mpkio2

Sorry was away to report - was babysitting nephew. Anyway, has quite some heavy snow in Central London from around 12.00 - 10p flakes fell from sky! Although, rain on ground allowed nothing to settle. Big waste, but lovely to see all the same. ~mpkio2~

I have to agree with you here, Danny. Usually likely places like NW Britain and NI do well in these set-ups. We get the odd snowflake and sleet here and there but noting substantial. I'm going in with low expectations and not expecting much, so if anything unusual does crop up next week, it will be a plesant surprise.

Well, yesterday's evening forecast for "London", weather forecaster teased by saying next week could include something "Wintry"... At least BBC Weather are hinting that something other than rain "might" be falling in the capital next week... Link Below..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

Hello all once more! Hope everyone had a joyous Christmas and celebrated the New Year in style! Decided to take a break from model watching during the festive period- To those who received snow and cold between 27th - 29th December; hope you enjoyed it as much as possible! It seems another cold spell may, potentially, be heading our way (Though doubt and uncertainty prevails within model suites alike!). ECM picked up on this trend in its 12z run on New Years Days.... 12z ECM 01/01 t216: Though of course, detail is different to what models are predicting for the same time frame, it still picked up on the TREND. I have stayed lurking on the forums since yesterday when an almost outstanding set of run in favour of cold was being shown, with a Euro vs GFS battle commencing and a sublime METO update also in favour of cold. I, in most of these circumstances, withheld from jumping on with excitement, seeing how in most of these situations where HLB starts to set up shop and change the NWP pattern, kept my mouth shut and took (And still taking...!) a, somewhat more, conservative perspective with what is unfolding before me. For although as encouraging as the signs were yesterday, it was nowhere near a "done deal" at all! As the past few winter seasons should tell us, a surrounding and almost landslide support of one solution does in no way mean that the favored weather will be the reality of said result! mpkio2 said (November 19, 2017: "I haven't been really active on here because, as I stated above in my earlier posts from a week ago, I expected the models to "flip-flop" around with the upcoming pattern and descending AO - it happens every time when a pattern like this wants to set up, with inter-runs saying "mild" : aggressive: one run and "cold" :cold: the next...or even, as we#ve seen over the past few days, the models lock onto a pattern, only to latch on to a new one a few runs later!" As I stated above in my post, when the models were "flip-floping" just before the cold end to November- beginning of December cold spell, I take no one model as gospel, especially when dealing with a pattern change that encompasses many telecommunications that are occurring as we speak (Telecommunications that affect the overall weather pattern that we could receive!) As most posters have commented thus far, usually a middle ground solution between all models will, likely, come to past. In these kinds of situations, its always best to find a place in the models where all models come to an agreement (Thus to avoid any heart-ship or disappointments! ). As I kept on repeating during November...."What the TREND/THEME in the models?" Well, so far....? 12z GFS 04/01 t120: 12z ECM 04/01 t120: 12z GEM 04/01 t120: 12z UKMO 04/01 t120: Not bad agreement at all! Could even take it FI further to say t144 up to this point, seeing how all have a low-pressure system to the west of the UK too! What all models agree on this far from a THEME/TREND perspective is: High pressure in the Arctic (Around NW of Canada area), PV over Canada/GH, Low pressure coming off GH and bumping up against a high pressure situated around Scandinavia/Europe (Sceuro HP, I guess...?), Low off Alaska and set up around Russia. So the overall theme and trend is there, but of course, the detail is still different in each model. As many knowledgeable posters have pointed out (Glacier Point, Tamara and Catacol to name a few!), is that telecomuncative drivers are the reason we are seeing the output in the models, because they are occurring now. If we get into a favorable position with them (e.g. GWO Phase 4, High AMM, amplified MJO to name a few), then, "perhaps" a more amplified Scandy block will build in allowing for a more sustained cold spell. With the AO forecast to dive into the negative territory, it's no wonder the models are struggling with the approaching change in the overall NWP pattern..... Although, this forecast is all based on ensembles, and thus is only still a "forecast". So, I am in no way believing anything after 9th Janaury 2017, as all models do something vastly different after this point. Anything after is, just for fun FI! As always, I word caution and not take every single model run at face value. Sit back, analyze, discuss. But don't put all your chickens into one nest! More twist and turns still yet to come! The roller-coaster is no way near finished yet! ~mpkio2~

Went for a walk when heavy sleet turned to Heavy Snow in Central London between 12 - 1! Literally stood in it, with big and small flakes blowing into my face with a negative windchill! But, due to the rain before, nothing settled. Damn you rain!!!! Tonight looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far for many with widespread ice for our region. -4 in Central London which is actually really impressive! Keep safe, everyone!

