bradymk

On outskirts of Cardiff currently (around 150m tbf) but sleety rain and quite a lot of flakes in the rain too. 3c

Very hot in the east on Thursday from the 12z Arpege.

Looking at yesterdays run, it seems a degree or two too high in this area yesterday. eg) Pembrey was 27c and it had 28/29. However the standard temperature parameter only had 25c so that was too little! Standard temp parameter actually has 33/34c north london Saturday so using the "inbetween" rule. 35/36c possible Saturday in those areas.

Now I might well be wrong here come Saturday however since we were introduced to Weather.us for Model data which has access to euro4, I have noticed that the parameter “corrected temperature 2m” is usually more accurate for my location, particularly for scenarios like this, than the standard Air temperature 2m parameter. If you look at Saturday with this parameter, a 37c is shown North London (chart attached). Saturday has become hotter on Euro4 each run so far. Just to see how accurate this is, in Cardiff it has 29c for today at 5pm whereas the normal standard parameter has 26c. Therefore let’s see later how it does here later and if indeed it is closer to the mark. Interestingly Metoffice have 29/30 in their video forecast for here, but 26c on their computer generated forecast on website. I don’t know what the difference is or what is taken into account in the corrected temperature, perhaps someone else may know but a link below. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/united-kingdom/temperature-2m-corr/20190629-1500z.html

Some may clip the extreme south east but will eventually start to slide away south east now.

That precip to the east of Cardiff and Newport is just sitting there and has done all night. So so close to it but doesn’t want to make that final push.

According to UKV last update it was but can’t see it happening looking at radar currently. Here’s hoping it will although probably time for me to go anyway looking forward to seeing it in daylight!

Hope so! Although not sure it will. It is moving west but is just weakening as it does. Those darks blues and greens not quite making it.

Ye we’re hoping for the heavier precip over the bristol area to transfer west but not sure it is going too atm. Nice little line of heavier precip beginning to form to the east of Cardiff but will it move all the way...

UKV Metoffice latest update has it intensifying approaching 2am Tomorrow looking interesting now too.

Going to wait up to see what happens to the precipitation to the east of us as it continues to drift west. Stopped in Cardiff atm so be great if we could get some greens over us on the radar again.

Dying out here now in Cardiff. Still plenty of precip around on radar, hopefully it will start to pep up here again as it continues to drift east to west

Any reports in Pembs guys? Precip has pepped up all of a sudden there with green intensity on radar starting to form!

The area of green/yellow precip over Burnham on Sea and Bridgewater to watch for South east wales. Hour ago now

Settled in Cathays now. snow coming down nicely. Lovely bit of yellow precip about to cross the channel heading for SE Wales. ironically after looking marginal at first, the southern correction may end up with some areas of Cardiff getting the highest totals here.

ECM now - got the leading front which has been over Wales. 10pm - good area of precip over SE Wales Front is now pivoting more south than earlier expected and in earlier models runs. ECM has this for 2/3am. This was further north on earlier runs. Look how more of central southern England now in chance of widespread snowfall too. Liam Dutton tweeted about this. Stop panicking everyone! Especially SE Wales, still looks ok.

If you look at 12z euro 4 on weather.us site, there was a clear gap in precipitation around 7pm. The front then catches up to front infront of it. By 9-10pm, South Wales had heavy precip again. everything a bit later but it’s not quite as bad as we’re making out on here. ECM run also had main precip 8-10pm.

Guys it’s forming now. look at south west England coast on radar directly below Cardiff. Moving north now and reforming.

Precipitation starting to fill on the radar now. If you look south of Cardiff, the gaps are starting to fill again as the blues and the greens replace the gaps! hour ago now

Unbelievably marginal for accumulation in Cardiff. City centre - wet snow and wet ground no accumulation. Whitchurch which isn’t too far at all, has a small covering. 1c difference between city centre and outskirts preventing accumulation. Very wet here but snow coming down.

Hope it maintains its intensity when it reaches here.

Snowing in Cardiff City Centre but too wet at the moment. Good sign.

Rain here in Cardiff. AS expected tbh, latest forecast has improved though here for tonight. Front has arrived later and looks all snow from around 17:00 to 00;00

yes agree, should do soon although was always forecast to get to 4c for us low lying coastal areas before it drops back. So nervous, fingers crossed. Knife edge indeed for us down towards the coast.