BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Posts posted by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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"I'm going to go all in or bust on this one.
15.2.C and 48mm.
Absolutely no hint of this warmth from an average even cool first third but then a historic anticyclonic heatwave will see a run of 30.C or higher days and balmy nights under a strong Sun to squeak into the record books"
Looks like you may end up closest here Shillitocettwo. We don't even need any balmy 30C days to be running less than 1C off your prediction. Yes Damian, I agree. It's the cloudy nights that are making the difference. I just can't see a cool off. For me it's a high 14s finish.
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And in answer to my own question earlier about early CET sites, I just asked ChatGPT4o and it summarised as follows:
Key sites contributing to the CET data included:
Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford: Data from this site has been used since 1815. It provided a long series of monthly means which were essential in creating a representative record for central England.
Lancashire Plain series: This series, starting in 1753, was used alongside the Oxford data to cover the West Midlands counties.
Lyndon, Rutland: Thomas Barker's records from 1736 to 1798 were valuable for the Midlands region.
Near Oundle: George Lynn’s records from 1726 to the early 1740s contributed to the data set.
Stroud: Dr. Thomas Hughes' observations from 1771 to 1813 were included.
Sheffield: Dr. Thomas Short's records from 1734 to 1756 also fed into the historical data pool.
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We all study weather trends in detail on here.
Ask yourself this question (and I am not advocating gambling here), if someone offered you a free evens bet of £100 that 40C was going to reached in UK again by Sept 30 2027, or the same £100 bet at the same odds that it won't be, which bet would you take?
I would bet on the former.
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I was reading Gordon Manley's Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973.
https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/papers/qj74manley.pdf
You can see the 1833 figure (15.1) on page 8/16 of the above PDF.
Also February 1779's record 7.9 on page 7.
I agree, it does appear a genuine figure. It's exceptional and has stood the test of time. -
Don 40.3C might last about 2-4 years too. Definitely not 16.
It's not easy to achieve 40C in this country, even with the climate cards stacked/ dice loaded (pick your metaphor). I think 2022 was extreme. I would expect something more like we got in 2019/2021 maybe? -
Pulpstar 2003 was incredible.
Europe experienced a heatwave similar to what they have been experiencing in recent years.
(only 2006/2018/2022 can compare to 2003 since then)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heatwaveThe 38.5C we experienced on Aug 10th in Faversham in Kent held the record for 16 years, until it was surpassed in 2019.
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What are the chances of June coming in cooler than May, has this ever happened before?
That would depend on the finishing figure for May.
If May finished 14C or higher, the last sub 14C June CET was 2015 (13.9)
I would put the odds at about 15% of that happening.
If May finished cooler on say 13.8C, that reduces the odds.
Here are a few sub 13.8C June CETS in recent years:
2011 (13.7), 2013 (13.6), 2012 (13.5).
I would put the odds at about 10% of that happening.-
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Did I read in here the 1833 figure was London only? If so does anyone know the site they measured from?
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Scorcher Focusing on heart of the summer month, 4 out of the last 6 Julys have produced a CET above 17.5C:
2018,2019, 2021,2022.
So I would say we are odds on having another.
I'm also increasingly confident we will record the highest ever Annual CET. Why so confident? Apart from the El Nino year we are in, the ocean temperatures are so warm, any air coming our way is influenced by this increasingly warm water that surround our island, so it's no surprise we are experiencing so many mild nights. Given that CET figures are the average of the 9am and 9pm temperatures, we are going to keep coming close to or surpassing these old records, without the need for the perfect synoptics that were required to achieve these records in the past.
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Thanks both. Looking at the outlook, a formality then ..
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Could someone remind me what we need for May CET to finish warmest CET spring and warmest opening 5 months of the year?
It's the story of the year so far, the mildness of the nights.
Only 8 people guessed 8.0C or over in the competition and only 1 over 8.4C. (I went with 8.0C and I wouldn't be surprised to be 0.5C out)
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Roger J Smith Let's hope for a continuation on recent trends then.
To put it another way, 2 of the last 6 summers have managed to have a warm May and a warm summer.June 2018 was a super month, with a CET of 16.1C. I'd happily take a repeat of that!
June 2022 came in on the average for 2001-2022 14.9C
July 2018 came in 3rd warmest in the series at 19.2C.
July 2022, despite the record heat, came in a degree less at 18.2C
Aug 2018 gave us a slightly above avg, 16.8C
Aug 2022's 18.7C produced some glorious weather.
Aug 2022 is one of my favourite months in my lifetime. The heatwave that month happened during my seaside holiday in Cornwall. Felt more like Spain!
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So we have hit a running average of 14.0C again (after 1st of the month)
We often seem to chasing centuries old records these days, don't we? (Feb 1779 was missed by 0.1C)
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I'm surprised by those latest projected values from Derecho. A late May plume would be pushing us into high 14s range, though to challenge 1833 would require a prolonged plume like we experienced in early Sept 2023.
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Closing date end of May 11
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What would the July CET look like if we had a continuation of Spring 2024-like pattern of humid, cloudy mild nights with minimums consistently in the mid to high teens, with above average precipitation limiting the highs to temps in the mid 20s C at best? Could we get a record CET of 19.9C without hitting 30C the whole month?
This is not the weather I am looking for, just a theoretical question. What was the closest CET July month to this?
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14.0C please. A CET temperature for May never recorded before.
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So if Derecho's projected CET values come to fruition, the 2nd half of April (7.7C) will come in below the April 1961-90 average (7.9C).
It feels more like February just gone than April and we are heading into the final month of spring next week..
I'm starting to think I overcooked my estimate of 9.6C. 10 days ago I thought the opposite. What a contrast!
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It comes down to sunshine (higher the better), wind speed (<10 mph preferably) and rainfall (lower the better), rather than high temperatures.
So whichever year had more sunshine and less rainfall gets my vote.
By the sound of things 2020, but 2018 was my favourite May-July of all time.
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snowray it's hard to believe, until you read about it.
The Great Snowfall – 25 April 1908 – Historic Southampton
HISTORICSOUTHAMPTON.CO.UK-
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To fall from 11.39C on the 14th to 9.7C at month's end would require a cool down of 1.7C, a feat only achieved twice in 1778 and 1815.
Interesting times! Thanks for those stats Roger.
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Derecho it wouldn't take a huge twist to drop into the high 9s C then if we picked up an easterly towards the end of the month perhaps?
Glad I stuck with 9.6C. It may not be too far out
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Thanks for posting this. Quite frankly I am surprised.. 2021 was incredible! I remember 2020 clearly but not 2021. But it surpassed it somehow.
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I remember April 2011 well, as I had just become a father for the first time a couple of weeks earlier. It was indeed a warm, sunny and pleasant month. The cloth nappies dried well on the line!
It must have finished very strongly judging by Roger's running CET chart above showing 11.08 avg for the first 13 days and finish of 11.9C.
Which was sunniest April on record?
I'm thinking 2007/2011/2015/2020 would feature high up in the charts..
May 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
Yes, I think so too. Still 2 weeks left of May. Could finish anywhere between about 13.7 and 14.7C at this stage. I can see June just carrying on being warm. Will continue to make my predictions well above average (min 2C above the 61-91 avg) for the rest of the year's competition.