BlueSkies_do_I_see

Yes, I noticed that too. Winter season seemed to go on for months this year, so the winter model fans must be exhausted after posting for so long. See you in the Autumn guys - thanks for all the great insights and reports! But l am an all year round netweather person. I am one of the people who if you asked "Would you prefer to see a '76 style summer or a '47 winter, I wouldn't know which one to pick. U guess that is why I chose 1947 winter and summer as my weather preference on here as it was probably the only year of last century to combine an epic winter with a lovely warm summer! The GFS model this morning seems to be predicting a combination of Atlantic lows interspersed with warm southerlies to my untrained eye? Ideal growing conditions if so!

At some point we are going to get a prolonged hot and dry summer. It happened in 2003 and 2006 and we had record breaking heat. The US Midwest where my brother lives had record heat and drought last summer whilst we got soaked. Noone can say 2013 is going to be a hot one at this range but I will say this. The next 76/95/03 style summer we get will break temperature records. That I am certain of. The problem is knowing which of the coming summers it will occur! My hunch is we have another 2010 style summer. It gets split between a hot and dry half during June and early July but the weather breaks and we get a wet and soggy end. I hope the kids have a decent summer holiday weather though, as let's hope the above doesn't happen!

I have a mid April birthday and this could be the first year of my life that my parents' hawthorn hedges might not be out by then which would be remarkable. In a strange way, all this extreme weather may help to convince the powers that be there is something might be awry. Everywhere you go people are talking about this delay to spring. If this carries on it will be difficult to ignore. On a more positive note, when the warmth does come, the plants will explode into colour which should be spectacular to behold!

Some brilliant replies there guys, thanks. So if the cold locked in pattern holds out til the 15th (not that I want it to!), we could be looking at coldest first half of April since 1917?

I agree, June 09 and 10 had some great spells of weather. In lots of ways, if I was only offered one good summer month, I would choose June everytime. The beaches are less crowded, kids still at school and the longest days! Alex, sounds like the SE has seen the best of recent summers. I can't remember the Midlands being quite as good. The best summer of all is one that receives plenty of warm days interspersed with great thunderstorms to clear the air before things get too overbearing. No real heatwaves to speak of but plenty of days in the low to mid twenties with pleasant breezes. Name that summer?

So when was the last "average" summer with good growing conditions, no heat waves, droughts or floods. Seems like the last 10 years have been plagued with the above. 2003 August Heatwave http://en.wikipedia....opean_heat_wave 2006 July Heatwave http://en.wikipedia....opean_heat_wave 2007 Summer of floods http://en.wikipedia...._Kingdom_floods 2008 Parts of UK received 170% of avg rainfall http://www.metoffice...008/summer.html 2009 July 200% wetter than average http://www.metoffice...009/summer.html 2010 August some flooding http://www.guardian....outhern-england 2011 drought in southern half of England http://www.metoffice...011/summer.html 2012 Wettest in 100 years http://www.metoffice...-wettest-summer Can't remember the other years in the last decade? Any extremes?

Ok, thanks. Let's hope it warms up so the April CET record low is not under threat. Like someone posted up earlier, it's almost certain that April is going to be a colder than average month now.

Does anyone know what the record low CET is for the first week of April and how close is 2013 looking to beating it?

So we had the "Hunt for cold" Model discussion earlier in the winter. How about a "Hunt for warmth" thread now? We need all the help we can get!

Can anyone tell me how cold the last 2 weeks of March are looking and how far back we would have to go to find an equivalent end to March as we are having/forecast to have?

Bobby, this is a summary of what I wanted to collate but have not been able to. When you list it like that, it is amazing how much extreme weather we have had. I very much appreciate you taking the time to write it.

I will be interested to see how long until the most ardent winter weather fan screams "no more easterlies, its April soon, enough with it!"

