Deluxe
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Posts posted by Deluxe
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Thanks but unfortunatley this is not the one. There was/is data that showed lightning by month from all the way back to the 90s prehaps earlier.
Humid and sunny here not a wiff of a storm.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/
Select 'lightning strikes', the month & year that you want, then the map type is 'actual'
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24c here according to my desktop widget. Sounds roughly right - it is lovely out there!
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Lovely clear skies here
I'm wondering if we are in a prime location at all this week - if not it looks like a gradual benign cool down here -
No knife edge there. Cloudy.. Stratocumulus. North East breeze 13 - 15oC would be a safe bet.. Clearing skies at night could lead to a grass
frost in prone areas.. Some heavy showers likely in the east, and central and SE parts.. A good 25oF colder than this weeked quite likely !!
13-15c is underdoing it a little I feel - remember how strong the sun is and what we've just had. I think it'll feel chilly in the wind but 16-18c is more likely, with some sheltered spots hitting 20c
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Yes please - i'll chuck you a fiver for fuel
Count me in! I'll give you
towards fuel. I'll make sure it's a particularly shiny example, too -
The ECM mean may have removed the plume but it still paints a fairly dry picture if not overly warm. Still decent weather for Bank Holiday outdoor events.
True dat
Disappointing outlook as far as heat is concerned, but it'll feel more than pleasant in the sun. Wouldn't take much of a shift to put us back in the warm/very warm category, although we are getting ever closer and we have been moving away from the heat scenario. -
ECM ensemble mean is much closer to other models with HP centred over Britain next weekend
Essan has powers the rest of us can only dream of
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Lovely GFS again high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future
http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm
Good heavens when the high pressure re-establishes itself it just doesn't move for the entire run!
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What's so strange about it?
That you're so adamant we won't see 30C anytime soon. I think 30C is up for grabs next weekend
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We could get 45°C in London if we could get the right setup. lol
But I just don't see it happening next week. Warmth? You could say that slightly above average temps is warm compared to what we've seen prior to this weeks weather. But i just don't see the models pushing us beyond 30°C
Strange post if you ask me!
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It is the 18z that is known as the pub run.
The 6z has become slightly less reliable, but it is always best to stick with one run and see how it changes day to day.
Whoops, well count me embarrassed! I honestly thought it was the 06z! You learn something new every day...
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I read a few months ago that the 6z had the lowest verification stats of the four runs.
Well I do know the 06z is sometimes referred to as the pub run for the very reason you state, but it will be correct sometimes!
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What are people's thoughts regarding GFS 06z? Worse than ECM and Met Office charts in the mid-term, and way off the mark with regards to the 18z and 00z runs. Is it on to something, or is it likely to be an outlier? I'm inclined to think the latter, but that might be my preference for a high pressure dominated summer clouding my thoughts!
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Sounds like a brilliant chase. I'll watch the videos later when I'm not on my work internet
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Good summary of the short-term outlook TWS. Still rather uncertain what happens afterwards, but as others have said the likelihood of more unsettled conditions in the S and SW with northern areas staying mostly fine and dry looks the favoured option at present, with temperatures gradually returning to average, maybe a notch above
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A strange evolution from ECM! Doubting it to be honest, and not just because it isn't what we want. It does seem like it is on its own with that evolution though
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A rather testing and tiresome set of model runs tonight then. Personally I get very bored very quickly under HP scenarios such as shown on GFS today.
Well we can't all love warm and dry weather, I can understand how it can get a bit samey after a while, but with week after week of unrelenting cold and rain behind us, I'm sure the majority on here love the GFS 12z with a capital L! In this case, change is good
I would love a few thundery breakdowns scattered around amongst all this high pressure though (after all the bank holidays and Olympic torch relays of course!)
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Fantastic 12z GFS so far for people seeking settled weather.
Low pressure centered way out West, perhaps with just Ireland seeing the effects of this later in the week.
Unlike the 6z the pressure belt to the South around T+125 is much higher, resulting in this current warm spell being prolonged. Winds staying light too, with a slightly more Eastern orientation of winds as opposed to the 06z, especially in the latter frames.
Winds easing much more too, meaning even the Eastern coastal strip will see some lovely sunshine, aided by light winds out in the North Sea also.
With that low sitting way out West, the 12z tries to introduce the idea of the high sinking Southwards towards the UK, as opposed to retreating Eastwards as per the 06z.
A long way off, but should this run have some decent agreement from the ensembles, and the trend continue to be there for the high to sink Southwards, then we could be in for a beautiful weekend.
I guess we'll have to look out for an extension of the above average temps on the ensembles later. Good signs!
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I think 'cold' is a slight overstatement, GFS keeps things fairly warm into next week. Certainly no return to the kind of conditions we've had over the last few weeks.
True, the ensembles show temperatures returning to about average after above-average values for most this week.
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hmmmm. The ECM ensemble mean from T+ 168 is rather different from the operational in what happens to the trough.
What does that mean, exactly?! is the operational likely to be nearer the mark in these situations or is the mean a better guide?
Neither, the troughing is causing the uncertainty. More runs needed!
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It's looking likely to be only a blip of average temps/weather for the time of year, before things start to become cool/cold and unsettled with rain in the South and brisk N/E winds by the end of the week.
I reckon it is very uncertain what will happen after the weekend. We are struggling to gauge cloud amounts this week with contrasts between media forecasts and what the models are showing, so although I expect showers in the south and stronger easterlies by the week's end, I think we will see a wide range of outlooks after t+144 especially.
Also apologies for inadvertently setting off a lively discussion during the previous few pages! Glad it has been sorted
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Good morning. Indeed it is cloudy here and cool with a light breeze from the north. Keeping my fingers crossed that we get a couple of sunnier days this week!
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It's certainly possible for this sort of pattern to be followed by 6-8 weeks of generally anticyclonic weather, but I don't think there is a strong relationship- it all depends on how the synoptics subsequently pan out. Btw July 1995 was not a particularly anticyclonic month despite its hot dry sunny tendency (the emphasis was rather on frequent southerly winds, troughing mid-Atlantic, and if anything mean sea-level pressure was marginally below the long-term average) although August 1995 was certainly strongly anticyclonic.
I think there are strong signs that the weather will continue generally dry and settled for a while, but I am less confident about a continuation of warm sunshine after Thursday, with a stiff easterly breeze setting in and airmasses being picked up from north of due east. For north-western districts it may well continue warm, dry and sunny for upwards of a week, but in eastern England it might end up rather grey with suppressed daytime temperatures come next weekend.
Yes the signals after this week are quite weak at the moment. FI on a few models wants to bring the Greeny high back into play but we get put into a no-mans land ourselves. Best to wait and see, and enjoy this week of course. Not sure how nice it'll be up here, but it should be dry and warmer than the last few days
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Why is the chance of storms for next weekend something to be considered good?
Given the bank holiday weekend and the Olympic Torch Relay, warm sunny weather is far more preferable.
Sorry, that did slip my mind. Of course that wouldn't be good for the events on for the weekend
It'll be hit and miss even if it does come off.I was speaking from my personal preference for storms, even though the north-east won't get any!
towards fuel. I'll make sure it's a particularly shiny example, too 
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
There's a small shower heading my way! It's not particularly heavy, nor is it electrified, but who knows what'll happen?
Oh the excitement 