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CWT2012

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Everything posted by CWT2012

  1. CWT2012
    Don't want a northerly, as useful as a chocolate teapot in our region unless it is North Sea coast facing
  2. CWT2012
    I think there are 3 possibilities for significant depths 1) Thames streamer, there may never be a Feb 1st 2009 again in our lifetimes but if the right pieces fall into place there could be a very good covering if a Thames streamer takes place 2) Persistent snow in Kent, Kent looks like having possibly 36hr window of persistent snow, with heavier bursts some v significant accumulations over higher parts could occur IMHO 3) Everything moving north, there looks to be some beefy snow in northern France this weekend, the 12z is 50 miles further north, couple more runs pushing things a further 50 miles north and that heavy stuff for northern France could plaster the SE with snow I think Even Exeter are sounding more positive for snow with each update from Ian F, couple of days ago it went from no snow to flurries to snow but insignificant amounts, the continual upgrading of potential from Ian F is encouraging
  3. CWT2012
    He was wrong about his snow hurricane but he is one of the big beasts along with BFTP, TEITS, John Holmes, John Pike, Steve Murr etc, there are probably about a dozen or more who have serious credibility and I think he is one of them
  4. CWT2012
    The potential for something significant is higher than it was this morning IMHO What was looking like a fairly benign event is now maybe just maybe something to get excited about, all to play for
  5. CWT2012
    Disagree tbh, everything is at least 50miles further north, that carries on then the v heavy snow for northern France could make it's way into our region Plus the biggest beast of the lot has thrown his hat into the Thames streamer ring, I would say it is a sizeable upgrade for the region
  6. CWT2012
    I am going to stick my neck out and say that somewhere will have at least a foot of lying snow at some point this weekend Kent or South Downs have to be favourites but north downs / South West London may be the sweet spot if there is a potent Thames streamer
  7. CWT2012
    Dramatic upgrade in the 12z Precip in an expanded area, Thames streamer of some sort almost cast in stone if the 12z verifies, precip heavier It is looking like Roger Smith may well have been right with his depth predictions if there is continued upgrades in the next 2 days We could be on the brink of a memorable spell of weather
  8. CWT2012
    The potential for a streamer is the only thing that makes this spell exciting, the difference between a few grains blowing around in the wind or a few inches of snow, clutching at straws maybe but this weekend would be a boring spell of weather away from Kent but for streamer potential
  9. CWT2012
    Saturday looks perfect for a Thames streamer there, unless I have read the chart wrong that looks like the perfect ENE flow off the continent to send a shower train from holland straight down the estuary
  10. CWT2012
    Am concerned about a Greenland High becoming too entrenched as they have been responsible for the succession of washout summers, wish GH would be here in winter and go do one in the spring/summer But I do think that we have another month of potential snow events, a below average march is my prediction temperature wise
  11. CWT2012
    My prediction was based on my belief we would have a Thames streamer this weekend, that is still a possibility although am less excited about the prospects of that than I was yesterday As things stand I think the models and the Met are underestimating the precipitation of the weekend and there might well be a pleasant surprise in store, time will tell
  12. CWT2012
    Fingers crossed, this weekend is probably our last chance of seeing any real lying snow this winter so it would be good to have one final good event before winter ends
  13. CWT2012
    That was spectacular, can't begin to imagine the intensity of that, was unreal watching it unfold on the radar
  14. CWT2012
    I reckon we might get 4 or 5 inches by the end of the weekend, looks like a good 36hrs of light to moderate snow showers over Sat/Sunday
  15. CWT2012
    Looks like the Cherbourg peninsula has hit the jackpot yet again After getting a foot of snow in 90 mins at end of Jan looks like they are in the sweet spot again
  16. CWT2012
    Significant upgrades in 12z both in snow potential and the areas that will see snowfall
  17. CWT2012
    Snow can go on till April, I even saw a cricket match where snow stopped play in May so I don't think March arriving means the end of winter by any means Things don't look as promising as yesterday for disruptive snow but Ian F dropped hints last night that snow might be heavier than initially thought so there is hope not to mention possible events at the weekend that are not yet on the models
  18. CWT2012
    Roger Smith in the models thread Page 33, post 656, am on iPad so can't copy paste the link
  19. CWT2012
    I feel we could be on the brink of something very special this weekend, if there is not a Thames streamer over the weekend it will be the biggest shock since Mike Tyson got his ass kicked by Buster Douglas. Everything is falling into place, wind direction, uppers, activity on the continent, wind speed Even a big beast on here is talking of a foot of snow so we could be on the brink of something that will be talked about on here for years to come Fingers crossed
  20. CWT2012
    Thames streamer looking more and more likely by each run ENE wind direction? - check -10 and beyond uppers? - check Cold pool and snow activity on the continent? - check 20mph+ winds? - check Nothing is cast in stone but it will be a major shock if there is not a Thames streamer of some sort between Friday-Sunday
  21. CWT2012
    Things looking very good for a Thames streamer of some sort Saturday into Sunday, whether it will be disruptive like Feb 2009 remains to be seen but the dominoes are slowly falling into place
  22. CWT2012
    I believe that the potential, with potential being the operative word, is there for a Thames streamer this weekend ENE wind, firm wind speed, uppers of -10 and beyond, all those to me scream potential and if the dominoes fall into place I do believe a repeat of Feb 09 is a possibility, not saying it is cast in stone, not urging anyone to go stock up on bread and milk, just feel that this weekend COULD be something special
  23. CWT2012
    Genuine question, 6 days before the legendary Thames streamer of Feb 09 what was your prediction 6 days out? would you have laughed at anyone saying that come Sunday the SE would be buried in over a foot of snow?
  24. CWT2012
    Feb 2009 came out of the blue though We were forecast snow during the week via the models to come up through France, light and not disruptive but it was not until the Saturday that the models showed something brewing in the estuary, and even then it was going to be fairly light and again not disruptive, Sunday lunchtime the Met Office put out a red alert and the region got over a foot of snow, that is the sort of thing that crops up at short notice totally unforeseen by the models Am not saying there will be another Thames streamer although with ENE and the uppers the potential is there for one, quite high potential, but any snow we get this weekend that is heavy and potentially disruptive probably won't show up on the models for a few days yet Which is why I am not taking the models as cast in stone
  25. CWT2012
    The models don't pick up disturbances, trough disruption, streamers though until usually 24 hrs at best before they occur The fabled Thames streamer of Feb 09 didn't show up in any models days before and the first hints of it were the day before and even then it was not till Sunday morning when we realised something special was about to occur, models picked up jack onions, far as they were concerned it was going to be a few flurries in the east. The most spectacular events tend to be near enough now casts and this is the likelyhood this weekend No point reading the models like an Indian call centre worker reads from a script Any heavy snow for the weekend will probably not even show up by Friday morning on the charts
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