After a few hours or rain/sleet, snow has started to fall in Central London.

OK, this is just getting ridiculous now BBC! The forecast for my area has now changed to this.... Snow for most of the day? I'm telling you, not even the BBC know what tomorrow will bring! All to play for I say!

BBC has my area down for this tomorrow... I don't have much faith in it though; I should be having "Heavy Snow" right now, yet nothing is falling from the sky! I say to expect the unexpected tomorrow for our region. More surprises might be in store...

I said this yesterday evening and it looks like it was the right call! Many posters woke up to a surprise snowfall in places across our region and we've had over 20+ pages of posts in just one day! I think theres a chance that more snow will fall tomorrow for our region. Yesterday people were worrying about DP's being too high....and the majority of our region still got snow even with these 850temps.... As long our has its own cold pool and DP's are -0, then wintry PPN will fall.

Went out for 4 hours and enjoyed the Winter Wonderland at my doorstep. Snow has fallen, from light to heavy with 20p snowflakes here in Central London! Took many photos. Here are a few of my favs.....

Currently in Regents Park. its like a Winter Wonderland! Easily got 2-3 inches of snow in Central London!

Had my alarm set for9.00am (BBC weather app said"Heavy Snow" would fall in my area at this time)... Woke up at about 7....heavy rain outside.... Wakes up at 9.....Winter Wonderland outside with heavy, big snowflakes!!!! Best snowfall Central London has had since January 2013!

True that! I had a feeling those temps were too high. Thank god for the last second upgrades, eh?

BBC just updated with "Heavy Snow" at 10 tomorrow morning for my area. That correlates to what the HIRLAM is showing! Hey! I can dream!

Good evening all, fellow southerners! Are snow chances have upgraded a bit over the past few hours, huh? This is what BBC are forecasting for my area in Central.North West London..... A mixture of sleet/rain and to top it off, some heavy snow? Surely not! Tomorrows gonna be a LONG day and I gotta feeling a few surprises may crop up for our region. Heres to hoping....

Lucky so-and-so Enjoy any wintry weather you get up there!

I feel your pains mate. Maybe we'll get some sleet if we're lucky. Who knows though? We might get a few surprises over the coming days....

With regards to 12z UKMO, I do wonder if people realize that both the 0z and 12z are 12 hours apart from each other and show a perfect evolution especially if you put them together... For example...... 0z 05/11 UKMO t24: 12z 05/11 UKMO t24: 0z 05/11 UKMO t48: 12z 05/11 UKMO t48: 0z 05/11 UKMO t72: 12z 05/11 UKMO t72: 0z 05/11 UKMO t96: 12z 05/11 UKMO t96: 0z 05/11 UKMO t120: 12z 05/11 UKMO t120: 0z 05/11 UKMO t144: 12z 05/11 UKMO t144: The evolution looks a lot better when you put both runs together because each run takes place at a different time of the day on the charts (1:00am for 0z and 13:00 for 12z), so when you piece it all together, it makes much more sense and looks a heck lot better! The cold (and snow) are very much, still, GAME ON!! According to what the UKMO says! Could still change though! ~mpkio2~

