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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Liking this,more reinsurance and more info is a good thing,keep it up MWB and not too dissimilar to the 6-10 cpc anomaly's i posted^ the standoff continues. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep,liking this run,a warmer nose of heat extending out of northern Spain further north on this run what gets me is the models do not handle hot spells correctly in my book and for some funny reason nearer the time we end up hotter than what the models showed a few days earlier,i have seen this numerous times with these projected scenarios fantastic model watching at it's finest i would say @Mods,can we have the guess the temps next week please,i am plumping for 35c somewhere in the SE. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey guys and good evening and thanks to all for the great posts"again" and there is no wonder why with how the models are handling this next projected warm/hot spell next week that has been showing for the last few days in the NWP and now it is a question of how long it will last and nobody knows that just yet but post ten days which is an eternity away that the Atlantic tries to make an influence by the trough out W/NW then a re-surge/second bite from the Azores high could potentially influence the weather again later in the period but i am rambling too far ahead...but am i? the latest from CPC/NOAA 500mb height anomaly's for the periods 6-10 and 8-14 days is has how you was from the last week believe it or not with high pressure centered over southern Scandinavia with surface flow from the south with upper flow from the SW,now the extended over the last few days was a trough sitting over or close to the UK but the latest extended shows the trough lifting out to the N/NW,this is an upgrade from previous in terms of keeping the fine warm and settled conditions for the UK especially the SE,the signal to me looks like a NW/SE split to me,how much further can we lift this trough out further to the north for more of the UK to benefit? @Tamara,thanks again for another excellent post and i hope that question mark nearer to the COD on those AAM plots are way off the mark and the momentum is of a positive variety as we go forward into July a last touch,i just watched Man utd v's Spurs and what a fantastic game that was and the respect was of high caliber,it's great to get football going again,bravo and as Vera Lynn use to say...#we'll meet again#,we will...bless her and rest in peace night gang. -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Recording some good Cg's on the Trieste cam^ -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is that a funnel on the Caorle cam? -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
WOW exploding into life now Caorle Live Cam Caorle - Carved Cliff WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM View on the promenade and on the Living Cliff of Caorle and possibly later in trieste. Live Webcam from Trieste City, Italy WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM Watch live streaming the panorama view of the city of Trieste in Italy, this webcam is situated on University of Trieste-Department of Physics -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Another storm developing in the north Adriatic sea again,this looks more active than yesterday. -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Live Webcam from Trieste City, Italy WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM Watch live streaming the panorama view of the city of Trieste in Italy, this webcam is situated on University of Trieste-Department of Physics -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That storm is exploding over the Adriatic sea now,destination Trieste maybe! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I just thought that i would run that for you 500's,850's and 2m temps that run would cause a meltdown in here and in the convective thread if that was to come off?️ -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Pete,i feel a boom coming on what with all the heat and a trigger low to the SW,rinse and repeat of this week....maybe? loving the UKMO and ICON too that also upgrade the warmth at 144,GFS,UKMO,and ICON lovely jubbly?️ -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
But i think it will miss Jesolo to the south,if it keeps going and holds over the Adriatic sea then Trieste could be next in the firing line,also will it meet up with those storms coming down from the NW. Live Webcam from Trieste City, Italy WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM Watch live streaming the panorama view of the city of Trieste in Italy, this webcam is situated on University of Trieste-Department of Physics -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Allseasons-Si replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A storm coming over Chioggia,Emilia-Romagna,Italy as can be seen from Jesolo beach,Veneto,Italy. Live Cam Beach of Jesolo WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM View of Jesolo Beach -
Not very often you see a low moving in this direction from east to west. Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com good look all this afternoon/evening down in the SE,next week is looking hot and hopefully some more... i have booked next week off too so i will be chasing most of the time,that's if a breakdown occurs that is and is a long way off yet.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey guys,not posted in here for a while as i have been busy in the convective thread but i am liking the models for next week as i have next week off,as if i haven't had enough time off with the lock down lol the ECM mean looks decent from 144 hrs and also the GEFS but both flatten the hp cell to the SE in fl but will it,something to keep an eye on over the next few days it has been quiet warm in that sun for the last few days with plenty of convection about too,loving this weather although people will moan at me because it hasn't been wall to wall sunshine or sunbathing weather but that could about to change as we go into next week and maybe some more storms as the Atlantic tries to undo the hp cell modeled next week predicted storm risk,cape and temps all subject to change of cause this is two of my stills from a video i captured in the peak district yesterday with folk lightning then a split CG immediately after looking forward to next weeks projected hot spell and i hope it comes off,i am ready for another tan. my cats reaction to the models next week. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A cell exploded just WSW of me,no lightning but it was good to see the rapid growth of it though,it had some inflow behind it too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
At the moment i have one straw to clutch and that's down over the Wash area as that storm seems to be traveling NW and some cell now back building to the east of it. a very big straw i know but crazy things can happen in this convective setup. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some stills from the storm i videoed earlier,i was quiet chuffed of the outcome. Then a folk split Cg more of the same tomorrow please -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I saw loads of fire engine with the sirens going as i headed back home. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Here is the storm over Bradfield(uncut),peak district,i had to take my daughter as she refuses to stay at home,she has autism spectrum bless her but she enjoyed it, -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
Allseasons-Si replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just got in and i was parked on Mortimer rd west of Bradfield and there was Cg's popping off all over the place,just uploading the raw footage (no editing) now,in the meantime he is some pics from earlier back home and i knew that something was brewing overhead so that's why i headed west,i couldn't of parked in a better spot and my 14 year old daughter loved it. these three back home before i set off and you can see that there was towers going up over me just to the SW and the third photo was looking west and had an unusual hammer head look these last three(not brilliant photos but we was mostly on the move,the last one is the storm leaving us out west over Mam tor. i cannot wait to plough through the video footage as there was some excellent Cg's in it are we in for round two later,there is another cell firing up SE of Lincoln as well as them further south and a final note,there has been some excellent pics/video and media again today,we are mini tornado valley it seems,what a turnaround from the last couple of months and who would of thought of all this convective weather on our doorstep,it's crazy,i do feel sorry for the SE though and i hope that you all will get your turn, me,i am replenished that i have witnessed a good storm and me too is a happy bunny.