mattyk1985
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Posts posted by mattyk1985
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I tend to look at CAPE/LI to get a measure of the ability of air to rise and how quickly. You also need moisture for clouds to form - may be wrong here but dewpoint gives a good idea of this. And of course you need a trigger, which can be a number of things - front, trough, wind convergence, orographic lift, cold air moving over the top of warmer air etc.
For more severe/organised storms there needs to be a way of the updrafts and downdrafts being separated (so parameters such as speed and directional shear) otherwise a storm will kill itself off within around half an hour.
Although a little more complicated, the skew-t diagrams are a good thing to look at as you can plot temperature and dewpoint and derive from that the approximate height that the air will condense to form clouds and at what height these parcels will stop rising for the cloud top height. The higher the clouds can rise then the better the chance of a thunderstorm.
There are some great guides on this site to learn from, i am still learning now
Its them skew-t diagrams that I can't get my head around.
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To be fair though after last Thursdays affair the Metoffice didn't instill confidence in their thunderstorm forecasting.
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I kid you not, I swear there were around 100,000 that day in the whole of the UK ( i might be wrong) but i reckon i remember hearing it on the news ! And yep, it was definitely the BEST one i've ever witnessed. I hope these ones forecast are better !!
Don't think theyll be that amazing this week. The potential is there but doesnt look like there will be anything severe. I think we'll be waiting a while yet for another beast like that.
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God, that storm was the most epic one ive seen in the UK ever. 31 AUG 2005 will never be forgotten. Strikes every 2-3 seconds, with anvil top lightning + crawlers to forks striking 100M away !! struck S lincs at around 10pm and lasted until like 1am.
Best storm Ive ever seen, hoping for something like it this year. I'm just curious how many lightning strikes were detected that day lol.
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I remember a real nasty T-Storm hitting here in 05. Did the one you are talking about hit Swindon?
No idea, This one started around 6pm ish(I think) and it went on overnight. So I'm guessing it was a pretty large storm so its possible.
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These are the charts I found for that date.
500hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00120050831.gif
850hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00220050831.gif
I dont know where you can find archived CAPE charts or lightning but would love to know.
Edit: This was midnight 1st September 05.
Thanks alot for that. That storm is one of the best I can remember witnessing and the last decent storm we've had round here.
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Liking the charts from the latest runs, looking at it I think most will at least hear thunder this week.
I am hoping someone could help me, I remember seeing a beast of a storm here on 31/08/05 with constant lightning and it pretty much went on all night, Im just wondering if anyone could find me or tell me where to locate, some charts etc such as cape and lightning detection for that day.
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A dissappointing day here, with the storms just skirting passed us, heard some thunder but lightning was not very visable, no strong rain or hail either, wish I had got the car out but looking at the size of the hail falling near Nottingham I thought it best not to.
Hope everyone enjoyed their storms today and managed to stay safe.
Still muggy as hell though!
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According to GFS and NMM we have cape of over 1,000kg/j the suns out and nothing really popping up on radar, fingers crossed for something but I highly doubt it.
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Looking at the radar cells are fireing just to the north of manchester in a line all the way up to newcastle. Isnt that where it is?
Thats what I thought, but I thought it was a bit small, thought it would be more south aswell.
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The cold front seems to be a hell of alot slower than forecast.
I dont even know where it is? Thought cells would be popping up all over the front.
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i am wanting to know too...........
I want to know too, but on radar it looks pretty dead with nothing pretty much from us South. So I doubt it, think that is it for today.
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Anyone know where the fornt is currently, Ive tried have a look myself but to be honest I dont have a clue, I hope there is still some instability around when it passes through here.
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hello all, im new to this forum, but have been lurking around for a while. Was extremily excited about todays prospects, esp given that im in one of the areas expecting some storms.
Was just wondering if there will be anything a bit later for my area, as ive seen nothing at all, (for quite some time
) ive took some amazing pics of the sky but had abso nothing of a thundery or even wet nature here, just horribly humid and sticky. many thanks in advance
(peterborough)
Thats what I want to know as the storms round here have sort of skirted around me. Im wondering when the Cold front passes through and will it set off storms again.
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Wheres that Cold front at? Just a storm passing to the west of here. Just wondering is that is for the day?
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have you seen this Hook!
Just about to mention that, blimey that looks strong! That cell heading my way hope it keeps its intesity.
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When thats cold front coming through Lincolnshire?
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Its very cloudy here today, but mostly medium level clouds, will that scupper our chances?
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We will catch this thing in Grimsby?. Looks very impressive on radar. Hope everyone in it is enjoying it!
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back on topic?
Thats not really on topic or imformative really?
Anyways, going dark again here, raining in the Town but on the outskirts where I am, remaining dry again!
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The metoffice had forecast dry conditions and cloud for here all day, but from pretty much 6am(I was up early for the torch lol) Its been pretty sunny, we've even had the odd rumble and some very heavy ppn. So im hoping they are wrong again tomorrow.
Sure I just heard another rumble unless Im going mad.
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Couple of rumbles here, skies quite dark too.
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How come the TT index is so low? I know its not that important but thought it would be a lot higher Wednesday and Thursday.
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How early? Guessing that would be a disaster/
) ive took some amazing pics of the sky but had abso nothing of a thundery or even wet nature here, just horribly humid and sticky. 
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by mattyk1985
Just to check Ive done it right does the skew-t for Grimsby at 18:00 Wednesday show cloud tops reaching 42,000ft? If it right that would be good for hail and thunder.