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CWT2012

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Everything posted by CWT2012

  1. CWT2012
    I think things are setting up nicely for a Thames streamer over the weekend, Saturday into Sunday look to be from ENE and with the uppers being -10 to -12 things are looking promising for a Feb 09 style event IMHO plus if you add into the mix potential disturbances I do think that a foot or more of snow could be quite widespread in the SE by the end of the weekend IF and it's a big if, things fall into place
  2. CWT2012
    The Synoptics are certainly falling into place for deep disruptive snow next weekend, things can change and shift south but am much more hopeful than I was this time Just need a ENE shift and it could well be Thames streamer time next weekend IMHO
  3. CWT2012
    I am more a weather, should I say snow, enthusiast it is reflected in my posts really, a kinda less knowledgeable Yamkin or Frosty037 The Thames Streamer is the holy grail of weather conditions for my area and when I see the possibility of one I guess I get a bit over excited No doubt in the coming months I will be getting excited about potential Spanish plumes and thunderstorms But to me GFS is way behind the big 2, even this week it was predicting spring like weather with 12-13 degree temperatures while ECM and UKMO were predicting a robust easterly, in the end it latched onto the ECM / UKMO scenario but the roundabout route it took to get there to me seriously damaged it's credibility again Every wintry spell it seems to be ECM / UKMO v GFS and then the GFS finally comes on board
  4. CWT2012
    Said poster has never to my knowledge called for the GFS to be retired, my views regarding the GFS are clearly more extreme than his I compare the GFS to an amateur hit man, an amateur hitman would go into a bar and spray it with bullets in the hope of killing the intended target, that is what the GFS does IMHO, sprays around any old bullonions scenarios in the hope of getting something right, consistently been outperformed all winter, when it finally locks on to it's target it sprays that with bullets wildly in the hope of getting there. The COBRA reference was to ONE run where I believed the Synoptics were in place for a Thames streamer, ENE winds combined with -10 to -12 uppers
  5. CWT2012
    It is time the GFS was retired, it has lost all credibility this winter, a joke of a model ECM and UKMO are only ones worth taking seriously GFS gets the occasional thing right but even a broken clock is right twice a day
  6. CWT2012
    Good upgrades from the important models, good potential for a Thames streamer as the winds move ENE from E plus good chance of heavy snowfall at 144 if the northwards progression continues
  7. CWT2012
    Still lots to play for Things are disappointing compared with 2 days ago or even yesterday morning but there are 20 lots of model updates before the action is supposed to kick off (next weekend) so the 'winter is over' brigade need to relax, a lot can and will change in those 20 runs.
  8. CWT2012
    Can only comment on individual runs, that was my take on that particular one There will be downgrades and there will be upgrades before anything is nailed on, the 12z is disappointing bar for those living on the SE/E coast but the 18z may upgrade again The next few days will probably be a rollercoaster ride in terms of models and emotions
  9. CWT2012
    Not much of a positive spin can be put on these runs bar the potential for a Thames streamer increasing, fine for Kent and Norfolk/Suffolk but just dreary cold muck for the rest of us, cold is useless without snow Not going to stress though as it's only one set of runs and any more before anything is nailed on
  10. CWT2012
    Best thing to do at this stage The fact it is going to be very cold again is nailed on, the juicy stuff is still in FI so no point scaring people at this stage but the fact the models are upgrading with every run makes FI stuff coming off more likely as the big 3 are broadly in agreement now
  11. CWT2012
    ENE would be perfect, with those uppers and an ENE wind it would be good conditions for a proper Thames streamer
  12. CWT2012
    An easterly is nailed on now, well into the 96hr reliable timeframe so all that is in question now is how much snow it will deliver In terms of snow the models are upgrading with each run with some even showing -10 to -12 uppers which makes heavy deep snow across the eastern half of Britain more and more likely Next week could well be talked about in many years to come, I fully expect COBRA might meet if the GFS 18z verifies
  13. CWT2012
    Just need 1 more day of the weather gods smiling on me, no troughs, occlusions, thames streamers, stalling fronts or polar low's this side of 1.30pm at Heathrow tomorrow please
  14. CWT2012
    Typical ECM teases us for days, GFS on a parallel universe, GFS falls into line with what ECM shows and soon as it happens ECM backtracks.
  15. CWT2012
    GFS has lost all credibility this winter, any GFS run should be taken with a mountain of salt not a pinch
  16. CWT2012
    Thanks yeah seemed to be heading in a direction that might include London Wondered whether it would bump into cold air in the south and turn to settling snow
  17. CWT2012
    That band of exceptionally heavy snow stretching from Manc to Sheffield, any likelyhood that is going to reach the London area?
  18. CWT2012
    A guy called Ryan on the models thread, reckoned UK would see up to 60cm of snow if the UKMO 144 verified He wasnt ridiculed by the others or his post moved to off topic by the mods who tbf do police that thread quite firmly so that makes me think he is onto something even if it is not the 60cm he predicts
  19. CWT2012
    That's quite conservative compared with what our Dutch friend forecast 60cm which is like 26" :o Given up all faith in the GFS now though, useful as a chocolate teapot this winter
  20. CWT2012
    It was all booked and paid for at the same time and my luggage is going straight to BKK so should be alright there UKMO has snowmageddon on the cards around 144 next week, could be an extended holiday if that verifies as looking like 18" snow according to a Dutch expert
  21. CWT2012
    UKMO verifies at 144 then it will be a COBRA event, looking at 18" of snow nationally, especially on eastern side of UK GFS can be consigned to the bin tbh, probably for the rest of the winter, performed poorly most of the winter
  22. CWT2012
    True but have connecting flight, have to change planes at Dubai so any delays would make it difficult to catch my connection, am praying to the weather gods
  23. CWT2012
    Aha true, I do worry, I have had sleeping difficulties last couple of nights because I was worrying about disruptive snow
  24. CWT2012
    Just 8 days, 9 including flying time, then I can start wanting snow again
  25. CWT2012
    Hope you are right but the snow on Wednesday and it looks pretty intense on the GFS was a spanner in the works, just shows that a trough or front can develop out of nowhere. JP is posting fax charts later, I eagerly await them. Admittedly with a fair bit of concern
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