bradymk

Hi Ed, you still thinking a possible northerly around Xmas? I thought this was a plausible outcome but im having second thoughts today. Also, still good consistency for that warming in FI, lets hope it shows on ECM in a few days, i think it will with how consistent GFS has been with it.

I would say thats correct about out to day 8th with no cold insight atm within this timeframe however I think closer to Xmas is a possible shout if the jet becomes more amplified, needs to be more amplified on the 18z for me. Overall, not a bad output with potential longer term once more. I think we're all going to need a break soon Steve, been a long few weeks but its sure been exciting more to come!

Surprisingly we do actually get quite a lot of frosts in Pembrokeshire, well where I am anyway, right on the coast not so much obviously but inland it can still get cold. My weather station got -4.2c last night so a chilly one indeed.

ECM ensembles are a lot better tonight, haven't got 00z to compare for certain but there are more colder options in the longer term tonight. Same can be said about GEFS this evening, trending colder in the long term.

Just because conditions experienced are not cold/snowy or of any bias, this does not mean that a forecast is not correct. Surely if it is statistically correct it is a correct forecast whether the weather experienced was remembered or not. The problem is some people think below average temperatures in winter results in cold snowy weather which isn't the case. I think GP's forecast has gone well so far, and if another cold spell materialises at the end of the month I think December will come in below average when the forecast is only average anyway as Ed said.

The GEFS ensemble mean from t192 to t240 continues to show a mid atlantic ridge and also south eastwards movement of that low, encouraging stuff towards 20th and beyond.

Ok thanks

Sorry Ian if you can't answer this but just out of curiosity as its the same band of precipitation that looks like flirting with us in West Wales, any signal for light snow here at the same timeframe. No problem if you can't answer. Thanks

and our FI eye candy comes after the low dives SE. A cold but also very snowy scenario but obviously way too far out but hey more potential, more cold charts like this on future runs as this week goes on I feel, especially if upstream amplifies enough. Problem with this run is how it does get to that in FI, was very near in earlier timeframes

Low dives SE at 264 with UK on northern side of the low, all FI however more and more potential seems to be showing in latter stages, maybe a trend, maybe anomalies

Could the next ridge coming out of the Eastern US ridge northwards towards greenland, maybe, we shall see.....

Yes good post SK, surprisingly good agreement (14 out of 20 in some form like you said) for a mid atlantic ridge around the 20th from the 12z GEFS ensembles and the ensemble mean. The unreliable CFS but for me the anomaly charts have not performed too badly recently has also picked up on a mid atlantic/greeny ridge with lower heights over scandinavia in weeks 3 and 4. Be interesting to see if 18z ensembles continues this theme, Matthew

Could be worse, could be here in Pembrokeshire where we havent since Dec 2010 where we only had a couple of inches then even though we had the severe cold. Like you said lets hope for a favourable change over the next few days but if we can get the pattern more amplified which I think it will towards Xmas then i think height rises to our NW and a northerly flow is plausible as the trough over us continues to disrupt. I cant see a severe cold spell but lets hope some more cold charts start appearing over the next few days from a coldie pov. I would take a week or two of atlantic for a christmas/new year northerly

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvfeatured.php?code=YWGDiiuTGcM <<<<< link interesting longer range video today from Simon Keeling, I think he isnt to far off the mark here with cool end to december and start off january to a more colder set up after the first week of Jan. He has been good recently and the charts he shows are performing relatively well. Shorter term, i think its time to move on regarding the end of the week

yes agree we need any residual energy to be in the right place however potential and in with a chance is better than no chance at all and like you said, its miles better than most December. For me, a lesson learnt from the last few weeks but somethimg ive seen all too often and something that will show new members how hard it is for decent cold and snow synoptics on our tiny island.

Reading through the last few pages in here nearly made me scream! I can see why everyone is deflated, but for me there is an equally good chance of cold weather as milder weather in the next few weeks. The GFS is teasing us with some colder options towards christmas which i think is totally plausible. Even after that Ed has said he expects a more significant warming of the strat soon so please stop the depressive posts because we could be looking at more good charts popping up on the models towards the end of this week i think

Yes TEITS, i think the resolution may be an issue here initially. The next week or so could be follow your op runs rather than your ensemble means if the ensembles are blasting away the block to the east. From a cold point of view, hopefully we can now delay the atlantic attack as an atlantic attack does look likely now but details still very uncertain. After this, well i think we are seeing our next potential cold spell already with the high ridging further and further west with a GH possible. A northerly looking christmas imo looks plausible at the moment and hinted by a few others. But obviously too far out to say with any confidence at the moment. Shorter term, friday looks a concern for the SW, some heavy rain falling on saturated ground is the last thing people there want. Hopefully this will be downgraded but the potential is there atm for a very wet/windy friday

