Allseasons-Si

It is and isn't,it partially breaks off the Icelandic one here circled. but like you say,the main Icelandic one earlier in the run doesn't drop,i have an headache

It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west. 18z v's 12z

I know,it's crazy is knocker on vacation in America at the gfs control center with his red crayons lol sorry knocker model watching in the morning is going to be crazy i tell ya.

Nope,at 90. i said last night that i would give it at 72 then crunch time.

Is it cloudier where you are Paul?

Put your telescope away Zak

Hi that storm isn't heading for east Anglia as the storm is pulling away to the east towards Holland/Belgium border.

A nice sunset shower to my SW earlier tomorrow looks even better than today's,so we are creeping up slightly with the potential,and still looking good for later next week/weekend(as it stands)

And at 120 i wonder if that tropical storm in the GoM is creating havoc with the models?

Sorry John,you are right,i am not still in winter mode,i promise. i will edit.

The latest from cpc is still looking good here folks and is pretty much the same as last evening's but a slight difference with the trough placement,it is further SW instead of south of the UK so that in turn will be warmer and dryer but would still have the threat of some imports in terms of storm potential a look at the De-built ecm ens(based in Holland),i use these to determine if we get a warm continental flow or not temps,dew points and as you can see that there is quiet a few of those members going for 30c with dew points going on for 15+ so looking above,the extended is still looking rosy,with a chance of thunderstorms?️

Erm,it ain't bad at all.. the ECM ens 850's and pressure. my local and London although there is a marked pressure drop esp London probably due to the trough over the south of the UK. Edit:snap MATT

ECM mean at 120 going for the trough to drop down the UK. but looking like an improvement after that

About 20:45>. in 15 mins aprox.

Everyone has there different preferences to the weather but i am with you on this one either way it all looks like becoming warmer after mid-late next week anyway once we get this low sinking out of the way,but that's a long way away so lets concentrate on the first hurdle first.

The gefs ens are still a good set from this time next week and into the following weekend... I wonder if we would get more amplification in the Atlantic in future runs to send this Icelandic low further west down the west side of the UK? that would be a good idea to get some warmth in quicker from the south,hmmm!

I think i know what the issue is and here at 96 hrs from both the GFS and UKMO you can see why,i have put the NH view on so that you can see it better the gfs hardly has ridging between systems and that one off Newfoundland just barrels through phasing with the one in front(Iceland one),where as the UKMO has more ridging/amplification in between the two forcing the Iceland low SE and not phasing with the Newfoundland one that's my take on it,feel free to comment if i am wrong! Edit: Shaky has just put what i put,great minds Edit 2:where is Nick Sussex

Or get the brolly and the BBQ cover ready if the UKMO is right this is going to go down to 72 hrs like THAT failed ECM easterly lets see what shenanigans the ECM comes up with later but i feel that this is not going to be solved today or tomorrow.

GFS at 120!!! scratches head with the UKMO,.com

Yep,probably going off this mornings run. sorry,edit:is MOGREPS UKMO or is it a different model?

Lightning to my NE now.

got this beauty to my east.

The Icon is still not budging to the UKMO. here at 114 v's the 120 from UKMO this morning.

It's funny how the cam picks up a scratching/static noise a couple of seconds before the lightning strike. sc.mp4

Lightning with sound Aci Trezza,Italy Live Cam Aci Trezza - Cyclopean Isles WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Aci Trezza, panoramic view of Cyclops's cliffs