bradymk

Depends what your defining as cold?

I wouldnt say that CC, a very interesting 10 days coming up i feel, more for some than others, further north you are the better but widespread below average temps with chances of some snow depending on the tracking of lows. 120 fax chart is one chart that shows the potential next week. Lets see what the overnight models show, a few surprises for all next week i would say, increasing the further N you are.

If you love cold frosty weather and fog then this is your run with some very cold nights under that high. So a good run for surface cold but not if you want snow. However huge differences between GFS and the other models. Hints at heights rising to somewhere to our N towards the end of this run aswell but where is favoured for this at the moment? Unsettled or anticyclonic? unsettled for me at the moment, even though the GFS has shown this for the last few runs, i still favour the ECM/UKMO solution. Could be some interesting weather next few weeks, a few surprises i feel. Matthew

Also, looking at the hemishperic view of the p vortex, it is wonderful to see with it nearly gone to the ENE , but unfortunately and a bit of bad luck, too much energy in the canada/greenland segment.

http://www.weerplaza...den&element=tta chilly set of ecm and GFS ensembles with a bonechilling ECM op run, brrrrr far from mild but still a large spread fairly early on. http://ds.data.jma.g...map1/pztmap.php These are the JMA ensemble anomaly chart which are updated every Friday and i have found them very good over the last few months so will also be interesting what they show tomorrow along with the ECM 32 day.

Well as Nick F said about the amplifying trough over N America, this is shown by both GFS and ECM at similar timeframe this evening. Subsequently, a mid atlantic ridge then forms on both models aswell so a period to watch imo Matthew

Not a bad JMA tonight. Amplified again in its latter stages and i wonder where that low is going at t192. A colder run than GFS (not that the GFS is mild) and I still think around end of next week (7th or 8th) could be interesting for a time. Lets see what the ECM shows.

Great post Nick and in the 12z, the PFJ does amplify in the timeframe that you were alluding to in your earlier post. Could be a timeframe to keep an eye on. Matthew

Thanks for the explaining that Ok will keep an eye on that. Matthew

Been said a few times over the last few days but still a big difference between the GFS and higher resolution NAM at +84 regarding the low south of Greenland. http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO== NAM http://www.weatheron...0&ZOOM=1= GFS http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html ECM Ensembles, not bad, look at the control run!

I know the first low will be a bit cold and damp but the second one, because it is a lot more to the south, will it bring alot more snow potential? I know FI is at 144 but that low at 216 is south of the country and looks interesting from my point of view. Is that where we need to see the low at 144? Thanks

Can't understand some posts in the older thread this morning? For me, another good run from the ECM, with a low diving SE through 216 and the cold pool still to our NE, just. But overall, not a bad run.

have a look at the hemispheric view

Yes as expected, quite a few with mid atlantic ridge though, a lot of potential at that timeframe i feel. Matthew

wow, at t192, the NE wind is back!!

Looking at this mornings output, one thing that looks certain about this atlantic incursion is that it isn't going to be mild, and the potential for something better if we get a slider low. GFS Ensembles look cold, with only 850hpa temps rising at the end and briefly as the atlantic comes in. Good news from Matt about ECM 32 day.

haha yes Nick so frustrating. IMO though, the improvements upstream are a positive even though the shortwave ruins it on this run. Now to see what GFS does with this in future runs, still amazes me how exciting all this is but yet so frustrating.

so he upstream pattern improves again on this run moving more towards UKMO model once more but then.......a shortwave. ARGHHH could of been a great run

A decent set of ECM Ensembles and the mean is not bad at all, especially for t96 and also right at the end where the ensemble mean also hints at heights rising once again to the W/NW. Matthew

the high res NAM and GME look pretty decent, all to play for still imo

Yes the NAM is encouraging, however a slight rise in temperature looks more likely now for a time but the long range prospects are still very encouraging. Even if the 12z are bad news in the short term, im weirdly excited to see what their output is, have we ever had so much disagreement before t96? Looking forward to seeing where they go, keep an eye on the higher res models like NAM and GME. Matthew

GME higher resolution model which only goes out to t+72 is encouraging this morning, shows the low deeper and starting to move back westward. +t72 chart

I didnt think NOAA did any updates on sunday Nick but some welcome news indeed. A manic 18z coming up. Matthew

I might sound a bit repetitive here but even with the ECM and a few other models not on the cold side this evening, imo we still have the most important people on board at the moment and that is the professional people at the MetOffice. Plus countryfile forecast for end of the week showed the low not progressing eastwards so who knows what is going to happen to that low. A nervous 96 hours or so though. Hoping the fax charts stay with the raw output which i think they will but once again, more runs needed.

Be interesting to see in the coming day or two when the greenland low comes into higher resolution models like the GME to see what these show. I will be happy if the fax goes with the raw output. Countryfile Friday pressure chart forecast not with ECM. Matthew