ANOTHER EPIC POST INCOMING!!! Hello all once more! I've been monitorIing and lurking in the background, taking in what has been said on our current winter prospects. Much has been a-going on, huh? Anyway, as can been seen from my post above from last week, I mentioned that the THEME going forward was looking good with "heights in the Atlantic to further ridge up to Greenland (Look at that WAA!!! ), Trough over Scandy, Arctic High STILL in place, trough over NE America, Low off Newfoundland (Helping with WAA to build GH! - Hopefully! ), high building NW of America (Alaskan High?) and high over Russia slowly building too! " And where do we currently sit? 0z GFS 05/12 t12: Hmm, not bad predictions from all models on the GENERAL pattern! Arctic High, heights in Atlantic, Trough over Scandy and NE America, Alaskan ridge and slowly building Russian High is all that is currently occurring, as the models predicted! What they didn't get right is the amount of low pressure in the Atlantic the currently is which, ultimately, stops a stronger Greenland High from establishing due to low WAA. I advised not to take any model seriously after t144 (At the time!) all too seriously as the models didn't have the pattern nailed (Most were showing strong Greenland Highs! but some wern't) and, as can be seen where we currently are heading, it was right to do so! Upcoming Cold Spell! Cold incoming on Thurs into weekend looks nailed by all modles! 0z GFS 05/12 t72: 0z GEM 05/12 t72: 0z ECM 05/12 t72: 0z UKMO 05/12 t72: Looks like a classic cold, artic blast to me!!! Very good cross model agreement (Is what we want - if cold is your thing! ) Model Violity - What Will Happen After The Northerly? The real problem is what happens after the intial northerly and wheether a preferbale "slider" sceanario will occur for the UK, as ala the GFS has been hinting in some of its previous runs over the past few days. Heres what all models are showing for t120 (Sunday 10th December).... 0z GFS 05/12 t120: 0z GEM 05/12 t120: 0z ECM 05/12 t120: 0z UKMO 05/12 t120: GFS/GEM both appear to have the "slider" low coming off the Atlantic further south (Back edge snow showers on the North of the low!) than the ECM does. UKMO appears to ba a midel solution. Like many, I thought ECM looked horrible, but the more I studied it, the better it looked, especially if you understand the evolution. From t120 to t144 the low south of Greenland falls down on NW - SE axis and joins the trough over Scandy resulting in a strong NW'ly flow.... 0z ECM 05/12 t144: Which then allows for an Atlantic ridge to build behind it... 0z ECM 05/12 t168: Which ultimately leads onto this.... 0z ECM 05/12 t240: Which, actually, the 0z GFS t240 looks awfully similar to.... 0z GFS 05/12 t240: In fact both the GFS and ECM look rather similar, if you ask me, esepcially if you compare them side to side! Both contain an Atlantic ridge, Scandy Trough, NE America Trough (-PNA signature!!!), Alaskan High, PV Troughing out to the East of Russia, Russia high, Artic high STILL in place! Obviously both look different, but both have same TREND/THEME!!!!! And as I've noted over a month now, Trends and Themes are out freind this season! Especially the whole "slider" discussion between GFS and ECM!! ECM appears to look badly in comparison to the GFS because with GFS you can see its evolution of the low coming off the Atlantic from t144 to t168 where it slides under and phases with the trough over Sceuro - (It lowers the heights in Europe!). But with ECM, you can't see the evolution of where the low goes and whether it "slides" or not. Because you only have t144 to t168 to work with to see. 0z ECM 05/12 t144: 0z ECM 05/12 t168: Lowers heights over Europe,meaning either the low went south of us, or phased with the intial trough sitting over Scandy. Becasue how do you know that the low didn't go south between t144 to t168?? Next few runs might show this better!! Either way, there are some good TRENDS going on in the models, hinting at a "waxing and wanning" of a Atlantic ridge, Scandy trough, NE America trough, Alaskan High combo still to play for upto mid-Decemeber - its a TREND they are showing and nothing more! To be honest, anything and everything couldpossibly be happen after the inital Northerly, but a colder pattern looks likely as being sustained (For now anyway! ) Also, I wouldn't get too caried away with uppers and moaning of where it willsnow and will it snow and all that really. As many on here as alredy noted, these finer details are likely to change constantly through intra-runs. Also, its possible to get snow showers even with -3 850hpa temps, as long as dew points and cold underneath too - it happened for London in Dec 2010 in one instant and, as many a few knowledgeable posters will tell you through expereinced, has occured in previous "Battleground UK" sceanarios in the past. The battle continues and the roller-caoster doesn't llok like its gonna stop any time soon! Exspect a few surprises in the coming days and the mdoels to chop and change regualyl! Eyes down for the 12zs!! ~mpkio2~

Snow flurry falling in Central London. Nice way to start winter officially! Will probably be the only snow we get this Winter!!

