[Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread]

As a bit of a newbee why would only be rain in scunny with the odd flake?

Hi linkstim,less elevation and also you are closer to the north sea which is still relativley warm 3c-4c.

[Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread]

light snow flakes falling here at the mo

haha!, just looked at the lamp post,same here and floating like a feather

[Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread]

anyone know any good weather radar sites, willitrain take ages to update.

here you baz

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

hope that helps

Si

ps.keeping my eye on that ppn encroaching this way.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Heights building to the north quite nicely, as Chiono said the low could undercut..

I was just about to say this but you beat me to it P.

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

SHORTWAVE drama off the continent at t135,nick s where r u,this shortwave could be a good'n.

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Look at the -10 clinging to the SE 111HRS

.

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

More CAA avection on that low in iceland at 84hrs,looking good.

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

That low is deeper in NE us on the 18z 60hrs,would this shift the icelandic low further east though and stopping hights rising.

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

When forecasting snow it is sometimes best to do now casting as things can change very quickly. 24hrs is usually the limit when accuratly looking for snow with snow showers being best observed via a radar. That is where the real fun and excitement lies in my book.

hi GSL,

maybe you have posted a off topic post there but is there any free snow radar maps around as this whould truly help people when looking for snow,regards,sorry for the off topic

on topic,cma+other medeocre models(sorry for spelling) following the trend to cold,that's most of the 12z against the gfs,come on 18z.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

As i said in my previous post, a less mild spell followed by a reload towards the end of the month seems a quite plausible scenario. I wouldn't expect any prolonged less mild spell however

sorry mark,but don't you meen less cold spell

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Don't know if this chart off meteox has ever been posted on here but how reliable is it,(orange being the wintry ppn)

http://www.meteox.co...oop.aspx?type=1

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Sorry for the downtime, a corruption on the database crashed the servers out..

no worries paul,good to be back

gfs 18z still going stong

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

best set of long ensembles of the winter-

S

yes steve also plenty of snow spikes on there too in in short to mid range(on the bottom right chart for the new members that don't understand).

Si

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Sorry mods about that vid,the wrong thread

back to the model thread

mcweather posted this earlier of the 81 big freeze

does anyone know what timeframe this was shown before it actually happened cos ecm looks alot like it at 168hrs

Si

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

WTF, I dont know what to say.

BIG LOL!!!

seriously,absolutley cracking 12z runs from the big guns

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Look at that ridge in the atlantic pumping northwards into greenland at 180hrs to coinside with that low to the eastern side of greenland,who's to say that low will head on a colishion course,uk anyone.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Some interesting goings on around T132hrs on this run.

Hi matty,are you ref to that short wave south of the block in scandi,it looks more better orientated to me for that westerly push to the uk.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

and at 168hrs the -10 isothern encroaching the east of the country

/

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

Amazing ECM had a quick evolution

Now GFS looks like it might do it faster

114 looking decent

also not much of a shortwave/trough left in the atlantic.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

Well the 18z is so diferent even at 78hrs,

1,more vertical WAA from the trough in the atlantic

2,a stronger ridge biulding(alltough not much)

and 3,whats happened to the dartboard greenland HP that was on the 12z,on the 18z it's very flabby,don't know if this is a good thing though.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

100% more runs....

I have got to express more concern than normal- every winter we get the PV lobe drop into europe & we get associated runs advecting it all west to the UK.. they rarely arrive.

Every winter we get runs with the prescribed WAA north like the ECM - they rarely arrive...

I would say dont get excited just yet- however the warming event will support this outcome it still may not be the deal sealer...

S

I’ve been watching the models for 8 or 9 years now and I’ve seen a few runs like this, and although I hate to throw a damp squib into the party room I’ve never seen one verify. 2010 the best but even that was not as good as some of the model projections leading up to it.

thank's guys

sorry for the belated reply(s),had to do tea and nip out for some seasonal drinks lol,

but just to say,isn't this a great evolution unfolding at the moment,and with the strat on our side it's looking a bit more plausable

Si

edit:not getting my hopes up yet though as things can go t*t's up,as did begining of december.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?05-0

OK rewind the ECM & look west, If people are really keen on a big cold spell the WAA on this chart will trump an other-

Allign it with nov 2010-

http://modeles.meteo...0-11-21-0-0.png

with that scenario you can almost ignore everything else - if that lands the rest will land perfectly...

ECM was the best model at picking that up in the long range before...

S

nice one steve,do you think it will verify like that or do we need more runs.

cheers

Si

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

As it stands its ECM UKMO v GFS

don't forget the jma too CS .

Edit:oh and the BOM too.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

yes earlier i posted all the model outputs from the 6z and the reload im sure was on the gfs but has dropped that idear tonight.

but the ecm has stuck to its guns will it continue either way colder weather on the way how cold well lets wait until it comes into the t96.

yes rollercoaster,gfs having a big wobble on the 12z,i await the 18z to see if it comes onboard again,gfs on it's own at the moment.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

WOW! cracking ecm 12z,reload from the NE anyone.