snowstorm445

Some very windy weather last night, as well as today. Some flooding in Cork this morning but nothing like November 2009. Still, fairly awful trying to get into the city, and more rain is expected overnight. Lets hope its too prolonged.

They're nearly at war with each other over a bunch of islands. Of course they're going for opposite forecasts! They'd be accused of being collaborators if they forecasted the same thing!

Indeed. I thought he'd stay over on the DM forum but apparently not. He has several aliases on that forum though as far as I'm aware although he claims this isn't true. If you want to see Doylem in action head over to MV's facebook page. Some great craic going on over there.

I agree Doylem. However, this is the same weather agency which not only forecasted a major snow event in December last year, but also reportedly forecasted 900mph winds. Nice too see your back to the usual cherry picking though.

Its been a fairly decent weekend albeit, albeit a few dark clouds about today. Certainly much better than it was earlier in the week. I think I'll chip in to this snow forecast. I suspect November will be fairly mixed, possibly more on the mild side, so I'm going to go for December 9th. I suspect December will start very much the same but we could potentially see a cold spell setting up around the start of the second week, but this is nothing but a gut feeling.

You sound awfully familiar. He can exaggerate, but his basic gist is that it will be colder than last year. Its very unlikely that a '63 winter will show up, but it could well be colder than average. IIRC he has a fairly good record with regards winter forecasting. He forecasted a more benign winter last year, with the main cold in Europe located over the Balkans, which was the case later in in winter.

Hopes? Expectations? I suppose I would like to see a much more seasonal winter this year, with a mix of cold and warmth, but with temperatures coming in slightly below average. I wouldn't mind mild weather so long as its dry, but as little wind as possible (there's bound to be some, especially at the start). This isn't a forecast, just what I would like to see: December: A mixed start with fairly seasonal temperatures up until about the 10th, then a period of milder weather until the 20th, followed by a cold spell, gradually getting worse in the run up to the New Year. Rainfall to be about average, not too many windstorms (last year was dreadful), and temperatures to come in slightly below average. Wouldn't mind a White Christmas as well but not desperately cold, and not too much to cause disruption to travel. January: The cold weather from the end of December continuing up until around the 5th, then a fairly mild regime dominating, although high pressure nearby hopefully keeping us dry for the most part. This could continue up until around the 15th-20th when a more mixed, windier, wetter and slightly cooler regime sets in. Around the 25th, and Scandinavian High could arrive, a bit further to the west than last year, setting the stage for a cold end to the month. Overall, a fairly dry month, with temperatures around average, maybe slightly above. February: The month could start very cold, with easterly winds running right across the UK and Ireland. A low pressure system across the France could mean snow for much of the south, with drier but not completely so conditions further north. Winds from a north-easterly direction bringing a strong wind chill to boot. Gradually, benign conditions could return from the 15th onwards, with mild weather setting itself up for the end of the month. Overall, another dry month, but much colder than January. In summary, a fairly mixed bag with colder conditions towards the end, and much more widespread than last year. If it is even colder than this, fair enough, but not desperately cold, no 1963 or 2010 situations. Certainly not hoping for the complete flop that was last winter either. Again, this is not a forecast, but a hopecast.

But it will probably mean wetter, windier weather with a Strong Jet Stream, which could cook up some nasty windstorms. I'm not bothered if it's mild or cold, but I'd prefer if it was calm than windy. A colder scenario would probably bring much more settled weather.

Calm down, it's only October. There are several other long range models to take into consideration, unless that gets in the way of cherry-picking. Long range models are, in my opinion, not to be relied on anyway. I think their only real purpose is to get people in the mood for the coming season. In terms if weather forecasting, they can be very unreliable.

An absolutely rubbish day here today, rain non stop until about half an hour ago. It seems the North of the country has escaped bone dry.

Saw some frosts over these past few nights, temperatures have been down to freezing in parts. I just hope all this cold weather isn't wasted on October and saved for later on when its can be more useful.

Another bleedin' win for Kilkenny! Brian Cody must be sick of it at this stage. Anyway, a fairly contrasting day all in all. Very wet and miserable this morning, but much nicer in the afternoon. Fairly autumnal IMO. I does look as if, provided that a southerly airflow does get established this weekend, Ireland, Wales and Western Scotland should benefit the most. For a change.

Very interesting stuff. There really are so many factors to consider in meteorology, particularly in long-range forecasting. Certainly there are a huge range of things to consider when trying to even predict weather for this part of the world.

