BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Posts posted by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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14.0C please. A CET temperature for May never recorded before.
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So if Derecho's projected CET values come to fruition, the 2nd half of April (7.7C) will come in below the April 1961-90 average (7.9C).
It feels more like February just gone than April and we are heading into the final month of spring next week..
I'm starting to think I overcooked my estimate of 9.6C. 10 days ago I thought the opposite. What a contrast!
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It comes down to sunshine (higher the better), wind speed (<10 mph preferably) and rainfall (lower the better), rather than high temperatures.
So whichever year had more sunshine and less rainfall gets my vote.
By the sound of things 2020, but 2018 was my favourite May-July of all time.
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snowray it's hard to believe, until you read about it.
The Great Snowfall – 25 April 1908 – Historic Southampton
HISTORICSOUTHAMPTON.CO.UK-
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To fall from 11.39C on the 14th to 9.7C at month's end would require a cool down of 1.7C, a feat only achieved twice in 1778 and 1815.
Interesting times! Thanks for those stats Roger.
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Derecho it wouldn't take a huge twist to drop into the high 9s C then if we picked up an easterly towards the end of the month perhaps?
Glad I stuck with 9.6C. It may not be too far out
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Thanks for posting this. Quite frankly I am surprised.. 2021 was incredible! I remember 2020 clearly but not 2021. But it surpassed it somehow.
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I remember April 2011 well, as I had just become a father for the first time a couple of weeks earlier. It was indeed a warm, sunny and pleasant month. The cloth nappies dried well on the line!
It must have finished very strongly judging by Roger's running CET chart above showing 11.08 avg for the first 13 days and finish of 11.9C.
Which was sunniest April on record?
I'm thinking 2007/2011/2015/2020 would feature high up in the charts..
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Don 11.9C is safe. I would bet my mortgage on it. The bigger question is if we are going to finish with 11.1C?
That is the temperature that would beat 2007 to make 2024 the warmest Jan-Apr on record.
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I'll take a 10.5C CET finish, if it means drier..
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I agree with the comments about settled snow on the south of the country. It's going to take perfect synoptics now to deliver. Anything else will be falling snow or cold rain. The recent snow in SW England was an example of perfect synoptics. The intensity of that precipitation helped deliver the snow to ground level.
I also agree with the idea of some unsettled damp summers and hot ones. It's going to come down to which side of the kinked jet stream we get stuck on. Even last year with our unsettled summer delivered a notably warm June and Sept period.
One thing moving forward that is certain. We will see heat records broken almost every year. We've already seen a heat record in Jan (19.9C), Feb come within 0.1C of the record CET, and numerous date records set since, including yesterday's highest Min CET.
Will the summer be hot? Absolutely. The devil is in the detail. Hot and stormy, hot and dry? Who knows, but I guarantee heat!
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reef Some of those targets look more achievable than others. 13.9C or higher in May for example, has only ever been achieved twice: 1848 (13.9C) and 1833 (15.1C).
If we even approach the 13.9C figure next month, I will start to believe an annual 11.5C is possible.
Even the sun soaked May 2018 only checked out at 13.3C.
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WYorksWeather The reason I make these bold predictions about heat records is, to use gambling parlance , we are playing with a loaded dice.
I don't expect to reach 12C either this year. The regime we are in right now with all of these wet and cloudy nights leads to very mild 9am/9pm temperatures between Oct-Apr, but we need to lose the low pressure systems after that to get the high CET values.
You can see the high pressure starting to build now to our south and if the jet stream migrates northward, we are at some point going to tap into the heat.
I spent the afternoon at the allotment today and it amazed me to see how quickly the grass dried in the warm, windy conditions.
We could do with more days like today. I'm not a great fan of wind, but I'm even less a fan of muddy, boggy ground.
I will be surprised if we don't get another 11C CET year after the start we have had. It would take a brave person to bet against it now. As your analysis shows, if the mild continues much longer, it becomes odds on.
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Looking like a gradual cool down come mid month. I think somewhere in the low to mid 10s C would be prime right now. There does look to be some cooler nights ahead, but nothing approaching a frost.
A 10.5C finish would tie 2020 and 1943 that currently occupy 4th/5th places.
A 10.4C would place it 6th. A temperature finish not yet achieved.
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Andy Bown I have to wear wellies to reach the compost bins at the bottom of my garden. Never had to do that before in all the years I have lived here. It's repeatedly flooded this winter/spring. The grass is now almost entirely moss.
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Thanks Reef. We won't be far away from that 11.1C after the first part of the month I think. Some really mild days coming up. Personally, I think the month will finish north of that judging by the GFS 6Z and the general model trends. Practically all the weather is coming from the south / south west as far as the forecast goes out to. Couple it with cloud, wind and rain, I can't see where any notable cold will be coming from.
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kold weather I think I calculated 9.5C to secure that title. I may be mistaken though.
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I'm going with
20C on April 15th
25C May 15th
30C on June 15th
The question I have is, has a plume ever delivered two of these milestone temperatures in the same event? So not necessarily on the same day, but within the same weather system or plume?
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Roger J Smith No thanks Roger. I will remain at 9.6C. I don't believe in changing a prediction after the deadline.
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cheeky_monkey I've heard good things about 1983. Though I was around, I don't remember much about it. Would be happy to see out those months again.
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The below would give an Annual CET of 12C
Month Record 2024 ProjectionJanuary 7.5 °C 4.7C (actual)
February 7.9 °C 7.8C (actual)
March 9.2 °C 8.1C (actual)
April 11.8 °C 10C
May 15.1 °C 14C
June 18.2 °C 17C
July 19.8 °C 18C
Aug 19.1 °C 18C
Sept 17.0 °C 16C
Oct 13.3 °C 12.5C
Nov 9.9 °C 9C
Dec 9.6 °C 9C
That will be achieved in my lifetime, I think.-
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Relativistic It's an interesting proposition. Could you give me a theoretical CET 12C year,month by month keeping within CET monthly records, preferably mainly 1C below.
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Don If I could change my 9.6 to 11.6C I would. We'll just have to hope for a high pressure system to park itself over us leading to see cold nights.
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Looking like Roger's 11.5C prediction will be closest 10 days in.
Imagine if we had a mild, cloudy/ windy April with a warm plume at the end? The 2011 record would be put to bed.
It's those mild 9am values that have a massive influence this early in the year.
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Will 2024 have the new hottest day on record for the uk?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
What would the July CET look like if we had a continuation of Spring 2024-like pattern of humid, cloudy mild nights with minimums consistently in the mid to high teens, with above average precipitation limiting the highs to temps in the mid 20s C at best? Could we get a record CET of 19.9C without hitting 30C the whole month?
This is not the weather I am looking for, just a theoretical question. What was the closest CET July month to this?