jules216

Finally a vindication where CZ is mild and Eastern Slovakia cold. Since last 2 and a half winter months jan21/feb21/ and 1/2 half of dec21 the cold just stopped Across the border in Poland and Czech rep. Where they had great spell of cold and Snow and here nothing. But finally a change and we have snowy spell and cold in Eastern Slovakia in the same time as Czech have mild weather. The result is the snowiest Christmas in a long tíme here. Even now I am hanging on to freezing temperature where everywhere else is mild. VID_20211228_093521(0)(0)(0)(1).mp4

The thaw is set to reach us tomorrow with +5c uppers. What makes my location so interesting that we usualy survive under cold inversion the longest as we are surrounded by hills from basically anywhere appart from SW. Despite those warm uppers our local short range model Has me under tmax of 2C so Snow May survive. Spent 3 days in this picturesque village where we had around 25cm of Snow, back home is around 10cm still and this month gets a good rating from me 8/10, mean temp is -0.9C seen better but a lot worse in 2013-2020 period.

Just read UKMo 16-31d, gone is the cold wording altogether. In the models what we can see are 2 features that plagued our recent winters. 1.Iberian High, 2.poorly placed Atlantic trough, UK really needs all cards to allign,unbelievable. Here in Slovakia we escaped mild last minute. I mean that was close, reward is this temperature now that says it all + 15cm snow.

That moment when you wake Up on 24th of December to this. Its quarter past one and still at -1C. It was supposed to be a mild Christmas and tomorrow local weather agency put Up warning for 10-15cm Snow. Could this just be the most memorable Christmas in my lifetime? Hope UK does get compensation in the 2nd half of winter somehow if we manage to slow Down the vortex somehow. If tomorrow I get 10cm and next day as predicted Tmax of only -5C winter can finish,thats enough for me and roll on spring +25C and summer under El Nino +35C, have a Happy Christmas gang and keep the spirits high. VID_20211224_075645.mp4

This Christmas dráma is just insane. I highlighted my location in respect of T850hPa on 25th lunch tíme. The difference between SW and NE of Slovakia is a mere 11C according to latest Icon I am in about -4 uppers. Just ,2 days ago there was model agreeement full scale that I be under +2 uppers like SW Slovakia. Ridiculous drama

Look at USA, some.notable Twitter experts were touting change there for around Christmas because the MJO and NAO. How long does/did this -NAO stay and what change does it bring to East coast od USA? I agree that Scandi/Baltic and north Poland are having ok december, but how is december below 50° north in major European cities? Like 2013-2020 for sure and only latitudes above 800m cca did okay

Its funny how these charts totaly dont represent these MJO Phase 7 intentions at all, for what its worth despite 3 day cold snap here in Slovakia month will finish above average, Also in UK, from reading Twitter,cold ramping etc you would think we "should" be running like 2C below av the less said about pattern Beyond Christmas the better. Here comes that Iberian high with only think preventing it to look like Bartlet is a tiny weaker polar profile in Arctic. Now look at MJO being quasi permanent in phase 7 looking nothing like Phase 7 reanalysis, even analog years touted before - 2007,2016,2011 etc. naming few. To me in proves 2 thinks. 1. Analogs are obsolete in todays atmosphere. 2. Haddley Cell expansion - see that Iberian high that would in past perhaps stay in Africa now set to bring mild Európe weather. Subtropical highs are just too often inflated and in few degrees Higher latitudes.

It seems that models are improving fór me in Slovakia suddenly, as expected my good is your Bad unfortunatelly, before big days 24-25 I managed to squeeze in a super cold night of -22.2°C at my station 852m asl which confirms status of coldest valley in central Europe, enjoy Crimbo regardless od useless models

I am glad that the only model that Has the pattern nailed is CFS

There was no settled Snow in my Area this winter appart from 2x2cm that melted in 6 hours. Only narrow Strip of SW got about 10cm. It Has been the worst 1st half of december along with total snowless autumn I remember ever in my Lifetime.

I will ask you on 27th how did it go. I have said all along this will turn in to WB -NAO and I was laughed at, now all is going there and clearly cold from Scandi is deflected towards Iceland. How in south of UK will you get anything then cold rain or temporal slush with those temps?

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

Anyone Has link to UKMO 168hr chart?thanks

Why Can it not hit us All? Its such a pity isnt it? I would certainly be more Happy to cash in early on -14 uppers in Tuesday from Direct northerly,but this Carpathian arch rarely allows showers to penetrate south of them. I Wish I be in Zakopane next week.

The milder for SW UK the better,. Means more members with GFS solution like this

Not giving up just yet, there is tíme for sucking fingers later, lets just steal the cold first

Lovely set of 6Z ENS. Bringing back the traditional eastward correction with milder air staying in Iberia for Tamara to enjoy

A stres free solution GFS

Despicable ECMWF, mixing out cold even before 24.12 as I expected, from Arctic day 4 runs ago to uppers of -1, there is no point for these models to run beyond 96hr just waist of time,and time for me to turn of and find a different hobby, from such synoptic at 90hrs to find a route to mild again is ridiculous

This is much better option to collapse the high GFS rather then wb -NAO, under cold high the temperatures are even colder here as per high risk undercut that can advect southerly and 4C rain. As long sa cold remains here between 20-26.12 I will take that to the bank immediately.

I have never Seen west based -NAO where cold reached Iceland and then UK unless you count mixed out heavily moderated -2 uppers.

I think the ICON is heading for West Based -NAO if you as me, the Svalbard trough is heading west not south so all cold post 180h is heading Iceland direction if you ask me.

How is Control run a belter having gone from -8 uppers to 0 in a space on 3 days and gets 2/3 of Europe rid of cold air?

The mean is showing Nice placement of blocking but Control is the one scenario like the worst outcome out of this potential. Its hard to believe to get there in the space of few days,but Christmas - Europe all is possible. Last cold Christmas here was in 2001!

Isnt it funny? This run already bye bye cold on 23rd morning,makes IT a 3 day affair. As fully expected anyway.