bradymk

I think it's going to miss Cardiff to the west, can you believe it?! Looks a good shower too. Hard to tell

This is going to very close with this shower for Cardiff. Praying it's intensity stays and it's track stays the same as currently.

Jay that shower that went through Swansea is becoming more organised and not dying yet so Cardiff could see its first snow in not too long!!

Winds are going to swing more north westerly through the night which is good news for Cardiff and Swansea. It's cold enough now, there's a lot of precipitation around and even more activity over Ireland than earlier. I'd certainly be optimistic to wake up to a dusting. More organised band may affect South Wales around 2/3am. We'll see, hoping anything will settle instantly with the temps now, so we just need the showers. Places like Cwmbran, ebbw vale, Tredegar, Monmouth, parts of Swansea seen some showers already. Hopefully more to come!

Monmouth in the sweet spot for now. Nice little streamer setting up for there

Correct, a bit too WNW at the moment, for some of us.

Should be some more organised/merged showers towards and after midnight. We'll see

Dissapointing. Looked a good shower too. Started to die just before Newport, Sod's law!

Not yet, they're all going east, west and north of Cardiff haha! Confident for later..

Very jealous of anyone in Newport right now. You're probably gunna get a short but heavy snow shower in not too long! Currently in ebbw vale down to pontypool

Clear skies here in Roath, typical! Big shower heading for the Newport Area.

Still clear here Jay. Where about you?

Some showers north of the Cardiff area now. May miss me to the east slightly but obs have these as full snow showers now so hopefully anything that falls from now on tonight will be snow even to low levels. Ground dried up a bit after earliers rainfest too.

ECM still the most amplified out of GFS and UKMO at +72, although not quite as much as it's 12z run yesterday

JMA best so far this evening... more amplified than GFS at 84 hours (rest of the run out later)

Very similar pattern to the 6z overall. Although the high to our east slightly further south which means the coldest uppers go to our south and then the winds ending up more south easterly later as the high sinks slightly. But overall very similar. this chart for next Saturday very cold. Even developing our own cold pool.

3.1! Come on Cardiff you snow shield

Cold rain still in Cardiff. Around 3.9c. Temps dropping, hopefully it drops enough before the band leaves to see some falling snow at least .

Cardiff Airport Taff forecast is rain/snow for 14 to 17 UTC tomorrow, heavy rain before that but promising. Right on the coast too. I think most in Wales will see falling snow at least at some point tomorrow, be that from showers or the afternoon precip band.

Area of precip well worth watching early hours of Friday.

Yes although looking at the wind direction, probably a shower line more cardigan bay down to Swansea rather than a true Pembrokeshire Dangler from a straight northerly. I wouldn't be too disheartened if the band of precipitation in the daytime doesn't deliver, particularly if you live Port Talbot and further west.

Looking forward to Euro4 18z but I'm confident of seeing falling snow in Cardiff tomorrow at least. I imagine the last half hour/hour of the rain band will turn to snow to quite low levels even here. Some more rural parts of Wales, particularly Brecon/Merthyr etc could have quite a few hours of snowfall. It will all come down to the strength/depth of the low, as that will determine how much cold air it will drag into circulation. Quicker the cold air moves down from north west, more chance of it turning to snow. Some very heavy rain to come in the morning anyway, a period of precip moving south eastwards later on Thursday evening/early Friday morning too that needs watching. Looks like passing through Carmarthenshire, Swansea down into SW England.

If the low on Thursday is going to give us rain, i'd rather it just stay further south and hedge my bets on the colder showery north west flow instead for snow. Euro4 high res showing rain for South Wales Thursday. Still looking good for after that mind.

ECM best at 96 again, much more amplified over Atlantic, all good again so far.

Regarding Thursday and potential snow for south, ECM doesn't have the colder air as far south as GFS for midday.