Allseasons-Si

HE! HE! HE! the temps look to creep up a notch or two than forecast a few days ago so the cap could be on a threshold here and become overcome,also i am keeping an eye on this trough through Wales tomorrow evening pushing east.

UK version MWB and the gfs/p going for 36c but i suspect a notch or two on those values,can we squeeze 38c?

Evening guys,sorry i am a bit late to the party because i have been a bit busy sorting the new bathroom suit out some great model watching again today and we have the peak of the heat tomorrow(glad i am on mornings)and then a renewed surge of heat probably at the end of next week/weekend the latest from cpc(rotated)... an upgrade from last night with a more ridge/trough scenario with trough waning in the Atlantic as we go into the extended with ridge SE of the UK over France then pushing slightly north/northeast in the extended to be centered north France,Belgium,Netherlands and NW Germany this is a perfect scenario to getting the heat into the UK from the S/SW with trough stalling in the Atlantic propped up by the ever increasing heights to our S/SE/E,i hope it comes off enjoy your evening

Guys,thanks for all the likes and support in here,much appreciated and i have never liked so much posts during the summer months as it is usually dead in here and i thank you for all your hard work,i could be mistaken for it to be in the winter months on here right now anyway to add to the upgrades here is the EPS height and 850's temps anomaly's last night showed a NW-SE split in temps with the far SE showing a positive temp anomaly,and look at it now trough stalled further west of the UK where as it was just off the coast of Ireland last evening and more of a positive temp anomaly covering most of the UK bed beckons and and stay safe all night guys.

The latest from cpc upgrades are flooding in for week two of August,keep em coming

Days 8-10 from the ecm mean... "BRING IT ON"

I have just had a W.T.F moment looking at the ecm... although the temps won't be as high as this Friday,there could be more wiggle room to match that in ten days.

Yes you did and i hope it comes to fruition a few days ago the models where showing a trough dominated pattern from the NW,so fickle this model watching is and how quick it can change but in the meantime we have a plume at the end of the week and hopefully a breakdown to some beefy storms to boot too so plenty to talk about i would say and hopefully another plume after next week,this summer could end on a high note(excuse the pun)

A glimmer on hope and possibly settling down again after next week as we go into August CPC,EPS and the ec46 gif courtesy of Matt Hugo. i did say last night that there might be a second surge of the Azores hp cell coming to visit,i felt it in my bones enjoy the rest of the week guys and especially Friday,it looks a scorchio now.

To be honest Mark,it's always an outlier in the realms of day ten

Whoooops!!! that's what i get for watching who want's to be a millionaire at the same time warm outlier it is then the day ten mean still looks good though Matt

Mean ECM @ day ten,BANK!!! and the op was a cool outlier at that,second plume anyone.

And here it is in graph form for London.

Interesting to note that the latest UKMO fax chart has a N Spain/BoB low from 96-120 and i wonder how far north this could get with more corrections NW with the already corrections that we have seen with this plume the last few days,Friday evening/night into Saturday could see some fireworks over southern UK especially and as already been mentioned by quiet a few on here over the last few days it is looking toasty Friday here is some 850's from UKMO,ECM,APERGE and ICON GFS temps for 14:00 although we won't know the max temp as it goes from 14:00-20:00 and the peak heat will be between this,we will know more on the day what the act temp will be and i wouldn't rule out somewhere in the low 30's being breached JJF ppn charts from 20:00 Friday-08:00 Saturday all speculative at this moment in time but at least we have something exciting to discuss for the end of this week whether it be sunshine,heat,storms etc,but this does look like a brief plume affair so enjoy it whilst it last's?️?️ could there be a renewed push from the Azores high soon after?,watch this space have a good evening all.

Now you have put the mockers on it gfs gives me 63% chance on Saturday,that will be downgraded to 3% come the time,i hope that i am wrong though.

I remember this clip from a couple of years ago,well worth a watch as it describes what the EF(enhanced fujita) scale is and it's wind speeds.

Wow that was close i would be swearing too and following through at the same time,jeez

AND... # stuck in the middle with you # nothing here today,i was going to chase that storm earlier that developed SE of here but there wasn't enough sferics to warrant a chase hopefully some fireworks come the end of next week.

No a storm has just suddenly popped up there.

Yet but IMBY it is saying on NW that it will feel like the low 30's come Friday/Saturday next week,i will take that and prob some storms breaking out too this plume is starting to get a foothold now and could upgrade further,,,,,,about time too latest from cpc tonight shows the trough further SW than last nights it's about time there is something to talk about in here and not listening to the news on the radio about bloody Johnny depp every half hour

For tomorrow Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jul 2020 ISSUED 21:08 UTC Thu 23 Jul 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan On Friday evening and night, increase mid-level instability and steepening mid-level lapse rates in the vicinity of the cold front could result in some embedded elevated convection evolving across parts of Ireland, drifting towards SW Scotland, NW Wales and NW England. Forecast profiles exhibit moist low/mid-levels overlain by a rather dry mid/upper level layer. While a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible in these areas, confidence in much in the way of lightning is rather low. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Saturday still looking interesting,i may throw a chase day in

Hey guys not posted for a while as it has been quite boring weather wise but some interest in the models as you lot have already covered are starting to show...at last,now at the moment this looks like a fairly brief affair of a plume starting to show later next week,i have been keeping a close eye on this as the carrot is starting to dangle further west in turns of this low out west an example of the ecm at day ten 3 days ago had a feed from the NW and now compare it to the day 7 from the 12z this afternoon the gfs for that same period and i have to say the the gfs is more in line of what it showed at day ten than the ecm,how ironic...!!!! and lastly the latest from cpc tonight days 6-10 has us with a brief window of opportunity to drag in some warmer air from the S/SW with -ve heights in the Atlantic but then this pushers east in the extended but will it? i do hope this plume comes off to savior summer,it has been dross of late(up here anyway) on wards and upwards i hope laters.