Allseasons-Si

Quiet right Blue a nowcast situation is always favoured when what/how much falls from the sky on the day.

I don't mind that,it's better than a snow to rain event as i think everyone would agree,but thanks anyway

Yes some snow for most of the country on tue's

Right!!! lets have a look at some charts to see where we might be going at day ten+ the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day anomoly charts show an upper westerly flow into the uk(green lines) but show slp systems s of uk with +ve height's to our north,to me this shows lp systems tracking under the block to our north and still on the cool side of the pjf(polar jet front),all subject to change but this is what i am ilustrating now what could happen the AO(Arctic Oscillation) still forcasted to trend neg into -4 but will it uptick like that afterwards?,stay tuned the eps/gefs at day ten not too dissimilar to the cpc^ day 16 from gefs signals a retrogression west into Greenland in the shorter term(this week),there are plenty of snow opertunities for just about everyone,be it N,S,E,or W,not to mention the SW,NW,NE,SE and places could see upto three feet of snow and this maybe your garden path come the end of the week

I am not having a dig at you Froze but i thought that i would bring TEIT'S post up just to illustrate that we cannot trust the models that far out and has been said numerous times in here let's see what happens to tue/thu's events first,that's as far as i would go

Packman's going to eat all the snow in the SE

Hit the post before i posted soz.

I know it's late but here is a presie for ya,blocking at high lats mean -AO Forecasted record braking AO at that this season something to ponder on as we move into Feb.

Great model outputs today and good to here that some of you have had snow for me though i will have to keep these on my sledge until DAY 10 latest on the cpc 8-14 has been rock solid on the pattern over the last few days with trough into Europe with height's into Greenland and gaining is that massive Alaskan ridge into the pole too,also height's showing in Scandi now and could be a pecurser as to an easterly down the line AO still showing a tanking,not surprised with all the height's into the pole when will i take my wheels off my sledge! i will let you know

Lets see if they trend colder over the next few runs but i will take them over mild dross that half of this winter has produced,onwards and upwards we hope.

They look ok to me Feb,-5 mean has been consistant for some time now ,so nothing has changed.

They are NW on them charts Matt.

Latest fax charts from 36hrs shows plenty of troughs after the cold front passes through.

Must be too windy from there winter storm?️

here you go

I am starting to see that arctic rabbit again on the latest=

That looks cold...

Yep,not bad a few frames later the south coast.

The ecm looks cold to me from 168 maybe even a dumping in the SW at day ten with that little low but subject to change of cause.

have you lost your decipherous tongue TI

Maybe THAT cherry will come to bite us next

You where saying!!! give the model a chance first before making a prediction.

I think those nesh men over there are going to need one of these ...and on a more serious note,ok we missed the first bite at the cherry and we loose the easterly next week but this protracted northerly looks more realistic in terms of getting those height's hopefully up into Greenland. cpc days 6-10/8-14 and eps at day ten http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=264 AO still looks to tank into neg prob due to the downwelling of the wind reversal from strat to trop as i mentioned the other day but i would like to see the NAO do the same ecm/gefs means look good at day 10 to me we may have to suffer a slightly milder blip but the outlook looks cold after that.

Yes wasn't expecting snow here this evening,i guess evaperative cooling played a part in the heavier burst's was surprised,

Yes that cought me out,was thinking that was it tonight altough ppn dying out as it reaches here,what's with all that ppn over west Wales,was that forecasted?