BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Posts posted by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Summer8906 If we kept the same pattern of low pressure system after low pressure system, with limited sunshine in the day and mild cloudy nights, I still think we are looking at a slightly above average CET April. I am not sure it's possible to get a below-average CET month now given how warm the waters are around the UK. Every time we hear of a SSW event, I think, yes, but if the source of the easterly is Eastern Europe, they themselves are experiencing above average temperatures. To get cold weather now, you'd have to have regularly northerly and north easterly incursions. Yes, for a week maybe, but not the whole month. The cold start always creeps upward.
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Summer8906 It's looking like a rainy April (first half). If this pattern continues into the 2nd half too, the record will be smashed.
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I'm going with 9.6C.
That would mean Jan -Apr 2024 would become the second warmest opening 4 months to a year, behind only 2007.
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Fen Wolf i completely hear you. The UK during a good May and June is probably my favourite place on Earth. It's just waiting for it to arrive that's the frustrating part!
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Fen Wolf I unfortunately cannot escape as I am caring for multiple people. Even if I could, I would time my escape to Spain until after Easter, judging by the forecast. Looking fine in the south of Spain from Tues 2nd. Which area do you consider to be the best in southern Europe?
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*Stormforce~beka* Maybe I'll just go live with the monkeys in Gibraltar when the visa expires
They can't kick us out of there.
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*Stormforce~beka* the whole EU area. Max 90 days for every 180 day period .
Schengen 90/180 Rule - How Long Can I Stay in Europe?
VISAGUIDE.WORLD
Holders of Schengen visas are entitled to visit their primary destination and other countries in the Schengen Area without the need for individual visas... -
SummerShower if every year started off like this one has, I would have to consider spending a few months during winter living out of a campervan somewhere warmer and drier (Spain and Portugal). You can only stay for 90 days now, post Brexit.
I've had a bad cough for the last 2 months, as have the rest of my family. The damp weather has made it harder to get over it.
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For historical years that I can't remember, 1947 and 1955 look good.
Yes I would agree about 1947. Obviously few, if any of us on here remember 1947, but I was able to chat to my father-in-law about it some years ago, and also a local lady who remembered it. Both said the same thing - incredible snowfall all the way to mid March.
Quite simply it would come out top on this page if we were posing the same question in the 1950s.
Not only was 1947 the snowiest winter on record, (more snow than 1963, but not as cold)
(Read about it here:
Famous British Winters - 1947 and 1963 - Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TVit also had a 17C summer including arguably the best August of the 20th Century behind 1995. (Fifth warmest CET August)
As a person who likes snowy winters and warm summers, those two things alone puts it number one of all time, as far as I am concerned.
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WYorksWeather you will be within a couple of tenths for sure.
I didn't enter this competition from the beginning, but a guess around 2C each month above the 61-90 average each month would probably place you high up the table. To increase your odds, you will have to bet late and be able to accurately predict the projected first quarter CET value and creep it higher or lower than the 2C accordingly.
Unfortunately, I think any months below 61-90 are about 1 in 20 likely to happen now.
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I agree, it is unlikely 2007 will be topped, but an April CET of 9.5C would leave 2024 in second place. (7.55C).
We have already seen 9.5C topped 7 times this century. That is most likely going to be my prediction for next month's comp.
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I was lucky enough to have booked a holiday 4-12 Aug 2022, including 4 nights at Treyarnon Bay YHA in Cornwall. (The best beach YHA in the UK imo). Normally you would expect a temperature of around 19-20C on the coast. We got three days of about 24C, 27C and 27C.
Probably the best beach days I've had since swimming with a turtle in Western Australia and body surfing in Coogee Beach, Sydney. back in 2001.
Can't wait to experience another August like it, and I am confident we will get many in the future.
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August 1997 was the second warmest August on record with a CET of 19.0C and one of the warmest months on record.
https://community.netweather.tv/topic/74839-hot-and-august-of-1997/?do=findComment&comment=2392896 -
damianslaw For 2024 to recover from this to claim top spot we would need April 2011, May 2018, June 1976, July 1976, Aug 1995, etc finishing off with Nov and Dec 2010.
I'd settle for another Aug 1995. That's not been repeated since. It had a CET of 19.1C (warmest in the series)
A couple of years later we almost matched it with 19.0C in August 1997. Does anyone remember that summer month?
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If you had to live the exact same year's weather again (Groundhog day style) which year from the past would you choose and why?
This is a whole year's weather (UK) from your lifetime you would happily repeat again and again for 3 years straight.
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Where do we find Monthly sunshine stats? This March must be now in contention of being in the unwanted list of least sunny Marches on record?
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Greyhound81
The average hottest day Pre 1990 (1875-1989) was 31.9C.
The average hottest day Post 1990 (1990-2023) has been 33.7C.
This is a difference of 1.78C.
The last summer to not reach 30C was 1993. (29.7C)
For me going forward, we will see only 1 in 10 summers not reaching 32C.
Will we ever see a summer not reach 30C again? I wouldn't bet on it for sure in my lifetime, but as CryoraptorA303 just said, it would have to a volcanic eruption, or a freak year (maybe 1 in 50?) -
I can't remember much of 2007 but in 2012 I remember saying to my wife let's book and go when there is a sunny week during August or Sept. August was rubbish and there was only one avg to good week 1-8 Sept 2012. Then it went into Autumn!
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It was an incredibly difficult period for everyone. I remember we were at one point allowed out (like our pet dogs are) for one hour of exercise a day.
I had young children at the time. I live near a busy residential through road. It was almost empty of traffic.. so empty that we all felt safe to let the kids cycle along the road behind us (one on a bike trailer). At one point there were more bikes than cars. I had to take these small "wins" as a way to get through this time. My mental health would have been many times worse if I had not been able to enjoy my cycling during this period, due to inclement weather.
I had to remind myself that when the world seemed to be falling apart, some things remained grounded , the sun in the sky, the buds on the trees, bird song in the woods, within cycling distance of our home. That's how I got through it. As someone else has said, I thank those weather gods for allowing this.
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WYorksWeather, Your 8.4C prediction is going to be close imo. I went for 9.3C which is obviously still going to be well above the finishing figure, but not as much as I thought a week ago.
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So looking at Derecho's latest projections above, Feb and Mar 2024 could be taking first place in Roger's Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record chart in a couple of weeks. Depressing, considering the cloud cover, but perhaps in large part, because of it.
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Sun Chaser I would take not seeing a glimpse of the sun again for the rest of March to get April 2020 again. That was a lovely month of sunshine. Thank god it was good, as we had just entered the first lockdown and I felt like a caged rodent stuck within the confines of my home and back yard.
But it was also pretty decent at the end of March 2020 too, I seem to remember.
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I might have to change my name to don't_I_see if this dullness carries on!
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April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
I just remembered Roger's request to not start conversations at the beginning of a CET competition, so apologies for my initial post. I won't add to the debate. I really hope for any kind of settled weather before the end of the month. Happy to be well out with my 9.6C prediction in return.