BlueSkies_do_I_see

CryoraptorA303 ino worries, sometime before May 11 just write Id like to choose this one from my three I mentioned originally

LetItSnow! Would an exceptionally wet spring reduce the chances of a raging hot summer? (Not that I want a wet spring!)

On 14 July 2022, the BBC Weather app had the following forecasts showing for London Heathrow Monday 18 July Max 41C/ Min 23C Tues 19 July Max 40C / Min 19C Netweather.tv also posted this to Facebook, temps in Eastern England of 43C https://www.facebook.com/share/thk8VMZV1hHrcRoh/ I personally think 41C will be reached by 2030 and possibly 42C. As a lifelong Midlander, the last few summers have felt too hot for me. In the future I will be checking the weather app and heading to a coastline that is cooler, usually that's Northumberland.

CoventryWeather I think, like the CET competition, if you are going to alter your prediction, you must declare you wish to change your prediction in your subsequent amendment post Best to stick to your original guess if you can, but I am going to limit any changes to one time, as it makes collation after May 11, much easier. These stats show me that a highest temperature below 33C unlikely imo.. probably only 1 in 10 years going forward.

Good call WYorksWeather Ok competition closing date is May 11. That's exactly 2 months from now. Plenty of time to post your predictions. I am not an admin so I cannot alter my initial post. But if an admin wants to, they are welcome to alter things around. I also wish I had added the dates the records were set. I'm no IT expert (I spend my working life mainly in Word and Excel). So I copied the data from the source site I declared at the end of my initial post, into Word. Then converted to a table with columns, with space the separator. Then copied this table into Excel. I created columns between the data and inserted spaces into these blank columns. Then when I pasted into the forum, it kept the spaces to make it more legible. I'll add a date to my original temp prediction 37.4C. July 25th

I'm going to declare the winner based on their first temperature declared that is to one decimal place. In the event of a temperature tie, the winner will be the closest date to the actual recorded hottest day.

Yes Matt, that would make every guess more unique. Feel free to add a date too to your prediction. If you can get date and temperature correct I will be seriously impressed!

I was thinking about turning this into an official competition. All guesses would have to be within a tenth of a degree. Realistically the warmest day would be somewhere between 28.0C and 41.0C so that's 130 different answers. It would be great if I could think of a way to make it possible that only one person can claim each individual temperature by embedding some fancy spreadsheet, but that's beyond my skill level! But in short can you make your guesses to the tenth of a degree, e.g. 38.1C instead of 38C

What temperature do you think the hottest day of the year will reach this year? My guess is 37.4C Here are some stats that I researched earlier: Between 1957-2014 the temperature has exceeded 35C on 6 occasions Since 2014 the temperature has exceeded 35C 6 more times. (Avg 36C) Here are the hottest days of the year since 1875. I have added the word Yes to years that exceeded 35.0C. Year High (C) Reached above 35C? 1875 30.1 1876 35 1877 29.7 1878 33.9 1879 26.8 1880 30.7 1881 35 1882 29.2 1883 28.7 1884 34.1 1885 33.3 1886 31.7 1887 31.7 1888 31.1 1889 30.3 1890 28.3 1891 30 1892 29.4 1893 34.7 1894 30.6 1895 30.6 1896 31.2 1897 32.2 1898 33.4 1899 32.4 1900 35.1 Yes 1901 33.3 1902 31.9 1903 31.1 1904 32.2 1905 30 1906 35.6 Yes 1907 30 1908 32.8 1909 33.3 1910 28.9 1911 36.7 Yes 1912 32.8 1913 29.4 1914 32.2 1915 32.2 1916 30 1917 33.9 1918 33.9 1919 32.2 1920 27.8 1921 34.4 1922 32.8 1923 35.6 Yes 1924 32.2 1925 33.3 1926 32.2 1927 29.4 1928 32.8 1929 32.2 1930 34.4 1931 28.3 1932 36.1 Yes 1933 34.4 1934 33.3 1935 33.3 1936 31.7 1937 33.3 1938 30.6 1939 32.2 1940 32.8 1941 34.3 1942 33.9 1943 33.9 1944 32.8 1945 32.2 1946 30.6 1947 34.4 1948 35 1949 33.3 1950 33.3 1951 30 1952 33.9 1953 33.9 1954 30.6 1955 32.8 1956 30 1957 35.6 Yes 1958 29.4 1959 34.4 1960 30.6 1961 33.9 1962 27.8 1963 28.9 1964 32.8 1965 29.4 1966 28.9 1967 30.2 1968 33.3 1969 32.8 1970 32.2 1971 30.3 1972 29.4 1973 32.1 1974 28 1975 34.2 1976 35.9 Yes 1977 30 1978 28.8 1979 30.4 1980 29.4 1981 29.5 1982 30.7 1983 33 1984 31.9 1985 30.1 1986 32 1987 30.2 1988 30.2 1989 34.4 1990 37.1 Yes 1991 32.1 1992 30.3 1993 29.7 1994 33.4 1995 35.2 Yes 1996 33.2 1997 33.1 1998 32.2 1999 32.7 2000 32.6 2001 32.2 2002 32.6 2003 38.5 Yes 2004 31.5 2005 32.6 2006 36.5 Yes 2007 30.1 2008 30.2 2009 31.8 2010 31.7 2011 33.1 2012 32.4 2013 34.1 2014 32.3 2015 36.7 Yes 2016 35.2 Yes 2017 34.5 2018 35.6 Yes 2019 38.7 Yes 2020 37.8 Yes 2021 32.2 2022 40.3 Yes 2023 33.5 Source: Hottest day of each year from 1900 TREVORHARLEY.COM

Derecho Those with a guess in the high 7s and 8s are looking good at the moment . My 9.3C guess would require the warmth to continue right til the end, which is unlikely.

