CRACKPOT

Hi Guys, Well - from the latest models, looks as though the PPN is decaying? A few posts on the general discussions are saying we are in for a slow thaw with a dry 10 days and going out with a whimper. I thought this was going to be a classic - all I can see is rapid downgrades tomorrow - am I missing something here? JK

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of south Wales and SW England on Wednesday. There is potential for further outbreaks of snow, which could locally be heavy and prolonged at times. This will lead to further icy stretches on roads and pavements. Issued at: 0125 Sat 9 Jan This for Wednesday is the MetO 'standard' warning worded the same as the others when they are unsure. JK

Yes Jonathan - missed that one being added. This is going against some of the charts, but the fax chart is showing this snow to cccur so the charts might come in line with this also? Although it might be the block fighting back against the breakdown, fist attempt. JK

Hi Guys, Here we go - snow anticipated Sunday onwards? There seems to be appearing a few cracks in this now with it only expected to be light. Some places might get lucky with some 'moderate' amounts, 5-10cm. This will blow around and drift in the brisk wind. This WILL cause problems. It seems there are possibilities that a breakdown is on the way, some say as early as Tuesday, some inevitably saying Wednesday/Thursday. I think this year is different, and this block will fight back and cause heavy snow as this happens - hopefully Wales will be the 'successful' battleground. There will also soon be 'doom and gloom' posts from 'mildies' trying to wind other people up - they have been unable to do this the last 2 weeks hiding in their 'warm' hovels! Alas, they will apear - guys don't bite - I am convinced we will keep hold of this cold - and if it does go it will only be brief before a reload occurs mid month as is being predicted by the GFS. I know some of the GFS has been poor, but not all the time. Lets hope for upgrades in the charts later/tomorrow and we can keep smiling! JK

Hi Guys, Just popped out - we have a nice shower up here - roads gone white again and going to make it difficult in the morning. Not a flurry but a nasty prolonged shower - nearly a fresh inch out there - most unexpected but nice! JK

Morning guys, Well - after watching latest Beeb forecast, Carol Kirkwood, showed snow Sunday in Wales - but specified it will stick, but it will be light snow only. Where as all the 'heavy' snow gone? Not a nationwide event, just a south west and south wales one. JK

Hi Guys, Still snowing in Bargoed but we have a bitter wind causing drifting - this could be quite nasty later. Just like the old days at the moment when we used to get snow, very cold, more snow, even more snow, bitter winds and drifting snow! Takes me back to my childhood which was well over 30 years ago!! JK

Hi Guys, Have snow startaed again here in Bargoed - this is recovering all the attempted work of the gritter that got stuck in my street twice - and he gave up! The radar is showing another potential couple of hours of snow still to come - glad I didn't try to get to work! JK

Hi Guys, Several inches here in Rhymney Valley and no sign of a let up! Not much activity going on outside - except snow. JK

Hi Guys, Well well, up here in Valleys, Bargoed, 8 miles north of Caerphilly - we have a whiteout ! Absolutely awesome - just made it back from higher up valleys - roads treacherous and now become very difficult for car to keep grip. This is brilliant - no work tomorrow - no school for my kids - I'm slightly happy! JK

cheers Kold - is it supposed to be just the South East tip of Wales? If so, up in the valleys I will miss out, but my work lower down, Tongwynlais, Cardiff might sneak some! JK

Hi Guys, Just rushed in and heard chances of snow - and no chances of snow - can anyone give me a quick update as I got to rush back to work - will I be stuck later? JK

Morning all, Well nothing happened so far - and looking at the Meto warnings - Wales is in warning land today - but we have nostly been taken off for tomorrow and rest of the week - whereas the tv has the snow only touching the far south east of Wales tomorrow. Simple fact - I think the snow is going where it wants to - and it doesn't know where it wants to go as it is on a sighteeing tour - unplanned! Got a funny feel Wales will get the least snow from any of the snowbands this week - anyone think the same? I hope we do get it towards us - got to go to work early - in case we get sent home (at least I will do some work early - if I stop going on here that is!!!) JK

