BlueSkies_do_I_see

February 27

Derecho Given the final two days of the month for Stoneyhurst and Pershore are forecasting 11C/9C on 28th and 10C/4C, it would a miracle if it dropped below 7.9C.

My money is on an 8.0C finish.

February 26

Weather-history I do remember that yes. Loved Philip Eden

You might enjoy this from 2008 from this very forum:

February 26

Scorcher it is based 9am to 9am as I have read that a lot in the past on here. Does that change things much?

It could drop 7.9 to the 26th, 7.7 to the 27th then rise 7.8 to the 28th, and then all be hinging on the 29th..

February 26

Dropped to 8.1 today. Starting to think 1779 is indeed safe at the top.

February 24

9.3C for me. I'm going to go large or go home.

February 24

I personally think 1779's crown is teetering. It's going to be beaten (just). Reason being the models seem to not have a full grasp on this new climate era we are in. Feb was forecast to be cold and it's been quite the opposite.

If I had to place a bet on either 7.8C or 8.0C, I would put my chips right now on 8.0C. Weds 28th looks like it's going to pitch the CET up and not down and the 29th could have a double figure high temp too.

February 23

I'd happily take another 2018. I spent most of that summer under canvas (60 nights). It's the perfect summer climate for me, hot for weeks on end and with low humidity. It's the summer I will be chasing in my retirement (Algarve possibly).

Both May bank holidays hit 26C + in my locality, and the heat just continued into June

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2018-05-07/may-day-bank-holiday-confirmed-as-hottest-on-record

2018 British Isles heatwave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Will we get another hot summer. I'd put money on it! There will be some unsettled spells but I can see 33C being hit in both July and August widely across the British Isles (pushing 38C in the South East)

February 22

Roger J Smith the couch has outlived the house Roger!

It demonstrates why that record has stood the test of time. Even this super charged month is going to struggle to shift it.

How close are we now to the Feb EWP record?

February 21

It could end up neither falling short or surpassing 1779 , but matching the 7.9C. Either way, I agree the 28th and 29th will be key. The minimums on those days start to rise.

February 18

Catbrainz I was in North Devon last week and I saw a young couple strip down to swim shorts and bikini and run into the sea. It has to be a hot day in August for me to do that! I guess some people feel the cold more than others

February 17

Don I wouldn't have believed it was possible only a short time ago. But some things have altered my perception. 2022 40.3C. June and Sept 2023 both setting temperature records and now this February.

I'm also looking at the world temperature records being broken on a continual basis.

I believe the ocean temperatures are increasing so rapidly that the long range forecasts cannot keep pace with accurately predicting the full extent of the heat we are experiencing.

I don't have the technical knowledge of many on here so I can only go on observations.

For me it's an odds on chance.

February 16

SqueakheartLW thanks. I would agree with your points. I hope the warmest year doesn't happen. This Feb is going to be a close thing. It does still look like the end of the month will drag it down below 7.9C, but I will be very surprised if it goes below 7C

February 16

I think we have reached the tipping point now to be honest. All records are under threat. Warmest winter, warmest Feb, warmest year. If a bookie offered me evens odds on any of those three occurring, I would lay a £100 wager. I'd happily take their money.

So I can see this new record in context, does anyone have access to the top 10 mildest daily mean Feb days on record?

February 14

I've now conditioned myself to be less surprised by these high temperature results being ahead of those forecast.

I am guessing the verification stats show the actual temperature values are more often higher than the models are forecasting rather than lower?

February 14

Summer8906 prior to 2015, the record CET for both December and February was 0.1C either side of 8C. (December 1934 8.1C and Feb 1779 7.9C)

Then December 2015 came along and blows the record sky high with 9.6C.

Given what we are witnessing with these pulses of incredibly mild air, I think the 7.9C record is under serious threat in the near future.

The end of this month is looking cooler, so it may be safe this year, but can anyone provide one of those running GFS estimates?

February 7

The weather outlook is looking cool, but not excessively cold. I guess it's a slow drift down from here, rather than a steep drop. The question is how much will in dip?

I actually don't want these warmest month on record to keep being set, as it is obviously not a good sign. On the flip side, I'm in here with you guys, as we all share the passion about analysing and measuring what we are experiencing today against the records set in the past.

February 6

When I see these 850hPa anomalies being forecast from 192 hours, I can only see an above average month, a 7.0C + finish.

I wish we did more snow and hoar frosts. I miss it. But it is what it is.

February 6

I would say anyone who called something circa 7C is sitting pretty right now.

February 6

WYorksWeather It's hard seeing where the next below average CET month is coming from. We have only had one Mean CET month below average since June 2021 (Dec 2022 CET 3.4). That's 31 of the last 32 months above average.

January 28

I'm looking for settled, sunny weather all the year round. Happy enough with cold winter days with plenty of sunshine. For me the switch to warm weather hunting starts during mid March to early April. That's the time you can be realistically be chasing the magic temperature of 18C when you can throw open your patio doors and the temperature inside and out is the same.

January 28

Expect to see records tumble this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see another warmest month on record broken, if not more than one.

Ask yourself this. If someone told you that 40C would be breached again this summer, would you be that surprised?

I would put the odds at 1/3.

January 27

@cheeky_monkey yes I would love to visit somewhere for a snowier winter. Ita one of the downsides to living in lower areas of England. Virtually no snow now. This latter half of Jan is super mild. If it can't be below zero and snow, be dry warm and calm winds for me.

January 25

Thanks for the tip. One day I will be taking a campervan all the way down that coast when I retire.

It's pricey i'm but tempted to shell out the ferry to Bilbao or Santander sometime. Is there a beach around there that you rate?

January 25

@In Absence of True Seasons Thanks for the detailed reply. It is much appreciated. I prefer not to fly when I can help it, and love to take a load of beach stuff in the boot anyway.

My personal thinking is that most Augusts (barring the odd one such as 2023) are going to be pretty warm from now on. I guess it comes down to preference. I lucked out in Aug 2022 and sat on the beach with 3 successive days of 27C. That's more typical of somewhere like Île de Ré.

I'd be happy with 20-21C, as with those temperatures you can still do the sight seeing and coastal path walking. The best bet for that is the UK. If you want 2 weeks by the beach / pool and then eat out in the evening, further south in Europe is a better bet.

January 24

About to book my summer holidays What do you think the odds are of us having a head wave again in July and August this summer like we did 2022?

My favourite place is Western France because I like the warmth, but if it's going to be another scorchio British summer, I might as well save the £800 on the Brittany ferry and head to Devon or Cornwall again.

Yes, I know I can get cheaper shorter crossing to places like Dieppe and Calais, but that leaves a longer drive for me.

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