bradymk

Mogreps or EPS I wonder? Looks a 12z run so perhaps Mogreps. but anyway from MetOffice for Xmas day.... Edit - +204 would make it a 00z run actually.

As other have said, it’s not so much what the last few charts of the 18z show for the UK, it’s more what it shows on the hemisphere view and what effect/forcing this pattern will have on the vortex. All in good time from there then hopefully.... a few gefs members also have the alaskan high at the end of their runs.

Yes. However this just some transient light snow here before the milder air and DP’s unfortunately sweep north eastwards across Wales Saturday morning. Nevertheless much better than the other models this evening.

DPs rising from south west as you go through Saturday. Some precip ahead of main front as discussed above which would be snow. Once main band arrives. Snow looks along a line of Derby/Nottingham north. However further east you go the further south the line comes. Eg) Peterborough when band first arrives there. Sunday - snow for much of Central UK (based on model data anyway) Sunday snow attached.

ECM has some light snow for Wales, parts of West Midlands, NW England and South west England late Friday night/early Saturday. This is ahead of the main band of precip later on Saturday. DP’s still below Zero for all and Snow level right down to Sea Level.

This from Ian a couple of months ago should help answer this one. Not sure which one of those was then used though for today’s.

Arpege is seeing that low to our west/south west (circled) to be a much shallower feature than the main models. I believe that feature still hasn’t even developed yet. Not sure myself, but if this did occur, would this help the pattern initially with less energy against the block or not much effect?

Don’t get too caught up on the day 8, 9 and 10 charts here. If we can get tonights ECM T+144 and T+168 to T+0, then I think the modelling of the Atlantic in the following frames will have changed quite a bit as it comes closer. Usually - less energy overall and more of this energy going under too. However it’s key to get that Scandi High to reality first.

A bit of info from Ian F - he is saying that the GloSea model is showing a significant warming in Jan.

UKMO still looking v good +144 this afternoon. Good start.

One consistent theme that is currently occurring in the GFS ops (that others have also mentioned above) All are relocating the PV out of Canada towards the end of the runs. GFS 18z would be lovely too. High pressure, cold and mainly dry later on. Would make a nice change. Hopefully the 00z continue with the general theme but with a bit more amplification overall like the GFS 12z op.

Icon 18z +120 chart has a shallower feature to south west = more chance of snow for some. As others have said, could be a surprise snowfall for some next week.

Quite a few eye candy GEFS members appearing now at the end of the 6Z suite.

Interesting Ian F said also that MetOffice seasonal model MSLP was skewed by -NAO later into Jan and Feb. GFS 6z a good position at +192. Should be better run coming up again here.

Arpege and Hirlam keen...

I reckon a good chance to see some falling snow tomorrow morning across mid wales and south east wales. Higher up the better of course, but do think early on that even lower levels could see a wet snow mix. Possibly some sleet/wet snow in Cardiff first thing. Further you go inland much more likely of seeing some falling before it “warms” up in the afternoon.

If we take the ECM at +168 two days ago And compare it with the ECM +120 from tonight You can clearly see that as we’ve got closer to reality, the model has; 1) Underestimated heights around Iceland area 2) Has started to disrupt the trough to our west more, it is more negatively tilted and a little more elongated. 3) heights in Europe lower than previously modelled If that trend continues in the next two days and the same for the subsequent frames after this, perhaps Day 10 will look a lot different come T+0 than it does now. This is the same for GFS too, not just ECM. Uncertain outlook but certainly upgrades in the mid term from the models. UKMO pretty solid. Going to wait a couple of days at least yet.

Well comparing yesterdays UKMO 120 with todays 96, Saturday may not be that unsettled in southern and central areas at all if this continued.

Whatever the scenario showing up in the op runs for the weekend, it seems we end up with the same result 10 days time regardless Certainly the potential to get very hot end of next week and more widespread across the UK too. And that’s of course after the possible 35/36c heat in the south east thurs/fri.

ECM Week 3 clusters looking mainly ridge dominated well into August too! (Twitter: kerry_mason)

Will the trough to our west be sharper and dig further south closer to reliable?? Here it is at 168 and 192. Wouldn’t take much....

GFS has the low diving south/south eastwards to the west of the UK late next week which may throw a ridge/plume ahead of it. Further west & south the better... ICON cuts off the low and the Scandi and Azores ridge start to link to our north and moving southwards. A little better all round so far this evening.

Very uncomfortable here in Cardiff at the moment. Temperature rose all evening after the cloud and spots of rain early afternoon. It was only 21c at 4pm. Rose to just over 24c now at midnight with uncomfortable humidity. Back to normal service of sun and high 20’s tomorrow. Remarkable spell of weather.

Something actually happening on the satellite pic! Heavy line of showers too south west and west of Exeter! I just realised this morning from Mark McCarthy at MetO, that until 10:00BST, any rainfall this morning counts towards June’s average rainfall. Supposedly a historical quirk of climate monitoring.

No breakdown anymore! (For now anyway) Arpege temps for Sunday. 33c in south. Could this be something extra special....trying not to get ahead of myself but the charts are looking wonderful again tonight.