BlueSkies_do_I_see

I wondered how much NW members thought this year's record ice melt would have an effect on this year's winter and whether it heightens our chances of delivering another cold and blocked winter? On a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being "It will have absolutely no bearing on whether we get a cold and blocked winter" to 10 "it is certain to result in a cold and blocked winter"

Can I remind everyone getting despondent about the prospects for the start of winter to take a look at the comments being left on the same day 2 years ago. We were just one month away from one of the coldest ends to November in many a year. Noone was picking up on the cold. In fact, I can't see reference to what was about to hit until well into November.. This is a link to this forum on Oct 22 2010. On this day in 2010, the MET office said the following: UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010: After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time. Also when was this weekends cold snap picked up? About 2 weeks ago, initially by the GFS model.. It is fascinating how advanced some of this long range stuff is but it's all guess work beyond about 2-3 weeks. So don't give up yet. I think we'll have a cold part of winter with snow. I have faith because of the weird weather we have had this year, what with a dry winter, then downpours all summer. We seem to go long stretches with the same weather. Right now we have blocking again, and that seems to be the pattern now for the last few winters. Why will this be any different?

Difference is the weird weather just keeps on coming. I'll stick my neck out and say we'll have snowy cold winters more now, more dry warm springs and more unsettled summers. Not every year, but more often. More floods, stronger winds. Why? Cus we are influencing the whole planet's weather systems now due to the melting ice, and the heat we generate. Probably more than half of you will disagree with me. I don't know how to do a poll on here. Maybe someone could ask that question below for me? Are our cold winters and poor unsettled summers due to our influence on the climate, or just a natural variable?

When was the last year that cold weather hit in late October and stayed cold throughout til Christmas? 1740?

How long has Britain been under northern blocking and or a southerly jet stream? We seem to have spent most of the spring and summer being lashed by rain and before that we had blocking through most of 2011 across southern England with drought conditions until the end of March 2012. So am I right in saying most of the last 18 months has been affected? Or longer? When was the last time the jet stream acted as it would be historically expected to for the time of year? If it continues in this vain, what type of weather is possible under the same conditions as we have experienced through the summer and autumn so far? Not just battleground snow events I realise, as it is more complex than that.

So which was the most widespread October snow event to hit the UK? I recall an Oct 28th 2008 snowfall event in Coventry, but I don't think it stuck around for long! Update: Just consulted The history of British winters.. October 1836, snow reached depths of 5-6 inches! Anything more recent than that?

I drove out to the sticks of Shropshire during the cold week before Christmas 2010 and was amazed by the temperature gauge dropping as I cleared the heat island effect of the M6 around Brum. The time I reached my in-laws it was -12 and went down to -17 a couple of nights later. First time in my life I have experienced temps that low.

Thanks for your replies on favourite winters. My favourite snow event would have to be mid February 1985. My father drove us out to see the snow drifts in the country. I remember stepping out and disappearing completely under the snow and nearly fainting from shock. December 2010 was special because I had heard tales of the cold of Dec 1981, but was too young to remember it. Up until about Boxing Day we were on course to beat it for CET temp. It was disappointing when the snow melted as I think we most need the white glow of snow during early Jan when the Christmas decorations come down and everywhere feels dull. I wouldn't be bothered by a very mild spell in early Nov, as it reached 19C in London on November 4th 2010 and we know what followed that a few weeks later. Also mid Jan 1947 was mild, before the snows hit. I believe our winters are now pitched towards extremes due to the influence we are having on the ice caps, heating the oceans etc. It's not proven yet, but another icy blast this winter would have a lot more people convinced as that would be 5 in a row of winters featuring a prolonged cold period (I'm counting the Feb 2012 Cold wave here even though it affected us less than the European continent)

Thought I would introduce myself. I'm Chris. I've been lurking reading the posts most days since January last year. Still very much a beginner but learning a lot reading about SSW events, Azores and Greenland highs etc! Which winter would you like a repeat of if you had to choose - 2008/09, 2009/10 or 2010/11? I'm torn between the lovely white build up to Christmas like we had in Dec 2010 or brightening up a dark and depressing early Feb like 2009. I guess some of you had both in 2009/2010 winter, as the cold hit on about Dec 21 and carried on through most of Jan. Though here in Coventry we had no snow in December! If not one of those, which other winter from the past would you like to relive? My father in law talks mystically about 1947! I hear that was quite a year, as they had a fab summer to follow all the snow.

I would just like to experience a proper blizzard with heavy prolonged snow in a driving wind, with drifts up to the top of the hedges. Not seen that since I was a lad in the mid eighties!

It's been many years since Coventry, where I live, received a large snowfall. Just north and south of us seem to get it! I think early Dec 1990 was the last good one. Personally seeing the weather go downhill during late November like it did in 2010 would be great for me and a cold and frosty festive season with a few blizzards thrown in. I could cope with a mild Feb after that!

I believe, due to the large ice melt occurring year on year, we are now getting longer periods of the same weather which is contributing to a sluggish jet stream. There are many other factors at play of course, including the temp of the stratosphere. I would bank on part of this winter being hit by northern blocking with easterlies bringing snow at some point, but not necessarily the whole season. We got cold spells in the winter of 2008-2009 (Feb), again in winter 2009-10 (Late Dec and Jan), once more in winter 2010-11 (Dec) and to a lesser extent last winter in Feb. We just missed out that time, but just east of us, they were hit hard. So I count that as 4 winters in a row of blocking patterns. I think the winters we will see for the next few years will be a mixture of mild and then super cold. I love the comments on the upcoming winter and can't wait til mid Nov onwards.

WeatherWeb have the Midlands down for 12+ cm. I hope so but I'm expecting about half that.. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=253 First post. Great forum. Been glued to it the last couple of weeks.