bradymk

Not bad 12z's at all so far. GFS could be a classic battleground and I feel it is overdoing the atlantic post +180, some interesting times ahead folks, some confusing posts in here. Matthew

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london Yes noticed that but London ECM ensembles show the control is colder for London than it was for De Bilt and the mean around the same as it has been the last few days. Like y ou said, the UK could possibly stay colder for longer and I think this is what we might see in this situation. London ensembles may become a better guide than de bilt. Matthew

Yes a great update from the MO, a bit of a ramp from them but still being cautious about milder interludes SW. Overall a great update, very encouraging!

My run of the 00z's goes to the GFS control. The PV moving into Siberia after the easterly with lots of snow throughout the run. GH sets up once the PV is in Siberia and this is what I really hope and think could happen following the easterly. Maybe a slight atlantic influence for a time.

apart from where I am in Pembrokeshire because it never snows here, but could this be the one time?

Also, just for a bit of fun, everyone take a look at the ECM +240 chart. Excellent, that would bring huge significant totals of snow to the west of that low pressure. Where is Wales? to the west a long way off though

Great short term ensembles, good support and clustering now below sub zero at least at de bilt.

and to throw netweathers servers into lockdown, imagine if the ECM is a mild outlier......

216 even colder, wow! Being in Pembrokeshire West Wales, an easterly brings us very cold but usually dry weather so it is not my favourite cold weather evolution however these charts are IMMENSE, you know its a great run when you save the images to your computer

am i seeing this? I said wow when i saw it but now ive seen you post this, i just said wow again haha JS saying perfection is rare

A great 168 chart, the 6 to 7pm good feeling is taking over

GEFS Control run very similar to its 6z run so far. Great to look at Ensembles now out to t192, a very impressive ensemble mean, another cold suite looks likely. Short ensemble diagrams with the mean below -5 at 850, with quite a few runs below the mean at around -8 mark.

GEFS Ensemble mean very good so far, good agreement with the op at 132 hours

happy that we now have model agreement for the SW to move South eastwards. GFS 12z another outcome and expect more regarding length/severity of cold but shortwave dropping SE is the main thing initially and the "big" 3 all say now that it heads south eastwards. Like Kold mentioned in an earlier post, if the GFS is overdoing any energy in the atlantic, then this will make a lot of impacts on the rest of the run. This is not from a cold bias but I do think the 12z fi looks slightly implausible and against the trend for vortex shift towards siberia. I do think retrogression is plausible after a possible easterly and this morning NAEFS charts back this up and GP said this morning about retrogression to a GH in the longer term.

GFS precipitation charts are not high res and really are useless at most timeframes let alone that sort of range so don't worry about anything precip charts show. Another impressive run from GFS and I would say now that next week, a good confidence level of a NE/Easterly but now it is how cold will it be? Ensemble means impressive and ECM Ens have handled this relatively well from the start.

Any shower activity should fade this evening slightly, but yes temperatures dropping like a stone. Uppers at -5/-6 this evening so snow is possible but looks unlikely this evening. Classic irish sea streamer though.

what shortwave? GFS 12z trickling out frame by frame with hundreds infront of there computer screens refreshing every second anxiously hoping for a good run, anyway this run looks good so far, crucial few frames coming up but looks good.

Those GFS graphs are not at a high resolution so don't take them too literally http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations-hd/3h.htm <<< The GFS precip in high resolution or use NAE which is even better.

Science is about trends, patterns, anomalies and no bias and this run is not inline with the trend, more of an anomaly and will be an anomaly until other models suggest otherwise or back it up which is highly unlikely imo. An anomaly does not mean it is wrong but until it becomes a trend or pattern, it is highly unlikely. Awesome ECM ensembles tonight btw, it is becoming more interesting every day at the moment. Sometime next week could be the start of a long term cold spell, lets hope (from a cold perspective) that this trend continues on the models. Regards, Matthew

yes, phew it goes SE

For us in Wales, Thursday is still a day to watch with the complex low moving SE through the country and as this moves SE, there is the potential to change the winds to an easterly wind with the rain turning to snow on the back edge. Only potential at the moment but the 6z op has support from the suite so will need to see what the other runs offer this evening. A cool week for sure coming up with colder and milder days but never mild, at best average. Long term still huge potential mid month onwards with now even more ensemble support for height rises to our NE with easterly flow and chance of retrogression. For us in Cymru, an easterly is mainly dry and cold apart from the a few showers in the East however approaching and stalling fronts can deliver huge snowfall totals with the cold block in place. Going to be an interesting week model watching and an interesting December for sure. Matthew