CONTINUING ON FROM LAST PAST............ A weak La Nina equates to a Front Loaded Winter too.1962, 1963, 1967, 1968, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2009 and 2012 were all weak La Nina winters. Sorry for going on a tangent there! Anyway, here latest ECM for t144.... 12z ECM 29/11 t144: It has the same THEME as the others, but with a very different look to it, especially how it blows up that Low off Newfoundland. Agaian, same theme, and anything after is pure FL!!! Speaking of FL.... mpkio2 said: "Overall, another great day, with the signal for a cold snap/spell to affect the UK increasing. But caution, as always, as developments in the short-term can hinder us too and wipe everything away - which has happened many a time for us cold/snow starved coldies!" Looks as though my caution wasn't left on death ears, as many of my you (My fellow posters) also noted of where FL was, and people not really putting faith in what the models were showing after a certain timeframe. Which I think is a good way to look at things, seeing, if we didn't, all our nerves will be shredded, constantly on edge of what the next run would show, blades and prozac on standby! My advice; take it easy and enjoy (If possible!) of whatever we can get. Here we all our, glues eyes to our computer screens of the next cold spell when in reality we are currently IN A COLD SPELL!! All this is within t48, and not all the way at +t200!!! So I'm gonna be up early tomorrow morning, walk around and enjoy the cold, crisp Arctic air while I can. Because no-one really knows how cold it will be this winter and whether it will return (100% I mean!). I think we should enjoy whatever we get (Whatever we like!), whenever we get it and while we can before it vanishes. I'm all for looking ahead and seeing what we might expect re COLD weather. But I think we should also spend time in the Here and Now when we can, and of course, look forward to the Then and Later after. While it's here, enjoy the weather, guys! ~mpkio2~

WARNING: EPIC POST INCOMING!!!!! Quoted from last MOD thread: "Model Output Discussion 01/09/17" Link to comment: (Within this post I will make quotes from my last post from the last MOD thread. Link is above!) ---- Hello all once again! So around this time last week, I made a post regarding UK COLD weather potential, with some ramping and some strong caution going forward. Most models were showing a cold pattern emerging..... This is what ECM/GFS/GEM was showing on the 21st November for today... 12z ECM 21/11 t192: 12z GFS 21/11 t192: 12z GEM 21/11 t192: And.... 12z UKMO 23/11 t144: And this is where we are currently..... 12z GFS 29/11 t06: So.....as can be seen, not one model got the current pattern correct. This, as I mentioned last week, was down to the shenanigans going on the atmosphere affecting the models, causing model vioity, swings in output. Although, I think ECM/UKMO was pretty close, especially if you blended their output into one (Though the troughing to the NE is completely wrong!). The best thing to do in these situations is to find a trend/theme that keeps cropping up. And, what all runs had in common on that day was a Northlyflow for the UK with a trough to out NE and ridge to our west - that was the trend. Thus, I commented..... mpkio2 said: "FL for me anyway, is anything after, seeing how all models develop on to something different in look and what the UK "might" receive, but the theme and trend for a "COLD" snap/spelli very strong within them, as well! 9Look above at my faves of the day! ). All models see the Main lobe of the PV taking a holiday towards East Russia, Centered Arctic high with Atlantic heights ridging up, a trough over Scandi digging down cold N/NW winds with a mixture of Snow/sleet/rain affecting the country. Very, very good! " And that's exactly what happened and where we currently find ourselves in - lobe of PV went to East Russia, Atlantic ridging up to pole connect with Arctic High in place, trough over Scandy and Northly wind bringing down COLD air with a mixture of Snow/Sleet/Rain affecting the country!!! Ahem....*cough* *cough* Snow showers for Eastern coasts tomorrow! And so, what do they models see now? What's been the trend/theme over that past few days? 12z GFS 29/11 t144: 12z UKMO 29/11 t144: 12z GEM 29/11 t144: 0z ECM 29/11 t144: Very good agreement between the models! (Especially the GFS/UKMO!) The THEME is for heights in the Atlantic to further ridge up to Greenland (Look at that WAA!!! ), Trough over Scandy, Arctic High STILL in place, trough over NE America, Low off Newfoundland (Helping with WAA to build GH! - Hopefully! ), high building NW of America (Alaskan High?) and high over Russia slowly building too! @chionomaniac Is that a 3-Wave Tropospheric pattern emerging? ) Of course, the models don't have the details down yet of what will happen after, seeing how previous runs have built a GH successfully and some haven't, with inter-runs showing different outcomes after the t144 period (Which is around the timeframe (6th - 12 Dec) of @Steve Murr 's potential for Blocking to form around Greenland! ). Asd many have already said, it's knife-edge stuff for the UK (When isn't it, though, really? ) and a case of "Wait and see". Adding on, however to @Tamara brilliant and fully detailed post early today, there is still some optimism to have for some cold weather to come our way... Tamara said: If La Nina consolidates to any greater extent then attempted rises in atmospheric angular momentum tendency are logically supressed. As a consequence, this implies a dearth of +ve torque forcing c/o poleward rossby wave development from tropics to extra tropics and then to polar stratosphere via +MT to develop the Eurasian cold equation as a means of cold air advection from the NE. In such circumstances, with the vortex more organised this side of the pole, the outcome would favour the Pacific/Atlantic ridge combination and too much overriding polar jet energy to enable sufficient trough disruption of lows heading downstream and in turn allowing height rises from the NE to ride over and cut off low heights to the south. If La Nina forcing is too strong then this favours increased strength to the sub tropical Azores ridge which would override too weak any -AO signal. Basically, whats she saying is that a "cause and effect" needs to occur for ample opportunities ala cold weather prospects for the UK. If La Nina gets stronger then atmospheric working can't take place (angular momentum, +ve torque forcing ,rossby wave development, etc), which we need to allow for a cold pattern to become established. TO BE CONTINUED.......

