mattyk1985
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Posts posted by mattyk1985
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Decent cape and LI, fairly high dew points, but they all seem to be dying on the way up to here, no decent towers anymore. Any ideas whats happening?
Even a shower would be nice! lol
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Everything is dying before it reaches here. Its terrible for storms here now.
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I can assure you that this part of Lincolnshire doesnt get that many thunderstorms or that much in the way of snow. Southern Lincolnshire on the other hand...
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Not had much from this Rain Event thus far
Have the Met Office over hyped it with the areas covered with the Amber Warning they have given
I am in supposedly bang in the middle of the Amber Waring and must say we have had hardly nothing in rainfall totals so far, just the odd heavy burst around 8.30ish this morning. And looking at the Rain Today radar there is not much more to come.
Or is this system supposed to be pepping up as the day goes on, or arc back on itself
I was thinking the same, its only rained here for a couple of hours. Raining again now but mostly light.
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Had 9.6mm of rain between 6 and about 8:30 and thats it, stuck in a dry patch between 2 areas of heavy rain.
not fair lol -
Looks to me on the radar that things from Belgium are beginning to cross the N Sea already!
Yeah see what you mean, if it is its a lot earlier tan predicted by the models
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Nothing here today, any cells that left EA seemed to rapidly die out as they got here, but looking at the charts there isnt much cape around here today and quite alot of CIN(which I think has a negative effect?) It has really cooled down here in the last 2 hours (-1.5C/hr).
Eyes on tomorrow don't think there will be a lot in the way of thundery activity but some pretty intense rainfall though.
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The cells are just completely falling apart as they get close to this area, Im guessing theres a cap or not enough cape.
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Ah yes, sorry! Seems it could be wherever you want it, depending on the model you use! Somone's going to get wet.......
Its all going to be very interesting come tomorrow. I kind of hoping we bear the brunt up here apart from the flooding bit.
Back to today I can't really see anything happening here today. At least its a nice warm sunny day though.
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does the amount of rainfall warrant a red warning from the met office?
Once they are sure on where its going, i would have thought it would warrant a red warning as this will cause flooding.
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Nice and sunny here with a few clouds starting to build now, so its looking good at the minute.
Regarding tomorrows monsoon is that likely to change areas again? As a few models had been suggesting it was pretty much affecting Lincs and into Yorkshire and up to the NW, and now its a lot further South?
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Yes quite a turn around on the 18z, still showing good potential for more northern areas throughout Thursday for some decent convection kicking off.
Yeah thats true, will have to make do with a daytime storm :-)
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Hey Matty, which model are we talking about here the NMM and what is the let down?
The overnight/early morning heavy ppn is pretty much now staying out in the sea compared to the 12z run which showed a potential MCS.
The NMM
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Its out and looks to have gone the same way as the GFS. A letdown lol
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Why is every single post I make getting removed??
Re tomorrow mornings potential "MCS" I'm waiting for the 18z model, if it looks good i'll set the alarm clock, if it don't look good, time to give some head to that pillow.
Maybe its your website name?
Regarding the mornings potential im doing the same.
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Thunder here :-)
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Very warm here too, very sticky feeling. Lots of impressive towers around but not alot in the way of precipitation on radar for here.
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Heavy shower here, no thunder though but rainfall is very heavy at 25.2mm/hr
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Yeah that looks bright red on the radar. Got a few potent looking clouds down the other end of lincs too
you could be in for some at your end later i reckon.I'm hoping you're right mate, only had pretty much 1 overhead storm this year :-( I need more!
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Lightning detected to the west of Lincoln. Suns come out here so who knows? Still not feeling that confident.
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Can't see there been any thunder here today, the cloud cover is ridiculous haven't seen the sun all day!
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Still chance for it to upgrade the next few days though.
There is still extensive cloudcover here things are very dull, so i'm not confident about today at the minute.
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With rain forecast for most of the day round here, I can't see convection getting going. I hope i'm wrong.
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Looking at the latest NMM there is plenty of MLcape across the Eastern side of UK Wednesday night into Thursday. So theres a chance things may rumble on into the night. Not sure there will be much in the way of a trigger though.
NMM is also suggesting excessive rainfall for parts of Lincolnshire and the North with around 50mm in places.
not fair lol
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 7th July 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Tomorrow is looking good, so after tomorrow, I hope I am no longer storm starved. But then again you can never have too many!