snowstorm445

Or Cork.

Zero consistency from the models as per usual. More proof that they should simply not be trusted beyond even the next few days let alone a week.

These model outputs are certainly not poor as some are suggesting, in fact compared with what was seen around the New Year I am very pleased. All the building blocks are here and frankly as pretty as the models may look beyond 5 days I won't be taking them seriously until the cold is within 5 days.

Jaysus that's a serious cold pool in the final chart, we only need the G High to become a bit stronger! Pity it's so far out.

Can I just remind people that this is an operational model, we need to pay attention to the ensembles to see if this is the general outlook overall or simply a mild(er) outlier.

No probs. Sure it's understandable given the eye candy facing us earlier. Patience is a virtue.

Unless its in a 5 day range at least then it is certainly not definite. We've seen this happen on numerous occasions thus far this winter.

What's ugly about it? A nice little Scandi High forming and an even better Arctic High forming above!

There's nothing really that poor about it. I would call it progressive if anything. As long as the Scandi High remains in place then I regard it as a good run.

Yep. The Scandinavian High is still going strong. There's still ample opportunity here.

This coming from the model that promised sustained cold weather throughout December? Well I suppose it's showing mild, so of course it must be correct eh? There is plenty to suggest that it will be cold. The NAO remains quite negative, which indicates a weak zonal pattern, not a raging Jet that your posts seem to indicate. The polar vortex still looks fairly weak as well. Can we please not make sweeping statements like "there are no signs of cold" when some signs are still there. We made the same mistake with the previous anticipated cold spells, saying there were no signs of mild and zonal weather, and as it happened these patterns began to return to the charts.

Of course, preferably another rule should be not to pollute the forum with incessant doom-mongering or pessimism. Would you not agree?

I really hope this thread will be put to good use, and not just forgotten about. Frankly I am sick to the back teeth of the bellyaching over on the model discussion, and no matter how strong the appeal, it always manages to make an appearance. Some people have absolutely no interest in the weather, just the prospect of blizzards. If you are going to comment on a weather forum I think we should be prepared for whatever the weather throws at us. If the summer doesn't show any potential for summery periods, or drops them from the models after good runs, it's upsetting but I'm hardly going to be greiving it. Why is winter always different?

Interesting! So if both the GFS and the ECM show mild today, then there's no hope for severe cold for the next fortnight? So what about the apparent consistency if these two models for the non-event cold spell? That wasn't just a days worth if runs, it lasted several days. But if it's showing mild then it must be true I suppose... How is it that the apparent "be cautious about the models" theory is often applied during predicted cold spells, but is noticeably silent following mild outputs? Even if back up signals like the PV and NAO lean towards a colder setup?

In recent times, a Nov 2010 standard setup has been the expectation, despite its massive rarity. The models are clearly picking up on something a bit more ordinary for the time of year, but the horridness of last December means that any signals for mild(er) weather is often met with hostility. I see no issue with the models picking up on milder weather, given the time of year, and I think we need to recognise how typical it is for this time of year. A cold winter isn't always going to have cold conditions throughout.

I would advise people to be cautious. While I think it may well eventually turn out like this, it will probably take time and might be watered down. I am not going to get drawn in with it like I did with the recent deep freeze that never was, I should have learned from last year of course. Still, amazing charts and hopefully it will come off.

Could be very useful for us in the far south as well, what with it coming off an easterly rather than the fairly useless 2010-esque north-easterly set up, which would bring moisture in over us from the Celtic Sea. Too bad its right out in FI.

I trust this evening's charts are as dire as ever? Well, just goes to show that no matter how brilliant and how consistent the models can be, some petty shortwave manages to break it all down. Looks like we'll have to wait that bit longer, if the GFS verifies. It's amazing. All the signs are there; a weak NAO/AO, broken vortex and even an Arctic High, and yet the Atlantic manages to stifle all the potential. And there was no signal of it until yesterday evening. No matter what the outcome, the models have shown themselves to be about as useful as a ship made of lead, constantly backtracking and switching sides (except the UKMO of course ) Anyway, I've not given up on a coming cold spell, but we will probably have to wait, which I have no issue with. But I really wish the models would stop continuously switching back and forth and constantly go against each other. It really pulls at your heartstrings.

If that Icelandic low moves out of the way we could have a very strong ridge rebuilding over the Atlantic. Certainly not a zonal pattern by any means. Look how powerful that Arctic High is.

That looks good for rebuilding the ridge once the Icelandic depression has moved eastward, and potentially linked with the one over Northern Europe. We saw this on the GFS yesterday (albeit in FI). I know its unlikely, but its an interesting pattern to observe.

I think its important to point out that models are often volatile and unstable when dealing with these sort of developments. They generally deal with zonal weather and developments like these are often not clear cut, and the models can occasionally throw up some fairly horrific charts. And can I also just speak on a personal level for a moment. A lot of these models throw up brilliant outcomes for those in, say, the North-East of England or Eastern Scotland, and even across the rest of Great Britain and into Eastern Ireland. This is where north-easterlies deliver the best. But in my part of the world, whilst these model outputs are nice to see, they generally don't deliver much in the way of snow or cold, and I tend to look at the models more out of interest because my expectations are lower. I'm not suggesting a pessimistic viewpoint over the models, but I think expectations need to be fairly moderate, remember, what we are seeing is an incredibly rare pattern for November and early December. The ECM may be poor but its simply what we can expect for the time of year, especially in these uncertain times. Lets just observe and enjoy the patterns we are seeing, and see them as an example of how unpredictable and surprising the weather can be.

Its always interesting how we will always regard milder weather as somewhat more valid in terms of charts than colder weather. Yesterday we had the GFS vs the ECM and UKMO and the majority of minor models (even though it has been said many a time on here that these models are unreliable). And yet many cautioned people on "not ruling out" what this one chart was showing, despite its utter difference to the other models. Skip forward to today and despite the fact that these same models are showing cold, and, particularly the UKMO, have been very consistent, many are happy to write off the cold spell and take the ECM as gospel. Now, I may have been looking at the wrong thread, but has the general trend over the past, oh I don't know, week or so been for colder than average weather? Why all of a sudden does an unprecedented switch that has emerged in the past number of hours mean it is undeniable fact and that all hopes of a nice cold spell, which is still on, btw, have evaporated? Now, I know this might fall on deaf ears, but can we please not make overly sweeping statements like "bitter disappointment" and "its all over" BEFORE we see proper consistency from all models, you know, like the consistency that we have seen for cold weather in the last week or so. Thanks.

Minority (or sometimes even majority) of plausable models show cold: "Let's be cautious! It's not cast in stone! Calm down!" Majority (and at the moment minority) of plausible models showing mild: "Awful! Awful! No signs of cold weather! Must be true!" Can everyone please take a deep breath and stop freaking out at the slightest hint of mild! Yesterday the ECM was on board with the UKMO and against the GFS in favour of a cold spell. Now it's played a role reversal and the ECM is the odd one out. Until there is proper consistency, and I mean a few days of consistency, not just a one model run and a few minors, then we can have some form of confidence on what lies ahead. We get this despair everytime something like this crops up, so I won't be holding my breath. Take a chill pill people!

I think most people know its not going to happen. But they really are truly beautiful charts if your a member of the cold camp.

What a brilliant end to the run! I know its not going to happen but this is one saucy chart!