Thanks for all of your replies. I remember the May 2020 frosts. I was posting gardeners beware posts to my Facebook and my wife was bringing in pot plants back into the kitchen! In short, to get no further frosts would amaze most on here then. I am hoping not, as it would signal a prolonged period of unsettled weather, with cloud, wind and rain aplenty and a distinct shortage of clear night skies.

I have a friend asking me if we are likely to see any snow or frosts on Coventry for the remainder of Spring. (He's a beekeeper) I replied it's unlikely we will see snow now, but can't rule out another frost. My question to the group is, how rare is it to not see any further frosts this early in Spring? (in the Midlands region especially)

No problem with heat but high humidity can go. No problem with snow but cold rain/sleet can go. No problem with wind as long as it is blowing away the rain. No problem with rain when it falls overnight. If I had to remove only one of the above it would be excessive rainfall.

I would like to see prolonged heat rather than a heatwave that ends with a huge storm. If I could live only one summer over again it would undoubtedly be 2018. That summer seemed to start in May!

In Absence of True Seasons What you written strikes a chord with me. Back in 2001, I decided to quit my job and try out Australia for a year on a working holiday visa. Loved the place. Like you say, it's about being outdoors without being cold. Obviously in Aus you head north in April (their Autumn) to get the better weather. I did exactly that. I arrived in Sydney , did a bit of sight seeing (Blue Mountains are a must see - a 2 hour train ride from Sydney), then bought a car in Melbourne and headed north in March as the leaves were starting to turn. By May I was living in Cairns, Far North Queensland. That place has a superb winter climate: Dry, 25C, daily high which is my dream weather. Worked and lived there for a few months and then carried into the interior of Queensland, Darwin, then across Western Australia and down into Perth. I didn't even need to put the outer waterproof layer on my old tent once. It never rained. Just look up at the stars every night. Eventually crossed the Nullabor back to Melbourne to sell the car again. One day I will go back. But, I agree with what you say. It's easier to be happy being warm in a country with 50,000 km of coastline, 11,761 recorded beaches and 650 National parks (that's 146 more than the whole of Europe). Quite a few of the National Parks in the outback are unmanned. You just put some money in an honesty box, or did when I visited.

Fen Wolf I'm trying to think of a place that ticks all of those boxes! I'm struggling tbh - Russia?

Fen Wolf I feel the same about the UK. My brother emigrated to the Midwest of America in the mid 2000s. His weather is a lot more varied than ours. He called me last week to say his daytime high went from 28C on Monday 26th Feb (which is a record high for that day), to a high of 2C two days later! Like Arctic hare's comment above, I can't leave right now. Too many people here are dependant on me. What would be your ideal climate if you could buy your way into any country on the planet? For me it would be in a country/region that is large enough to migrate freely between its borders so you can always be in the right temperature. Prior to the referendum, it was simple - the EU. I could go from Spain to Sweden and remain always pleasantly warm year round. The other would be Australia. It's not a problem staying warm in winter, but maybe too hot at times in the summer.

Atleastitwillbemild An increasing amount of people are doing it. As much as they would like to tax it, some things will always remain free - the warmth of the Spanish sun in winter, the golden sand on your toes and the sound of the ocean, the serenity of a mountain pass, bird song etc. You have to hope that sometime in the next decade there might be a closer tie with Europe again. If not, i'll be returning to Australia that I left 23 years ago. It's never cold there. Just head north in their winter. The way I see it is you can burn through £10,000 visiting Florida Disney World and Gulf coast for a few weeks or spend the same amount of money with 9 months on the road.

I also suffer with SAD. I bought a SAD lamp which helps a little. It's always hardest in March for me as we have had to endure Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb. Let's hope for a decent April. We've had some really glorious Aprils in the last 17 years. 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2020 spring to mind. That's roughly one decent April every 4-5 years. We are due one.. I'll keep saving a little each month for my future camper van in retirement.* Then I will just drive somewhere with lower annual rainfall in the winter (Spain) and somewhere to escape the heatwaves in the summer (Scotland). I've worked out the average daily high temperature in Southern Spain in January and Northern Scotland in July is about the same, 18C. *If the interest rate remained at a constant 5% for the next 40 years, and you started putting away £5 out of the pay packet each week from the age of 25, you would have £30,645 on your 65th birthday.

I remember March 23rd 2013. We had 5 foot snow drifts on some stretches of the lane near my parents' house in rural Leicestershire. Widespread snow March 2013 WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK In March 2013 an active weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic brought heavy rain and flooding to south-western parts of the...

So we have an extra bonus day of winter to look forward to (I say that through gritted teeth as a person who looks forward to spring after September ends..) Then onto March. My father used to tell me it was the month that comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. Though that was his memories growing up thru the 1950s and 1960s, the latter of which was a cold decade. Probably not to much these days. So what does count as a mild day in early and late March respectively?

This one's going to the wire. It's dropped to 7.8C

Derecho Given the final two days of the month for Stoneyhurst and Pershore are forecasting 11C/9C on 28th and 10C/4C, it would a miracle if it dropped below 7.9C. My money is on an 8.0C finish.

Weather-history I do remember that yes. Loved Philip Eden You might enjoy this from 2008 from this very forum:

Scorcher it is based 9am to 9am as I have read that a lot in the past on here. Does that change things much? It could drop 7.9 to the 26th, 7.7 to the 27th then rise 7.8 to the 28th, and then all be hinging on the 29th..