tonight too, GEFS parallel showing some decent members towards mid December. Will be replacing the old GEFS tomorrow too. Have a good evening.

NAO prediction for coming weeks from GFS, GEM and ECMWF from WSI. Trending back towards neutral after being highly positive recently. ECMWF monthly prediction precipitation shows a very wet week 1, before drying out in week 2. Becoming slightly wetter than average again for all in week 3 before finally drying out in the north in week 4 but staying wetter further south. The removal of the drier anomalies over Europe in weeks 3 + 4 and introduction of drier anomalies in Scotland could indicate possibly a trough getting into NW Europe through that period with some ridging up north. JMA Ensemble weeks 3 & 4 Pattern maybe starting to change middle to late December with a ridge building to the west with lower heights and a trough to our east.

true, with it being replaced Wednesday anyway, it does seem pretty pointless using the old one. Hoping it does well. I've noticed so far that it does tend to have a less diluted mean out towards 14 days compared to the old GEFS but as expected with increased res. Old one always tended to go to a flat zonal mean by time you got Into week 2 the majority of the time but seems less of the case with the new one. Eg) old GEFS mean day 14 new GEFS mean day 14 A clearer picture from the mean with clearly more members in agreement with the potential general pattern 2 weeks away...

A remarkably strong high pressure signal from a set of ENS for almost two weeks away! cool, cold, average or mild though....The rise in pressure signal strong, but I bet the temperature spread is rather large with the number of possible options this far out i'm sure. You seem keen on the GEFS parallel Nick, interesting to see how it does here and next few weeks.

Posted a few days ago about the growing trend then in both the GEFS suites for an increasing anti cyclonic signal as we moved into December. Seems much more likely now but big difference between ECM and GFS although haven't looked at the EC Ens yet. Uncertainty on where any high will end up but certainly a strong signal in GEFS for a anticyclonic period. Let's hope the high drifts north eastwards towards scandi rather than a high over the UK but I wouldn't mind either.... Huge ensemble mean though for day 14 from parallel. Quite a strong signal

That would depend on the location of any high. Must note though that i am not saying it is going to turn more anticyclonic towards the second week of Decemeber, just a potential signal i saw when flicking through the GEFS suite just now.

A possible growing anticyclonic signal as we move into December according to GEFS.

GEM best of the bunch so far tonight... Still do not think any model has got the heights to the north east and Siberia high quite right yet. Not that I think the high will move west enough to bring a cold spell but it may have more effect than currently shown on some models.

Snow cover chart from MetO model for tomorrow.

umm hello UKMO 144. Difference between that and ECM 168 chart yday quite different GFS cool middle of next week too. High to the east looking quite strong....

Not sure if anyone follows Eric Webb on twitter but he tweeted earlier a composite for your "typical" el nino december pattern. Here it is A few recent GFS runs have started to build heights to the north east/east towards the end of the run. Tonight's 18z though is the best example. 18z pretty similar to that composite and perhaps where we may be going into December. We shall see. Looking forward to some more cooler, drier and sunnier weather this weekend either way!!

Similar to this mornings ECM run, 12z GFS also giving the potential for another cold shot later on next week with the high in the atlantic rebuilding and pushing north again. Possible scandi high aswell to finish the run with hints in recent ECM ensembles too of height rises to our North East. No scandi high in the end but high in atlantic building north once again to finish....

Would never have thought we'd be seeing charts such as the hemispheric pattern in GFS 6z FI a week or two ago...pretty remarkable turn around, especially considering the signals we were getting at beginning of November. Good to see that some more seasonal temperatures are finally on the way and it would seem plenty of further opportunities for something colder down the line.

It seems to have been happening for a while now in terms of the euro high. Hints of it leaving at day 9 and 10 before it holds on as we get closer to the time. The ENS mean though a lot better than the op and does keep the high more to the south. Op Mean ENS mean Latest EC seasonal. Not one for seasonal models though.....

This El Niño keeps moving west....

Not much to add today and not much change in the outlook for the near future. Friday will certainly feel colder after what we have had recently but other than that the exceptionally mild weather continues with night time lows for here not dropping below 14c next two nights haha. Today ECMWF ENS showing that the stubborn Euro high may finally be starting to depart at the end of the run. Day 7 (left) euro high still strong as ever. Day 11 euro high starting to regress southwards with lower heights over UK and a return to more average temperatures for the time of year but staying unsettled. Below on the left is the Canadian seasonal model showing the expected December at the moment. Pretty dire if its cold you are after but the image on the right does show a change for Feb maybe highlighting what some others have been saying in regards to later in the winter but its just another seasonal model. Patience and a waiting game required for now, it looks like it may be a long few weeks in here but interesting to keep track on everything as always. Latest value for ENSO 3.4 now +2.576c making it at almost record levels. nino 4 also setting a record weekly but 1.2 anomaly dropping suggesting a more central based ENSO? Maybe...

No two winters or weather patterns are ever the same and this winter is certainly a lot different to 09/10 in many aspects but it does also have its similarities. Mean height anomalies for Mid November 2009, with the ridging developed in Eastern Canada. ECM ensemble mean to 384 hours for now, notice the similarities with blocking beginning to intensify in Eastern Canada with trough in US moving slowly eastwards. These aren't the exact carbon copy obviously and i am not saying we are heading for the same winter at all, but certainly similarities in the current output to how November 2009 started to progress. I posted the other day about July AO and following winter. Look how similar the height anomalies were for 2009 summer to 2015 summer... 2015 2009 Again this does not necessarily mean anything, just interesting similarities but this July did feature the second most negative Arctic Oscillation on record, second to only 2009. Out of the top 15 most negative AO July’s on record, 14 of those 15 featured a negative AO in the winter that followed. Lastly, current predicted AO for next few months. Mainly +ve start but -ve later..