There is little doubt now in my mind that arctic ice melt is having a significant effect on the meandering jet stream. I say this not because I think we are trying to be hood winked by governments or scientists. I say it out of sadness! The last sunny and warm summer month in the UK was June 2010. The rest of the summer was.cool. 2011 was mainly cloudy and dry in the Midlands were I live and I don't need to remind you how terribly wet 2012 was. It wouldn't be so bad, but we had a summer nearly as poor just 5 years previously (2007). Ok so the slack jet stream occasionally delivers us some lovely extended sunny spells, such as the warmest CET April in 350 years by some distance in 2007. The amazing thing was that this record was again smashed in April 2011 by a similar margin. I wouldn't worry about us entering a mini ice age. Not when the USA had one of their hottest and driest summers on record in 2012 and Australia has just announced their 2013 summer has been the hottest on record. It's more likely that whilst one area of the globe is stuck under a rain cloud, another is relentlessly being baked. I don't expect to convince everyone that man is having such a profound impact on the climate, but I think more people will start to take it seriously as the extremes roll in. What will summer 2013 bring? Well its pot luck really where the jet stream sticks. We might have another washout 2007/2012 heaven forbid or maybe another 2011 drought (incidentally poor Scotland was lashed with rain that summer too). What I don't think is likely is that we will see a summer devoid of extremes. I pray I am proven wrong as it is a depressing thought if all I have typed above is accurate. On a side note, I took my holidays in Inverness, Southern Ireland and Mid Wales last year. Loved all those places and people but didn't see too much sun. Desperate now for some vitamin D!

I often see you guys discussing the relative merits of the models and sometimes criticising the GFS model for its poor performance. This article seems to confirm this: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/storms-highlight-flaws-in-u.s.-weather-forecasting-model-15744

True, I agree its very unlikely to produce those temperatures in late March, but the last 2 springs have produced early warm weather in spring, with record warm April in 2007 and 2011. I'm not ruling out more snow, but the trend is for warmer springs not cooler. That's why I'm being bullish!

3 to 4 weeks til temps in the low 20s are realistically possible in the UK as happened last year.

Thank goodness March is here. Desperate for the sun to shine and see a few 15s on the map next week rather than 5s..

I would say that the last time we had a run of such poor summers in succession was in the 1960s. I wasn't alive back then, but is there anyone who was and has a good memory can confirm this? ( or who can find some stats on this) So Hillbilly, the 80s produced a lot of decent weather. No wonder I can remember so many good beach holidays in North Devon as a kid! We are not booking any holiday this year, but are going to travel on the back of a Netweather forum forecast of hot weather at 10 day range :-) Even the worst summers on record have included one good week between May and Sept..

Since 1976 we have had a hot summer about once every 6-7 years on average. Notable ones that stick in the memory in my lifetime are 1976,1983,1990,1995,2003,2006. Since then we have had some decent summer spells but not a summer you could write home about! Presuming our recent bad summers aren't due in part to climate change, which I strongly suspect is the case, by the law of averages we should be due a hot one fairly soon? Or are hot summers rarer than once every 7 years if you go back further in time?

Thanks for the replies. It seems like its been a long winter and the twists and turns on the model thread have been exciting. I know some on here will be sad the winter is drawing to a close but then we need a break in order to make the anticipation of winter 13/14 more exciting next November.

Thanks for that Aaron. I remember at the back end of September last year a few members said they would be 'retiring' until the spring! Final question, what do winter weather model followers do in the summer when the hunt for snow ends? Incidentally the year I was born it snowed on June 2 in the UK (1975). Do we have records of the best years for thunderstorms in the UK the same way we have epic years for snow and cold? I guess having a warm summer helps which hasn't been evident in recent years!

So there must be a crossover period when warmies start taking over the thread, I guess sometime in the next 3 weeks? And some are looking for Spring and others for an extension of winter?

Let's not forget, we had the warmest ever March days recorded last year in parts of Scotland on 3 successive days! (Would love to see the FI showing that soon) But then 2 weeks later I headed for a wedding in Inverness and had to get my car dug out of a foot of snow to get off my hillside accommodation!

I agree. From early November I have been on the hunt for snow. But now, having enjoyed the snowiest winter in Coventry since 1991, I need some warmth. March cannot come quick enough. There must be a lot of people on here feeling the same way?