bradymk

Yes 18z further west but Monday tricky, very marginal and may not be much precipitation at all for most areas come reality. Also, tomorrow night/sunday possible snow also marginal, looks a messy mix.

Possible snow early Sunday for parts of SE and E Wales, worth keeping an eye on.

Interesting shift south of the snow early Sunday on the GFS 18z. Has snow now affecting parts of SE Wales, parts of the south west and central southern england.

Colder ECM tonight. So many changes the past week. Some very cold nights monday and tuesday next week. Possible snow Sunday for some north western areas and then central areas. Tonight ECM -5c monday night in Birmingham. A bit further south, an ice day in Oxford Tuesday with cold hanging on in most areas until early Thursday. Plenty of changes to come.

Ah frustrating, definitely not going to be snow here then!

Showers seem to be almost dying before they reach me here in Cardiff, we'll see.

Well glad the UKMO is still decent at +96 and would rather that be the one showing the cold than the other round. But either way, some shocking changes at a normally more "reliable" timeframe, as early as 2-3 days on GFS. Difference at 96 between these two is pretty remarkable. All good fun though

Shocking start to the afternoon from the GFS. Trough more positively tilted, further north too with lower heights to the north. Bleh.

Don't worry Carl, you should see some tomorrow night into Friday, probably one of the best locations tomorrow night,

A week ago today, was that stellar ECM run. 6 days ago we saw the "proper" cold spell start to downgrade significantly across the models to almost a two/three day event. Next we started to see some improvements for the cold to extend into the coming weekend and maybe early next week. Now the last two days have seen a big upgrade again in the cold longevity with the GFS (yes the GFS) still cold at 168 (wednesday) when it was bringing mild weather in Sunday only 2/3 days ago. Models have been all over the place tbh. If this does come off, the UKMO model has not been 100% spot on of course, but its been a lot better at modelling this than the other two (from the data we can see).

GFS at 96 is better than 6z and 00z but still think its not disrupting the trough to our west enough and has it slightly too north. We shall see.

dont think so, trough to the west seems better aligned that on 6z and heights are slightly further north by Iceland? Early days anyway like you said

Pointing out the obvious really but the 0c 850 is around 300-350 miles further west at 162 than it was on the 12z and around 800-1000 miles further west than it was compared to Sunday 12z run. Just proves how the models do struggle with the return of milder air.

When we get to reality Ali, i doubt that precip will even make 90% of mainland UK. Look at 12z compared to 18z, further west and this has been the case the last few runs. Wonder if by this time tomorrow, it will even make it to Wales? Even on the 18z it fades out over Wales

I remember reading that met office outlook a few days ago where it said "the cold may be hard to shift" well..........

Haha wheres that slide Karlos?

Better than yesterday's run already at 96. Probably see more energy going SE this run than we did yesterday!

That snow on Monday Andy i dont think will even make it to the UK. Could be a good snow event but think it will stay out west come Monday as GFS corrects westwards.

GFS 12z Yesterday 144 Same time on todays run (120) Further west, trough more negatively tilted with higher heights around Iceland and southern Greenland. GFS 168 yesterday GFS same time today (144) Doubt monday's front will even make the UK if the westward corrections continue. The GFS clearly isnt a UKMO style output but it is slowly correcting the energy more SE.

Yes would agree with regard to it is just being average 2m temps until Friday (although below from what we've been used to). But ECM then shows three cold days Saturday, Sunday and Monday (although dry) and we could sneak a couple more days with a more favorable output later. Birmingham on 00z op doesn't go above 2c between Friday Night and late morning Tuesday and almost ice days Sat/Sun so would say it would be described as a cold spell. On to the 12z, lets hope the GFS shows some more trough disruption to our west early next week.....

ARPEGE Higher res model highly regarded by the Met Office. 114 output is good, better than ECM and GFS anyway. Has some snow running down eastern England thursday too.

168, London still -7 at 850, compared to +1c on the GFS. Cold much further west. Still don't think any of the models are anywhere near consistent enough to have a good idea of what will happen next week. 192 the mild air moves in on ECM (Next Tuesday), still maybe a bit too early for me.

Key difference between ECM and GFS is a more negatively tilted trough to our west and the higher heights around Iceland. Keeps the cold for longer

Look at the difference between GFS and ECM over the states at 120. High not quite as far north as on UKMO though. Edit: At 144, ECMWF has -6 850 line at around Swansea whereas GFS has the 0c at Swansea with -6 only hanging on to the far north east

Encouraging