bradymk

Cardiff "City" is not, but Cardiff the county is.

Is that 6z or 00z Tipster?

Pembrokeshire could be the place today. If it does turn to snow there, higher areas in Pembrokeshire could actually see the highest totals today. latest ICON has the highest precip totals and most intense precipitation there around 17:00. Latest Icon shows second line of precip (although lighter) then moving into South Wales early hours of Friday.

Going off past MetOffice warnings, although they can be issued anytime, they have a tendency to be issued between 10 and 11am. therefore be interesting to see anything during that time.

Lovely. Although you are right on the coast the wind will be offshore today which is good for snow. (ESE/E wind). I would keep an eye on the radar as it spreads north. MetOffice Euro4 model has widespread accumulations Central and North Pembrokeshire by late afternoon/evening. (5-10cm) Not too sure myself, too many models are showing different scenarios. Next update to models around 9.30/10.

It really does seem like a nowcast today. A real tricky forecast. where abouts on the coast are you?

Metoffice UKV for 8am - looks not far off And for 6pm Urgh.

Comparison this morning. ECMWF - bank, snows most of the night too. ICON - Not as good as previous runs as precip amounts have decreased quite a bit but still ok, particularly in south east and Pembrokeshire Arpege - Front completely loses intensity. Light snowfall only and possibly only rain or sleet in southern coastal low lying areas. Worst run so far. HIRLAM - still maintains intensity on the whole, particularly in the south east. EURO4 - maintains the front intensity. Perhaps rain or sleet on the coast.

Bit of a downgrade this morning tbh. Quite a few of the high res models have the front losing its intensity compared to previous runs. Going to go down to the wire take Arpege for example. Just light snow for many and sleet on coasts.

Down to just under -1c now in Cardiff already. These cold nights the past few days will definitely have lowered the ground temps quite a bit and a good temp for tomorrow now. even if it is rain initially, any snow should accumulate fairly quickly if/when it falls. Onto the 18z models next... Arrival of precip different on every model Jay. But somewhere between 2 and 4pm looks likely.

Latest ECM is best run yet. I am getting excited. tomorrow evening Friday morning 9am, still some light snow left over in the south best snow depth so far from ECM

Latest ECM for Friday afternoon is awesome for you! More snow.

Latest 15z Icon is as good as it gets for southern counties

UKV almost has no precip by 18:00. Strange? 12:00 18:00

Position of the precipitation on MetOffice UKV tomorrow at 3pm.

First models are out for 12z icon steady. Arpege both models decreasing intensity of precip slightly compared to earlier output but both still look good for South and east Wales in particular.

Hopefully the strong easterly wind doesn’t prevent Swansea getting in on the act like last time.

What do you guys think personally about the risk of sleety mix in Cardiff City Centre? ECM has a bit more of a mix on the coast but Euro4 looks steady and the best output for us in the city. Sod’s law the city is right at sea level next to the sea. thankfully the fetch over Bristol Channel is quite small too.

Yes Steve, SE facing hills look primed for some big totals. Looking a little marginal still for Cardiff on the coast but is always the case however confident with the corrections that we’ll be ok even here.

It is a still a little more progressive than the other models but less so each run now. Valleys look to be the sweet spot no matter the model. But for southern coastal areas to stay as snow, we want UKMO preferably. hoping for a good Euro4, first run that we’ll see Thursday properly

Sorry good spot, yes I meant that it is preferred if it moving from the south west to north east (front angled north west south east) Better angle

It’s the angle of attack that is literally key to us too. you want the line of precipitation angled north west to south east moving northeast wards. To explain what I mean, the angle on GFS isn’t that great for snow to continue as snow. Too much west to east movement rather than south west to north east. In comparison, If you look at UKMO model, the front is at a much better angle, reducing ingress of milder air.

Not really imo Jay. A slight push north initially of the precipitation but we’re talking minimal differences really. Although I know this can make all the difference for us but nothing to worry about here yet. Infact if you look at early Friday, 18z actually has the precip further south than 12z. Every run will likely fluctuate 50-100 miles maybe but we’re well in the game.

Please can this shower that is now heading for Cardiff not disintegrate as soon as it’s gone over the Beacons like the other 5 before!!

Ye and this has been an issue for wales since the start. Originally it looked like it would be later in day which increased our chances but not the case. Onto Thursday now which is a completely different scenario.