Allseasons-Si

And as we keep on seeing troughs dropping NW>SE into Europe,then the back door will open up later to NE/E winds, i don't want to jinx it but that is what i think at the moment.

I was just musing over this earlier,a less vigorous trough would mean less mixing out of the cold air,i would think more of a trough diruption would play out nearer the time,maybe it was thinking about a gfs style run lol.

That's on an ice platteau and always shows higher heights cos of this need them orange and reds to pump up there.

The ecm mean geopotential height anomoly looks nice too and matches the cpc days 8-14 with a huge alaskan ridge into the pole and link up with the Atlantic ridge,neg -NAO/AO signal there De-built temps flatlining around 0c from 22nd/23rd good upgrades today,and as Jim bowen would say... super!,smashing!,great!

And the wind direction is getting stronger too if you like a continental feed yesterdays v todays

All is well that ends well. there is still plenty of time left this winter night.

I meant to say in it's short range,re the slider.

I meant in the short range.

At least it is showing signs of the azores migrating west.

Is the gfs wrong!!! it has been consistant with its modeling too we cannot discount it if it is not showing what we want re:- cold and snow lets leave the model slashing until the morning as there is no point in getting worked up over it.

I guess we have been unlucky the previous years,surely we are due one.

Wouldn't warmer sst's produce more convection if the 850's/tm2's are low enough,seems possible?

The signal has been there over the past week or so in Fl for colder charts to show,then to be dropped,it always happens,then to be picked up closer the time(near term upgrades),there will always be chopping and changing from one day to another that always happens and never all the big three show consistancy even out past 96hrs esp when it comes to pin pointing trough disruption,remember that ecm easterly!,i think it was 72 hrs away and it was a no go anyway looking at some of the latest stuff just in and i like the look of the 8-14 day cpc anomoly,a true arctic high there with pos link up from the atlantic high,trough dropping down into Europe with pos easterlies to follow latest NAO/AO the NAO still on neutral territory whereas the AO shows a dip into neg territory with three members gunning for -5 Dutch ecm ens the temps are cold and the wind direction has progressed over the last few days with regards to an easterly element to them a final note to visiters new or old that have just come on here or have just logged in.look at all the posts from today on previous pages cos there is some very good info for newbies and the like,i wish that i have the knowledge of some people on here but i don't,probably due to more commitments i suppose

As been posted already that day 10 ecm mean,that is a cracking mean and prob one of the best yet this season,the ens flatlining @-5 to the end,lovely stuff

Evening fellow coldies i would just like to remind folk not to take every single model run as gospel,there will be ups and downs as we tick down to t0,nothing has changed in the overall macroscale pattern(bigger picture) and we will not know the final outcome until we get near to t0(the IMBY micro scenario),this is what model output discussion is all about finding trends and signals as well as telleconnections,mjo,glaam,gwo etc + the SSW that is downwelling as we speak,this has been messaged across this forum for yonks now,you know that,we are in a great position right now and we have to be patient a look at the means from the ecm and gefs show consistancy from both at day ten and they look decent to me with ridging in the atlantic and trough to our S/SE this evenings latest from cpc 8-14 day outlook is consistant from prev days too so all looking good from where i am sat,also the eps at day ten enjoy the ride folks,there could by acoming our way just to add,as anyone seen the cfs 12z run 1 month,gobsmackingly good http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=-6&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

You are not wrong there Nick,so fickle as with shortwaves at such a short timeframe,i think Dec 2017 was a headache of a slider to forecast,but some did get pasted a headache to forecast with sliders/shortwaves in the mix coming up too i would suspect.

Slider snow gate i would hope for nice to here from you again Nick the models(medium to long range anayway)have been showing sliders for the last few days with increment height's to our NW/N/NE forcing them on a tradjectory NW>SE,to me this has a bigger margine for error and we could see several bowts of snow events down the line,i see no west to east movement within systems,this place is buzzing at the moment and i am enjoying it too,the parcel is the fun getting it down to t0 and i hope the parcel opens with snow in it.

Yes looking good that,just need the op and control(party poopers) to join the party 18th> and that mean would be colder,still below -5 is good enough but i want colder it's irrelivant as there is scatter before the 18th anyway,i hope it becomes clearer/cleaner cut to cold in the morning.

And the final frame suggestive of that i just mentioned ^

Lets just hope it's not been on the poppy cracking chart from the parra/FV3. Edit:if this was to come off,that wouldn't be a sinking high and would produce a Scandi ridge with easterlies or northeasterlies and would match the week two>three ec46.

I have just joined the party and a few words to sum up above:- =46 days of cold and snow and then some,fantastic update that and as GP mentioned,the blocks are in the right place and scream's NE/E winds if these charts come to surpass then we are going to need a bigger boat,i mean sledge

Well,i am getting a little wee exited as the upgrades on upgrades keep on coming in,some fabulous outputs/models and posts today and it's great to see this thread getting along just nicely..for once now to add to some exellent posts/outputs today just to ramp it up a bit more:- the latest from cpc 8-14 day 500mb outlook still shows a link up of heights in the atlantic with the arctic high and trough into Scandi including the uk now so the pattern (forecasted) to show the ridge further west in the atlantic to previous,we don't want it to back further west or we will run the risk of a west based -NAO again some nice model output this evening and here is the 18z gfs 500 + geo height anomoly of which is a perfect evolution to what we want to tick down to t0 the control is another nice run too but that's as far west as we would like it,again further west and we run the risk of west based -NAO and the trough would fling milder air from it's eastern flank from the south Gefs ens shows ridge west.trough east,that's not a bad mean at 384 hrs is it. for my local(i am not imby)as there is cold sets further south too,that is cold with just a few stragglers getting above the 0c line the black circles i want to see upgrades from and the left chart is for the wind direction and will be looking into this in the next few days,the right chart is the snow spikes,there is quiet a few there with some showing upto 8cm's ok all the above are well into FL but we are looking for trends and the trends are going the right way

The 18z going for something similar at just 300 hrs not 500+ lol

Likewise lets get this stagnent pattern shifted out of the way and a pattern reset,BTW didn't the Meto text say some unsettled windy weather then colder later,i will take that.