Deluxe
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Posts posted by Deluxe
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The only thing that worries me about the upcoming event is how much cloud there will be tomorrow. It would be awful if the risk was heavily diminished because of cloudy detritusy rubbish. Apart from that, it's all good!!
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Upgrades...downgrades...sidewaysgrades...westward shifts...eastward shifts...
To hell with this...I for one am giving this part of the forum a swerve for the next 24 hours...no radar watching...no forecast watching. I'm going to go the old fashioned way about this event/non-event. If anything happens for me it will come without prior knowledge...and will be more enjoyable as a result.
If nothing happens..the NSC page will get a battering of posts.
Good luck with that
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Harry are your eyes spinning round and round?
Too many sources!
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ooh, harsh!!
You saw lots of wildlife anyway (including me) Very true
Didn't get a photo though, you were too quick -
that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'
I blame Norfolk Sheep for jinxing my stormchase/wildlife trip to Wicken Fen last year
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Still looks promising up here. BBC graphics showed an intense thundery band starting in the SW and tracking north-eastwards through Thursday, affecting many areas of England, except the south-east where instead thundery showers are expected to develop.
I think Carol's forecast won't be too far off the mark
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I'm sure it'll be a lot of fun in here tomorrow morning. Eek!
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I so was going to have my username as Conway Twitty on Lewis' new forum
Surprised at the GFS upgrade to be honest, I think there will be a slight eastward shift again on the evening models, but not much.
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Cloud cover has ruined it for the most part. Likely to be a thundery rain event .. again.
Whoops I blinked! Has the event happened?
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It looks to me as though the chances have been decreasing all the while. The rain intensity on the GFS op runs have been getting less and less for Thursday. The CAPE values have been toned down at least on GFS
Always happens with GFS. We'll be nowcasting this event on the day. Of course there is a chance it could turn out to be a damp squib for everyone, however I'm not too worried with the GFS downgrades (unless the CAPE disappears entirely!)
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I remember El Gordo very well as I had booked the day off work and got to see.... nothing. And then the next day it all went bang lol. Was disappointed then but can actually look back and laugh now.
Ah that sounds familiar. I went on a storm chase and positioned myself around the Wicken Fen area - complete bust that day, and the next day (when I was back home) was very stormy in the south east - Wicken Fen would've been a good place to be, too. Probably was the El Gordo event
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Hi guys, I just updated my severe weather summary
Nice summary Lewis, although I would have taken the storm risk closer to the Scottish border (eastern side)
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Certainly a possibility of snow above 700m. There has been several days with snow falling and even a dusting that settled during June so far in the Highlands.
Don't forget the mini-plume and above average temps before the start of July! Good agreement on above average temps and potential of thunderstorms for most of England. Something the coldies have decided to ignore
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Further to my opening post on the last page, the grey skies have cleared somewhat to allow a few brighter spells, although no proper sun. Nick's warning area a little too far north for here but I'll keep my fingers crossed for a surprise
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Yes plenty of rain around at the moment, under very grey, leaden skies. It's always difficult to see convective activity occuring when conditions are like this, but pretty much all the main models/charts show good potential - I just hope we can tap into it
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I drove through the Leeds storm on the way back from Chester - didn't see any lightning but that wasn't surprising as the rain and surface spray was just insane on the motorways - I mean absolutely awesome! It went as black as night as well - really brilliant stuff to drive through. I've had a tiring week but that really got my attention!
I'm back up in Hartlepool now and keeping my fingers crossed it tracks unscathed up here in the next few hours. A late evening/night storm would be great!
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Plenty of heavy convective precipitation running from NW England eastwards. Nothing electrical though, I guess it wasn't to be today
We're under a moderate shower at the moment. It looks nice and the sun keeps coming out, too! -
I wouldn't mind another storm
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Well I'm out of the no storms club this year
First thunderstorm in roughly a year and it didn't disappoint! We could hear it on the reserve for quite some time before it got close. Very impressive straight line winds
The rain was nothing special although I feel we didn't get a direct hit. Plenty of good thunder though - quite frequent at times - occasionally 3-4 lighting strikes per minute at it's peak. Some cracking cg's, too. That'll tide me over until next year!
(Storm occurred roughly around 2:30-3pm ish) -
My instinct tells me this pattern can become entrenched during June, how long for is anyones guess. The MO 15-30
dayer seems to indicate that the unsettled cloudy and wet regime may well last until 29th June, with the worst of the
unsettled gloomy and wet weather in the south. There was a lot of chatter on here a short while back about a hot june
the ensembles would indicate a flow generally west or north westerly between the rain bands.
England the cold man of Europe.. 7oC in Heavy rain could see Sleet fall over higher elevations as the cold air aloft is dragged down to surface levels..
If those temps verify we would see over a 20oC drop in temps in 7 days.. Remarkable !
Sunday looks dreadful for southern areas, I get that. I will continue to state however that the temps on that GFS chart are comfortably undercooked, even under cloud and heavy rain
I won't say anymore. As for the rest of June - it's anyone's guess. We could quite easily see another hot spell in mid-June - it's probably just as likely as a washout spell of weather during the same period. I'll stay optimistic thanks -
UKMO paints a fairly unsettled picture as next week begins
Well it looks OK up until Tuesday so I'm happy (going camping
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Boring!
LOL Absolutely insane photos! Very jealous, as ever. Keep 'em coming - wishing you luck for the rest of the tour (s) -
Contrary to opinions on here I've really enjoyed the recent warm spell, and the nature of my job means I have spent plenty of time outside working, and it has felt bl00dy gorgeous at times, despite a rather keen wind occasionally
A good storm will round it off nicely, but expectations are low, for good reason -
Something of better prospect for the B/H weekend on both the 12Z ECM & GFS. Coolest weather reserved for the North east and the
best of any brighter weather now in the SW and Southern Ireland. A similar pattern Sun thru Tues with Slack winds North or N Easterlies.
should mean Bright sunny dawns after following cold nights with cumulus building up and flattening out to shut out the sunshine until supper
time when the clouds thins and melts away at sunset. I would suggest average or just below average temps for the time of year around
the ranging from 10 or 11oC in the East to 13oC or 14oC in central and southern parts..
I would take those temperature charts with a hefty handful of salt! Also you're not suggesting those temperatures, you're reading off what the GFS says, which at this stage looks to be -3-4c off the mark. A max of 13-14c in central and southern areas is complete nonsense IMO. Before someone suggests it, yes I do enjoy the warmth, and I'm not in denial over the cooler spell coming up, however I'm not the only one on here who knows those maximums are too low - it's a GFS habit.
You saw lots of wildlife anyway (including me) 
We're under a moderate shower at the moment. It looks nice and the sun keeps coming out, too! 
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Polar Thole
I concur with the thoughts on this page - it really is very oppressive out there! A reasonable amount of blue sky currently, and some good warm sunny spells coming through with light winds. Now all we need is a storm, then I'll be dancing a happy and cocky jig!