bradymk

Yes, the ECM 240 chart may not be as good as previous days outputs however the artic high is STILL present even on a poorer run. People above have posted the 240 chart from european view only, its much better from hemispherical point of view. Anyway, still all too far away to get hung up about. Big warming still present on GFS and as Ian said above, JMA showing that the possible outcomes are still very varied.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec probably best you can find on web for precip data. http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html this is a good site too, which does up to date 10 day forecasts based on very latest ECM run data. Only basic but ECMWF don't give much away free!

seem to think it was this time last year. The words Shannon entropy and trough disruption are definitely a match though.

Ok big shift in the GEFS 12z around the 192-216 period. Around 16 members showing some sort of easterly at 216. GEFS 12z mean 204 - GEFS 6z mean same timeframe - big difference. A more positive shift towards a colder pattern again so far this afternoon

ECM 120 looks the best 120 chart of the lot (not that the others are good) Difference between ECM & GFS at 120 is quite marked. The low looks in a better position with better tilt compared to the other models

We've gone from a football low on the 12z to a rugby low on the 18z. Big difference in this run compared to the 12z set (excl gem) and proves that we still have a long way to go in this saga....

Are you able to say any more info about what it may be showing for later in the month/feb yet Ian? Cheers

They are for Holland though so more likely to be affected by continental flow meaning lower temps. London ens later will give a better indication, not a bad set of EC ENS though..

ECM ends with a quiet atlantic and winds start to switch more easterly/South easterly due to the low pressure in the med moving eastwards towards Italy. Although uppers are mild, surface flow would be rather chilly with rather low temperatures. On another note, today was the first full day without a weather warning for 6 weeks, remarkable!

ECM at 72, low pressure not as negatively tilted as yesterday however better than UKMO and GFS

Disappointing afternoon for cold weather in relative terms to yesterdays 12z runs but GFS ENS prove this is not a done deal by any means yet and GEM still colder than the rest. Over to you ECM...

Is this a metoffice hint to what GloSea5 might be showing at the moment for the future?

You have to remember that one of the things the models struggle with most is trough disruption. The 168 chart is still a long way away and the models will play around with westwards/eastward correction every run. A couple of hundred mile shift west before that chart gets to +0 and its a different story. Remember last winter how all of a sudden at +96/120 range, the models underestimated the amount of trough disruption? interesting times.

Click on UK map on ECM on meteociel, probably use the 0c/-1c 850 line as a rough guide.

Ive always loved the GEM nice 12z run, eagerly awaiting the UKMO.

Looks exactly like the thinking from the Met-O earlier, even a frost would be nice now though. Thats how desperate it is, chasing a day 10 anticyclonic chart hoping a frost chart in FI comes to reality haha.

Yes and then GEM building heights to the north & N/NE at end of the run too?

Personally feel that the low-res ruined the potential of the run. Like Nick says above, the low isnt as shallow and doesnt fill as quickly as we would like but I still think it would of been a better outcome than what the low-res just churned out when it phased the low. Great strat forecast though again.

Not backing the ECM 32 up, but to be fair, are there any reliable long forecasting models out there at the moment? The ECM32 is not great but is the probably the best available for the timeframe it covers. The problem is rather that forecasting accurately past 15 days is still no where near as accurate as everyone would like and the models (EC 32, CFS, JMA) all reflect this and take the stick. Modern day society needs and wants more accurate longer range weather forecasts and Improving longer range forecasts is probably the next biggest milestone to be achieved in weather forecasting.

I'm not entirely sure but i believe the BBC Monthly Outlook uses just the ECM 32 Day whereas the MetOffice extended outlook uses the 32 day alongside some of there other models (MOGREPS-GEO4 etc) to get a more detailed picture? Im not sure though so hopefully Ian F is around to answer as it is a bit strange that the outlooks differ like that

looks pretty bad, possible sting jet formation through Monday looking at both 18z NAE and EURO4, SW eng, Wales and N England

Lets remember that the potential cold isnt likely to happen within the current timeframe of the ECM op? We are still looking at day 10+, but we can use the Op to see if this pattern change is taking effect however with the ops changing constantly, why not stick with the more consistent ENS, more especially ECM.

bit early yet for the timeframe people are concentrating on although GFS 12z shows better heights to our N at 144 between Iceland and greenland and a stronger arctic high. Just catching up on GEFS, ECM ENS, somewhere around our latitude could get a very decent cold spell going into mid jan but whether that includes our little island, who knows. Some stunning GEFS 6z members and EC Ens consistent with the trough over Euro

Where are you going?

ECM sticking with its 00z output or rather still in disagreement with GFS & UKMO. interesting. GEM caught my eye too aswell as GEFS. Maybe look towards NE as Nick said?