Hello all one again!!! You know its been a good day of model watching when you go away and return to see four new pages of posts! With over 100 members on here tonight, the place is absolutely buzzing! And for good reason, especially when the models are showing encouraging signals for cold.... 12z GFS 21/11 t90: 12z ECM 21/11 t192: 12z UKMO 21/11 t96: 12z GEM 21/11 t192: 12z JMA 21/11 t100: (Just some of my favorites from the pack! ) You know somethings up, especially when all models are showing an overall agreed theme of cold weather for the UK! But the real question (And this is important for a cold evolution pattern to take hold further on!), do we have any kind of "Cross-model-agreement"? (Even in the short-term? ) Well.... 12z GFS 21/11 t96: 12z ECM 21/11 t96: 12z UKMO 21/11 t96: 12z GEM 21/11 t96: 12z JMA 21/11 t96: Err...woah.... So....when was the last time all the models looked so....similar...? All joking aside, cross-model-agreement is a GO until t96, with even the less GEM/JMA in agreement with the Big Three!!! FL for me anyway, is anything after, seeing how all models develop on to something different in look and what the UK "might" receive, but the theme and trend for a "COLD" snap/spelli very strong within them, as well! 9Look above at my faves of the day! ). All models see the Main lobe of the PV taking a holiday towards East Russia, Centered Arctic high with Atlantic heights ridging up, a trough over Scandi digging down cold N/NW winds with a mixture of Snow/sleet/rain affecting the country. Very, very good! The models also agree on the secondary low that crosses the Atlantic at a NW/SE axis and joins the first trough around the t96-t144, but all not agreed on how fast the low will speed across the Atlantic or how shallow or "bulb" like it is, thus the different outcomes that develop after (As @nick sussex and @Steve Murr have alluded to.) Overall, another great day, with the signal for a cold snap/spell to affect the UK increasing. But caution, as always, as developments in the short-term can hinder us too and wipe everything away - which has happened many a time for us cold/snow starved coldies! Please...don't be taking us down the Graden Path models..... Hopefully, the Siberian Express gains speed. Fingers crossed. ~mpkio2~

I can't edit my post for some reason, but I posted the wrong image for the 12z 10/11 ECM run. This is what it was predicting on that day: 12z ECM 10/11 t216:

Hello all once again!!! Well, it sure has been a roller-coaster of an experience looking at the model's struggle with the upcoming blocking in the Arctic, eh? Talk about causing some drama!!!! I haven't been really active on here because, as I stated above in my earlier posts from a week ago, I expected the models to "flip-flop" around with the upcoming pattern and descending AO - it happens every time when a pattern like this wants to set up, with inter-runs saying "mild" one run and "cold" the next...or even, as we#ve seen over the past few days, the models lock onto a pattern, only to latch on to a new one a few runs later! As I said above, I was cautious about the "amplified" colder runs, because of how the models struggle with these set-ups. And sure enough, the models were off from what they were predicting (Post Day 5 period onwards)(Though correct with blocking in Arctic around Greenland!): 12z GFS 10/11 T216: 12z ECM 10/11 T216: And what actually transpired.... 12z ECM 19/11 T0: The models couldn't predict the west -NAO setting up instead the EAST -NAO that all of us coldies want, and thus, a new pattern has occurred to take place. It's these kinds of details and teleconnection and atmospheric changes that are currently taking place causing the models to struggle, with wild model violaty output all over the shot. I'm encouraged by the recent 12z ECM and its evolution to a colder outlook for the UK... 12z ECM 19/11 T120: Very nice!!! But how much faith can we put into one run? A new trend has to follow before I can believe anything that's going to show up in the coming days' runs. So, I'm not believing anything post t96, because pattern change can easily take place during these unpredictable and unstable model times! Always optimistic, but cautious too.... ~mpkio2~