BlueSkies_do_I_see

So when does the model forecast thread start looking for warm and sunny weather in FI rather than cold and snow?

It's been more than 3 bad summers. Since 2007 we have had long periods of cold winter weather, warm spring weather and wet or occasionally very dry (2011) summer weather and until this pattern changes I think we are now permanently in a new climatic era of weakened jet stream and I fully expect this to continue this spring and summer. Come back in the Autumn and tell me I was wrong.

When did the UK last receive widespread and substantial snow during the latter part of Feb that stuck around a while? I know we were well and truly buried in 1947 during Feb and early March.

Exactly Aaron! Last hot summer 2006. So will 2013 be memorable? I suspect a warm spring month but a disappointing summer. But i'd love to be dramatically proven wrong! Anything but a repeat of 2008 or 2012. I'd even settle for the boring and unmemorable dry 2011 summer (in the south) over either of those..

When does Netweather release its Spring 2013 forecast? I was hoping for a repeat of recent years, i.e a warm spring month. After all we had a record warm April in 2007 and 2011. Also a very warm May 2008 (and last year Scotland broke its March temperature records 3 days running during late March 2012. So warm springs are the form horse!

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Let's not forget that April 2011 wasn't the only record breaking warm April of recent times. April 2007 had record warmth! http://www.metoffice...2007/april.html So does anyone want to "bet" against a record warm spell during March or April this year? You'd be a brave man/woman to bet against it given recent trends..

So we started the winter cold, then a few weeks of very mild, and about 10 days of snow, but not that cold because of persistent cold cover. We've got 6 weeks left to make or break the winter. A return to zonal rain that plagued us during the latter part of Dec and into Jan and it will be remembered less fondly by the NW members. But it has time yet to be memorable. From a Midlands perspective, it is already an above average winter for snow. But how do you think the rest of the winter will pan out? Here's my punt. Wind, rain and floods into early Feb, followed by a northerly and more snow. Then very mild for early March!

I would rate it 8/10 The last 10 days have produced the most snow in Coventry for over 20 years. We seemed to miss out on most of the snow during the recent cold winters. It started with heavy snow on Monday 14th. Then snowed continually for about 18 hours on Friday 18th producing about 4 inches . Snowed a lot on Sunday 20th producing another 3 inches. Had another bout of snow for a time yesterday and more today as I type! If if doesn't snow again, I will be happy with what we have had this winter. I would rate this in the top 10 snowiest winters of my life - (born in the mid 70s!)

Next time you hear someone complaining about us receiving 3 inches of snow, show them this! http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/

Here's a tip for newbies trying to view the charts in a smartphone. Use this link: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc Select the GFS 500 hpa chart. Click animate. Pinch to zoom the map out a little and it will roll through the run automatically and if you drag the map to the correct postion you will be able to see the UK and the time stamp changing to the top right of the map

Major upgrade on the 0Z GFS run in terms of cold longevity this morning. There is no reintroduction of the Azores high during the whole of the run!

Fantastic switch from the GFS model tonight, that definitely increases the odds of snow warnings being issued by the MET office before the weekend is out if the outputs do not alter. The MET office issued a Red Alert for snow at the beginning of Feb 2009 for the South East. I wonder if another is on the way?

Epic 168 hr chart from the ECM, which is fast becoming the favourite weather model. Has anything like that ever verified?

We're going into the freezer for some considerable time according to the Indie! http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/subzero-temperatures-set-to-drop-as-low-as-15c-next-week-with-cold-weather-front-lasting-until-february-8442886.html

When you believe, like me that that the fact we have had snow events during the last 4 winters has something to do with arctic ice melt and a displacement of energy south, when the models start to signal we might be going into the freezer again during the 5th winter, it is less of a surprise! The poor summers we also get in this process aren't so great but I can cope with the warm sunny spring and cold winter episodes!

If any of you accessing this through a mobile, here is a link to Ian Fergusson's forecast. I couldn't get the one posted earlier to work. http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

I'm happy to have mild weather for a while - providing the SSW delivers a northerly or easterly. It's exciting tracking it in from T384 to T0! Almost like we know what's coming before the models do.. If someone offered me a repeat of Feb 2009, I'd bank! That event delivered 4" of snow IMBY.

We are on the cusp of something big.. I just went out to buy some new boots in readyness. Yak Trax at the ready!

I'll wait til next Sunday to see if it is showing mild or cold for the following week. My chips are on cold.

Enjoy the dry, mild weather for the next week. Watch out for big developments for coldies later this week. A SSW is now highly likely according to Matt Hugo on Twitter.

IMBY Feb 09 delivered. Some great sledging was had on the hills of Leicestershire. I would happily settle for a repeat of that this year. Will the stratosphere deliver a SSW to provide a chance?

I wouldn't get overtly concerned to what the MET Office are predicting for Christmas, because they were forecasting a possible easterly last week. The position of the UK sitting right between the Atlantic and the massive continental block has even the most powerful computer running round in circles right now. A nightmare for the pros to forecast but great fun for casual observers like me! What to put on Countryfile for their Friday output? Definitely worth tuning in for.. I would take a look at their own "Snow at Christmas" page before heading off to the bookies to put your money on a White Christmas. http://www.metoffice...ow-at-christmas

So in the last few days we have seen the models predicting a show stopping easterly and a couple of days later the Atlantic smashing through a huge block. Both solutions are highly unlikely and anything after 96 hours.seems to be swinging wildly and why it makes snow chasing so exciting!

Ok so we have a downgrade with 4 days to go but these things balance themselves out and we will suddenly get a massive upgrade out of nowhere. The cold is firmly established across Europe. It only takes a nudge and it will come flooding back across us!