Yes agreed, GFS and UKMO would be snow for Wales with UKMO being the better option. If your looking at 850 temps, 0 to -1c should be fine in this setup as SE winds are blown in from the cold continent with low dew points also. ECM would still bring no snow but i do expect it to backtrack this evening and i feel the models are finalling gettig a grip on the end of next week. For me, a significant upgrade overnight and i think some parts of Wales will see significant snowfall towards next weekend. I also think that we could end up staying cold and dry with the atlantic going to our south but i would say this is a low chance at the moment. Have a good day, Matthew

Afternoon all, First of all, thanks Oldmetman, great post as always and hopefully that will lift a few spirits. Now for my amateur look today. Its been an exhausting few days model watching but the fun never stops. I see "mild" being mentioned for the next few weeks by a few people on here today but is it really going to be mild? GFS Ens all over the place at the moment and I also think that along with the GFS and ECM, are a bit too progressive with the breakdown next week. Even after the swift breakdown being shown by GEFS, although the mean for 850hPa temps will rise to around 0/-1c mark for the rest of the run , the surface temperatures are a different story. There is a lot of scatter but the mean rises after the early week cold weather to the 6c mark but then drops slightly to 4/5c and stays very similar for the rest of the run. Now i know the scatter will affect the mean but even if we have a swift breakdown in the coming week, I can't see this "mild" "zonal" weather that a few have been on about today. It does look wet though, especially for the west which is a big concern as conditions here are still very saturated and further rainfall is not what they want at the moment. The met office 6-15 day also reinforces that average to below is the theme after the breakdown so I think a mobile westerly theme will be the story from next weekend for a time but not mild and not cold, average to below average, rainfall highest in the West with some hill snow in the North. Just something else out of interest, the GEM caught my eye this morning at 240. Will be interesting to see on any other future outputs whether that high ridges further north and the low to dive south eastwards. A few GEFS perturbations also showed some good charts in the latter stages with some showing northern blocking towards Greenland and some with another Scandinavian high. A long way out i know and some will say its FI etc, but there is still plenty of potential for cold in the longer term especially if we can get the MMW that GP has been eluding to. An improvement on the GFS 12z for the breakdown if its a snowier breakdown you want and it may be Tuesday before we know exactly what may happen regarding any breakdown. Also wanted to add the JMA 30 day that was updated yesterday. For days 9-15 it still shows strong heights to our North with low heights to our south and a strong jet through Iberia. Completely different to what the models have been showing as this chart would still show the potential for NE and E winds into week 2. Not sure about this though, looks on its own but it has been good recently. Have a good evening, Matthew.

Mild i dont think is one word that will describe the next few weeks. What is showing on the models is not mild but it is milder than what we are going to experience next few days but overall i think the period will be average to below average. Not cold, not mild, 5/6c mark. GFS ens show this well, they might nearly all show a breakdown but the mean is still at 4/5c throughout the whole run. For me, that isn't mild but we will see what the weather brings. The GFS 6z ensembles ended in some quite good charts towards the latter stages and GEM showed not a bad chart at +240 this morning. I know you will all say, its FI etc, but its better having potential with a chance than no potential and no chance what so ever.

It is quite painful reading back the forum from the 5th of December....anyway over to chasing the next cold spell, it wont be long!

Im not one to get too down on model outputs as i have seen this all too often, its something annoying and you get used to it but i do think the GFS is still being too progressive. Were moaning about the easterly being downgraded from 144 mark so why cant the atlantic be upgraded at same timeframe. If everyone has been saying FI is early, why so much confidence in later outputs now. Even though i feel the GFS is wrong with this atm, i feel its a big ECM run amd ensembles tonight, an important one for sure

Might not look it at face value but im liking the Gfs FI here, a few tweaks and some good charts. Without worrying about longer term, we still have potentially a week of very cold weather first, but some christmas cold would be a bonus Matthew

Would you believe it another huge scatter in the ensembles past day 8 range. Lots of different outcomes in there, quite a few good runs aswell. Until day 8, very good agreement now for an easterly with the mean at around -6c 850 but quite a few runs below this at around -7/-8c mark. Longer term, well 12z shows a few runs below -10c 850pha and some above +5 so pretty good gefs ensemble agreement in the long term once more......i joke. Exciting few weeks coming up, keep looking for signs of a GH and the relocation of PV in long term, this will cause more havoc again with the models. Matthew