Hi Guys, minus 7 degrees here - cold start to go to back to work - I can't remember if I left the air con & heating on - hope I did! Carol Kirkwood on Beeb just showed very little snow for any of Wales going by the latest forecast and then just a couple of showers - not what we needed to see and we, as I said in a post yesterday, we are just going to get very cold with an ever decreasing 'small' dusting of snow- that is not a severe spell! Hope it peps up, JK

Hi Guys, I was starting to get a bit excited by this upcoming potentially 'severe' cold spell, or is it me and we are now starting to get warnings that things will be cold and mostly dry for us in South Wales and just odd flurries or showers to look forward to, in the short term anyway? We do not seem to be appearing in any of the warnings for snow on the majority of weather sites that I am sure most of you look at, of which Netweather is the best of course! I have a bad feeling we will 'only' become extremely cold and snowless, while everyone else gets battered? The first attack from the north is precarious as fronts from this direction nearly always pass us by or become fragmented and do not get down here? Secondly, this south western attack is now going to only attack south west England extremities? Are the Welsh going to be short changed again? I am waiting the cold to become entrenched and then hoping some troughs appear with our name on - but they do not seem to have any sat nav directions anymore to get up to us! Can someone give mother nature our area postcodes please - Jackone can you sort this please? Just a thought. JK

30 minute heavy shower here - quite white outside - probably got nearly an inch - fascinating as I was going out - stayed in instead! Dry now - clear skies - already -0.4 degrees - slippery out and freezing hard. Is that it for the night - if so - nice surprise. JK

JB on Accuweather, Laminate floory chap! - cold air not actually here until tomorrow and then it is going to get bitterly cold - he states this winter storm is still in its infancy and will provide what we want (snow lovers that is) - he has been accurate since late October with his forecasting - he has some interesting posts in the free section of his blog fot those who have not read them. Wind picking up here now - but heavy rain - got to get colder when the cold air pushes south perhaps it will turn to snow - who knows! JK

Fresh warning on BBC teletext for moderate snow Wednesday & Thursday for South & Mid Wales - where is the precipitation to back that up as I see none? JK

Crikey - here I am seeing the biggest snowflakes I have EVER seen - they are massive! They are easily bigger than golf balls! What does that mean as a rule? Colder air - big convection going on? JK

Exactly - we need the pep up to perform the cooling - but the radar is not showing any increased activity for a while - the wind is not to strong with me hence my concern. I am sure both will happen but the rain is annoying! dropped to 1.3 degrees here from 2.5 degrees in the last 30 minutes. JK

Hi Guys, Very disappointing - snow turned to rain here - snow around on mountains, as stated before, snowlevel is around 1000 feet! I am under that by a little bit! Don't think it is going to turn to snow until it fades away tomorrow as no sign of the icy wind that might help. JK

Hi Guys, Bargoed snow starting to settle - just came from Blackwood with the missus and the roads are white, snow is thick and conditions quite treacherous! Blackwood are just further east than me and this seems to be making the difference. JK

Hi Simon, I think your elevation will do great from this in Brynmawr - I think,in my experience, 1000ft is the marker where the snow will fall down here - I just miss out around 850ft ! JK

Hi Guys, You reckon he is a mildy - I won't do any quotes children, just a straight post. Steve is a very experienced and well respected forecaster - I am sure Jackone will back me up on this. He is trying to give an informed opinionand he uses ALL the models and is NOT a mild ramper. You might like to heed people like this even if they do not show what you want. Guys, this looks as though we are going to lose out on the marginality of it all, I hope not, but I am sure at this moment, the charts are showing a northerly bias for snow only. Before you have a pop at me, I am a cold lover - I hate mild. JK

Hi Guys, Bad news i am afraid - on the general model discussion - Steve Murr, has stated that this is only a north wales etc event northwards - we in the mid and south are going to get rain from the latest updates. This is not something we want to hear and he also states we are going to have to wait until friday and even then, only if this low goes towards the south east later in the week. This is not good news and not what I wanted to hear. Hope for another change later but this low is now nearly upon us and our only chance is if it stalls and gets little northward progression. Heres hoping! JK