My first post in here, I am a bit of an amateur so go easy A cool upcoming week for all with a few colder days mixed with a few milder days. Area of rain pushes in tonight and as this meets the colder air, some snow this evening and tonight for NE England and Scotland, mainly on higher ground but some transient snow to lower levels for a time. Milder air then for tomorrow with a wet start but becoming brighter with showers in the north and west. Tuesday a colder day again with showers for northern and western coasts, some of these may be wintry, mainly dry in the East. Northerly flow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and it will be a cold night with frost for many and some sleet/snow showers for NE Scotland once again, more showers in the W but these mainly rain or a wintry mix. Thursday is a day to watch imo with low pressure moving SE across the country and as it moves away, potential for winds to change to an easterly direction with rain turning to snow for parts of the south but not anything more than potential at the moment. Friday colder again with northerly winds with sunny spells after a frost for most. Ice maybe an issue For the weekend, temperatures increasing slightly with a westerly wind but still average to below average temperatures. Sunny with wintry showers in the north and mainly dry in the south but a few showers are possible, especially in the west. Beginning of next week, low pressure looks like it will move SE through the North Sea and winds will change to north of west again for a time with it turning colder on Monday with wintry showers in the North and East. Longer term, the models and ensembles and the stratosphere now pointing towards colder weather becoming more dominant as we progress through the month. ECM ensemble mean was very good this morning and the ensembles seem to becoming colder and colder, with the GFS 06z ensembles being the coldest GFS ones long term so far. ECM And GEFS ensembles in good agreement today for pressure rise to our NE so im quite excited to say the least. I do think that 15th or 16th is around the time where we really see some "real" colder weather here in the UK. Scandinavian High with Easterly winds with the coldest conditions probably in the South. Also, Interesting post from Ian about the Met thinking that the Scandinavian high is the most likely option with fronts approaching SW. Until then, cool is the word with some cold days as winds turn northerly and also some milder days as winds turn more westerly but never mild, more like average to below. Frost becoming more common. Have a good week, some exciting model viewing coming up this week for sure, Matthew

A cool upcoming week for all with a few colder days mixed with a few milder days. Area of rain pushes in tonight and as this meets the colder air, some snow this evening and tonight for NE England and Scotland, mainly on higher ground but some transient snow to lower levels for a time. Milder air then for tomorrow with a wet start but becoming brighter with showers in the north and west. Tuesday a colder day again with showers for northern and western coasts, some of these may be wintry, mainly dry in the East. Northerly flow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and it will be a cold night with frost for many and some sleet/snow showers for NE Scotland once again, more showers in the W but these mainly rain or a wintry mix. Thursday is a day to watch imo with low pressure moving SE across the country and as it moves away, potential for winds to change to an easterly direction with rain turning to snow for parts of the south but not anything more than potential at the moment. Friday colder again with northerly winds with sunny spells after a frost for most. Ice maybe an issue For the weekend, temperatures increasing slightly with a westerly wind but still average to below average temperatures. Sunny with wintry showers in the north and mainly dry in the south but a few showers are possible, especially in the west. Beginning of next week, low pressure looks like it will move SE through the North Sea and winds will change to north of west again for a time with it turning colder on Monday with wintry showers in the North and East. Longer term, the models and ensembles and the stratosphere now pointing towards colder weather becoming more dominant as we progress through the month. ECM ensemble mean was very good this morning and the ensembles seem to becoming colder and colder, with the GFS 06z ensembles being the coldest GFS ones long term so far. ECM And GEFS ensembles in good agreement today for pressure rise to our NE so im quite excited to say the least. I do think that 15th or 16th is around the time where we really see some "real" colder weather here in the UK. Scandinavian High with Easterly winds with the coldest conditions probably in the South. Also, Interesting post from Ian about the Met thinking that the Scandinavian high is the most likely option with fronts approaching SW. Until then, cool is the word with some cold days as winds turn northerly and also some milder days as winds turn more westerly but never mild, more like average to below. Frost becoming more common. Have a good week, some exciting model viewing coming up this week for sure, Matthew

Well its the first day of winter and what lovely jubbly model outputs to go with it. Thinking back to how I felt at this point last year makes me even more excited this morning. Anyway, some great model outputs this morning and it now does look that after Mondays mild blip it may stay cold and below or well below average for quite some time apart from the odd mild blip here in there in parts of the south and west. Longer term JMA ensembles above were updated yesterday also, not sure how good these are but looking back they have been fairly good recently. 2nd week on the left, 3rd and 4th week on the right, black circle over the UK as it is pretty hard to find us otherwise. I am not sure about these as I think that heights will be to our NE and not over greenland but i might be wrong For a bit of fun, its the first day for CFS January forecast anomalies today, Not a bad chart at all with high signal for HP to W and N of UK. Ps. The MetO Update is excellent!! Matthew

Another cold GFS run before t192 with more low single figure daytime maxes. It all depends on where the heights go after us and where the PV is displaced to which will determine whether it will be cold/snowy, cold/dry or mild/benign week after next, plenty more changes to come in the models though but before t168, a good run imo, brrrrr!