Blocking, in the broadest definition, is when an area of stationary high pressure disrupts the usual atmospheric air currents. In terms of this part of the world, an area of blocking would disrupt the Jet Stream's usual West-East pattern. The Jet Stream usually brings us fairly unsettled conditions, including low pressure systems which usually bring us rain. It also brings us westerly winds, and depending on how powerful the Jet is, the winds tend to vary in strength. In an area of blocking, the Jet Stream is displaced. During winter, blocking can push the Jet Stream south, bringing most the rain that we would usually get to the Mediterranean, and as a result, being on the colder side of the Jet Stream, we can see colder winds coming down from the north or east. In summer, if the Jet Stream is pushed northwards, we can see warm air from the tropics being pumped up over us, giving us fine dry weather. Its quite difficult to summarise it in short, but that is basically all there is too it. There are many factors that determine the probability of blocking, including NAO, the Polar Vortex, the AO etc.

That's what I meant. The NAO is only supposedly a reflection of this, and it is only really an indicator of the difference in pressure between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. And since it is predicting a neutral NAO for the coming fortnight (its predictions tend to be quite accurate), we can expect fairly normal westerly patterns but not very strong ones. If it was negative, we would be seeing a weak JS, and blocking highs could build in. In a positive NAO, the JS would be very strong, and there would be little if any chance of anything beyond a strong zonal pattern. If its neutral, however, it is highly doubtful that there would be either a very strong polar vortex or very weak vortex; more likely normal conditions for this time of year.

Agreed. The fact that it is not even October and that it is in the depths of FI, which we all know to be unreliable, means there is a minimal chance that what we are seeing will win hands down and will dominate the coming winter. The best indicator of how strong the PV will be is by looking at the NAO. The NAO measures the difference in strength between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. If it is forecast to be positive, you can expect above average heights to South (i.e. the Azores High), and below average heights to the North (i.e. the Icelandic Low), and as a result, you see a strong polar vortex, as the difference in pressure between the two pressure systems becomes larger, and thus the Jet Stream becomes more powerful and westerlies prevail. Basically, in a period of positive NAO, our normal zonal pattern prevails as a result of the strong PV. At the moment, the NAO is forecast to stabilise at around neutral, which is why the GFS might be seeing this. A very strong PV isn't likely to happen unless we see a strongly positive NAO. Apparently the GFS tends to naturally bring in milder air at the end of its runs anyway, or so I've heard.

I thought that 18z run was the worst one of the day. They don't call it the "pub run" for nothing. 12z is always the most accurate I believe, regardless of your weather preferences. I remember last year people would declare if a model was showing cold, that it was "accurate", and if the same model later showed "mild", it was "rubbish". Bit revisionist if you ask me.

Sorry, neutral to slightly positive.

I am allowed to have an opinion. In my part of the world it was constantly wet, windy and mild for the most part. No other pattern to speak of, generally mild muck for its entirety. Given your location I would suspect you got the lion's share of the warmth that month, so it certainly wasn't "vile" for all of us. BTW, I don't know about you, but I prefer more seasonal weather. While I didn't mind the wind and rain, it was very mild, although not pleasantly so (i.e. dry weather and warmth).

WSI predicted cold weather last year before deciding to take a u-turn right at the last minute in favour of a mild winter. They also made no mention of the severe cold spell in Europe in February. I'm presuming you are a mild lover, given the ?

The weather in Autumn does not determine what happens during winter. In fact, according to GP, a cold outlook for October tends to favour a milder winter, so there isn't much harm having high pressure nearby. I really doubt we will see the temperatures we saw last October (which was an absolutely vile month btw). Highs of only in the low 20s at least. Bear in mind that the NAO is currently in a fairly neutral phase to neutral phase, which means the normal westerly pattern will probably prevail.

It really depended on where you were. Last year was a massive disappointment for my part of the world, even during the cold spell, simply because we were just too far west to see any of the cold. Ireland was the only country in Europe to have seen above average Feb temps: The only snow we did get was slushy, north-westerly snow that was gone by lunchtime. The year before that, virtually the entirety of Northern Europe received very cold temperatures, all of the UK/Ireland included.

I don't remember what it was like last Autumn but I imagine like most winters there would have been a lot of hype about the coming winter, regardless of the signs. Where the signs there for a mild winter well in advance or did they arrive later? In any case, lets wait until some of the more accurate forecasters, Netweather included, release their forecasts.

Snow is quite normal in Highland Scotland at this time of year, nothing really out of the ordinary. However the snow we did see earlier this month in Scotland was unusual I believe. Back in October 2008 I remember being up near Dublin and the place was covered in snow, at least for a while. Very unusual for that time of year, but the winter itself turned out to be fairly normal, aside from February 2009.