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Posts posted by festivalking
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20 minutes ago, Nights King said:
Looking great for you fk!
id like to see another 30 mile push north though
Jeeeeez - fingers crossed. I just think of 2013 and the red warning we had that night only for it to hit the channel islands instead!
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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:
It's a shame that this could arrive later into the night, it will just be a tad too warm for snow here at the moment.
I'm hoping to get a weather station in the coming days so hopefully I can get better readings.
Yes very useful. Try and get one that records dew points as thats the one that tends to scupper snow in the south west.
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2 minutes ago, Nights King said:
You look very well positioned fk. Your right I have seen these forecasts go very wrong just few hours out and end up in south wales so I just hope we see a few flurries break through into wilts just maybe
You never know. We are on the south western slope of the moor. At 200 metres we are certainly well placed than say folks in plymouth, but we are often on the margins of a decent snowfall. In these marginal set ups the snow line tends to be above 300 metres (only half a mile from me). We suffer in my location to the proximity of the tamar estuary, its a huge body of water and is only 5 miles away I'm sure it effects our DP and general tendency to get really cold.
The fabled snow narnia village of princetown is but 5 miles up the road but its a hugely different climate to here. It sits at 500 m/asl and is often 3c colder at all times of the year (sometimes 6c difference to plymouth city centre) it certainly picks up its fair share of snow days. If the ppn is there in the next 24 hours they will be in business.
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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Radar Extra just jumped to 9:05.
The 'arm' is reaching a little east than UKV modelled for 09:00 but otherwise it's pretty close. UKV appears too showery with the NE flank but the radar might be smoothing out some details while it's still so far offshore.
The main uncertainty for today is how far east the precipitation makes it within the westerly upper flow before fizzling out. Forecast models are showing little interest in getting it past western Devon at the most but I've seen this process underestimated enough times past to know that some very light snow can't be ruled out further east. Nothing special for most, just a possible decoration to add to the festive ones. Convergence may boost the rates over the moors, though.
Tonight, area of positive vorticity is predicted to run east along the boundary zone - its precise track will determine where any heavier precipitation occurs.
Interesting really to see how the warmer air interacts with our current cold airmass in terms of inroads or skirting along the channel. Feels like a nowcasting sort of 24 hours coming up.
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8 minutes ago, Singularity said:
It's now showing 8:05 on the mobile version of the radar but still 5:10 on the browser version... suggests they're getting there but still some issues to resolve. Hopefully it'll be back up within an hour or two!
I've got to 8:15 on the browser.....baby steps!
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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Of all the days for the radar network to take several hours off! As of 4:50 when it cut out there was somewhat closer proximity precipitation than I’ve seen modelled.
Oh no any idea when it is due back on? Had to be today!
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When the sun comes up this is a very useful webcam
Dartmoor Princetown Live Webcam
CAMSECURE.CO.UKLive streaming webcam from Princetown in Dartmoor Devon UK. This live webcam shows views from Princetown towards the moors and the infamous...- 2
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5 minutes ago, John88B said:
The forecast I saw said rain, sleet and snow but turning more readily to snow as the day goes on.
Yes overnight could be interesting. Not that it is always right but the absence of any weather warning makes me wonder if it will be just fluff in the breeze mind you anything that falls from the sky should add to the ice risk. Sunday morning was an ice rink round here.
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30 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Dartmoor has snow all day and evening by the looks of it.
Nothing here yet! Mind you we are only at 200 metres. Met office app always over egg the snow risk. Its relatively mild today at 1.6c. DP about 0.5. If we are to get anything significant today I'd suggest it will a 300 m/asl event, certainly during the day.
Radar is pretty bare at the moment for the moor.
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Update on the snow tomorrow for Devon and Cornwall. Looks a bit wet rather than white tomorrow night for Cornwall with patchy snow for Devon certainly on the moors. But then Wednesday afternoon looks like a heavier period of snow for Cornwall.
Usual caveats apply. Only one model and is just one possibility but a possibility all the same.
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Met office ups the ante somewhat with the snow getting to Poole. HIgh parts of devon and east cornwall in line for 5 hours of light snow elsewhere rain. 4 different models with 4 different outcomes. Best bet stick your head out the window at 10pm tomorrow and see what is what
EDIT: Arome model suggests brushing the cornish coast with rain and snow in land.
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Splodge or PPN just entering the south hams area from the channel could turn to snow if it makes it inland, heading in a NW direction. Could lead to real icy conditions.
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1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:
When will the met office update theirs?
Anytime but I have to go but I'm nipping out now so try and get on it later
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12z GFS has it even more west based, with west cornwall the favoured spot.
By tonight's run I'd suggest it will not make landfall at all
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2 minutes ago, rug said:
Thanks for the reply, I’m just further up near Teignmouth, hoping it makes it here….
Thats just one model. GFS running now will give us another clue
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8 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:
Does the next frame reach the IOW?
Nope it fades towards france.
11 minutes ago, rug said:Any more of South Devon have a chance?
That's the furthermost extent on this model
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12z ICON brings cornwall into play for snow tuesday evening and night. Extends up to Dartmoor as well.
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6z GFS says no. So only UKMO suggesting it. Their next high resolution run is at 3pm so will know more this evening. My hunch is it will slip through the channel.
The breakdown on Sunday will be a rain event where as up north it could be a mega snow to rain event
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23 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:
So regarding to the next few days, do we still have the system skirting the south coast Tuesday evening? Or is that looking desperate?
The models keep changing their mind. Today UKMO suggest some snow along the coast tomorrow night but the other models have backed away. So in answer to your question who knows!
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Yes indeed 11c here by Sunday. But before then have woken up to see the met office suggesting there will be 5 hours of snow on tuesday evening. Even into Plymouth snow is predicted. Yikes.
Oh and it is -2.9c
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
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