jules216

Lets see how this pans out, august was painfully similar here in Slovakia to 2013, very hot. September was cold and Guess what,today Also started as below average and will last fór ,3 days then turns milder fór a week and later slightly below average. Will have to weight in 2013 as a posibility.

@CreweColdunfortunatelly 2013 oné of the best analogs if not the best

My projected summer temp. anomalies against 1991-2020 mean, June +3.1, July +1.6, August +2.6. This is enough to surpass years like 2003,2015 or 2019 as the warmest summer ever. Gemer región Slovakia. Precipitation - June 22mm, July -94mm and August so far 20mm. Total deficit fór 2022 is around 200mm. So far no day below 25°C Max in August, spectacullar.

Anybody wants to swap with me next week? Typically GFS now joins EC heat club for Central Europe. This is terrible news after drought we have this year.

Checking in here from Slovakia. We have been so far spared from the worst(best) of heat this year, on the other hand since start of May only had 3 days of below 20°C Max. Its just been hitting the right temperature interval of 25-29°C mostly with 4 days of over 30°C, nothing like 2003,2012 or 2019(yet). The feeling is however we might be only one southerly away from records it just needs to hit the trajectory Egypt-Italy-Hungary-Ukraine. What does bother me is the severe drought never seen in my life,only 145mm rain since 1.1. this alone adds about a degree to Tmax as less solar energy is expended on evaporation as there in no moisture in soil. This 7 day forecast is just horific. My local corn field today looks like this, in the western part where more rain fell the height is already 4ft, here like 5 Inches. The 2 week trend is a lot of rain in west and north west Europe but nothing is south,south-central or south east. What is unfolding is the worst combination of summer analogs we were talking a lot about from this list - 2003,2007 or 2012. It is taking the hot temperatures from 2003 but dryness of 2012. God help us if longer spells of -NAO develop, they are very hot here. End of report.

Checking in after a while. What can I say we had 26 consecutive Frost days in March,Saturday Tmax 4C and Sunday similar,this morning 3cm of Snow. It was snowing under -2°C with dew point -4°C, some parametres for April. So much for models that showed Sea of Red at the end of February for spring. March ended with -0.6 to -1.3 anomally, first half of April will be about -2 anomally

EPS throwing out some ridiculous charts.

This update from Monday EC46d will not age very well. Latest models instead showing Ice days and Snow for my location next week!

Reason behind mild Euroasian winters of Late - 2019/20,2021/22. Khodri et al. (2017) Sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere not only reflect sunlight, but also absorb incoming near-infrared and outgoing longwave radiation. For tropical volcanic eruptions, this absorption causes local heating in the equatorial lower stratosphere, creating greater than normal temperature and density gradients between the equator and poles. These anomalous gradients result in a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex, with strengthened zonal winds leading to positive temperature anomalies over northern Eurasia and sometimes parts of North America. We now have these contributing factors: Taal Eruption,wildfires etc. Causing anomalous warm lower tropical stratosphere almost like after Eruptions of EL Chicon and Pinatubo,this telefonnects to cold stratosphere and mild Euroasian winters.

It looks like a standard Euro high in the extended range, very typical of most recent februaries under strong vortex regimes. If anything we Can set ourseves watch from around 20.03 to at least until Easter and Beyond when cool NE winds will start to prevail. Before then the unseasonal warmth will speed Up the vegetation for Frost to again kill of apricots crops and other early blooming vegetation. This has Been the trend of recent years. 1.February one of the most accelerated milder means between 1981-2010 and 1991-2020, yet the frequency of damaging frosts in springs has not reduced despite february being almost anti-winter month. Very bad central Europe trend.

Strong vortex composites suggest we be on the 19.02 somewhere at lag 20d, do add another 45 for reversal to -AO, just in time for Easter and May cold snaps in Europe. Once again terrible news and end Feb and March very mild speed Up vegetation for the Frost to occur after final warming in Arctic. Just exactly as past winters/springs have Been.

From IMBY we had an average December and average January -0.7 and -2.1, western Slovakia is very mild while Eastern trending average, nights Well below average while Tmax above - Sunny frosty. Past week have seen near constant NW winds while for me I get a shadow from mountains the NW part is seing weekly accumulations at record levels of 2018/19 winter.Like this image from Yesterday.

Small ramp here, what a turnaround has this january turned out to be. The mean on 06.01 after record mild spell was +5. All was pointing out to a very mild month including CFS maps,weeklies etc. Now on 28.01 the mean is -2,6°C with relentless Frost where highest minima was not above -5! All the water reservoirs,lakes and streams are deep frozen.

A quick summary of GFS 12Z

There has Been a trend of lower heights in SE Europe recently. This feature will probably be the single most important part of the puzzle nearly for all of us during this anticyclonic Wave breaking attempt. Its very hard for models to forecast it now. But if this fails and +NAO vortex pushes this anticyclone to continent,but not to Scandi there will be a long way back to cold. Something along GFS Control or EC op is probably best case scenario.

This is a lot like my usual winter in Slovakia believe me, my mean wind spreed is like 1ms and cloud even lower, difference is that temps would be about 5C colder and i would have s legacy grey Snow if 1 inch that would have Fallen weeks ago. But still better then 10ms wind,showers and 8°C. You can see here barely dusting of snow

But there is a lot of presumtion on here about UKMO or EC mantra that when they agree on a solution IT must be right, Well its not its as far appart as it could be this January. One time it will serve to benefit UK. I would not complain sa UK has some nice frosty high pressure weather with little of Atlantic storms. Settled frosty weather is so much better then Atlantic i would say after 15 years of life on the east coast of Ireland.

From Euro high to Euro trough this is the story of January 2022 with repetitive attacks from NW in to central Eastern Europe. I am glad the seasonals like EC and UKMO are miles miles away from reality. There is so much talking about seasonal models ať the start of season and yet like spring 2021 and now January 2022 are so much different in Europe = Area of lowest skill level of seasonal models.

A small banter here. At my station I am trying to lower Tn fór Slovakia this winter elsewhere. It is a mountain task as it stands at -23°C. Our mat agency has warnings for -20/-22 interval. Only 20cm of Snow vs other Frost cold spots that have 50+CM but I always believed here lies coldest inhabitted village in central Europe not like Czechia,Poland or Hungary who activelly search for holes in ground where no one lives and claim it like official station or something. Here I have a post Office,train station and Actual post code

I wonder if this extended signal of Ural high may lead to a weaker vortex signal down the line. Tíme is running out for significant impacts even if SSW was to occur which is a long shot. It would have to be 2013,2018 even those years SSW occures much earlier. I for one not wish to have another cold spring, fór example 3 mays in a row have been below average although I am not sure May Has got anything to do with SSW.

Somebody enlight me please. How is it possible that seasonal models nearly all got this January wrong. All were in December singing with SC/EE high pressure,yet I am on 17th! Day of cold spell, see my weather station data. And this EPS to see of January. IT Has Been a winter of very low skill levels from weeks 2-3 on the models big time.

I was slagging UKMO seasonal model for January now I ve noticed how ECMWF performed with 2/3 gone. From Sceuro high is almost sceuro trough. From mean SE its more less NW whole month here. Just confirms how useless the seasonal models are and also there is a bias for Euro high nearly all the time,they are almost calibrated for recent climo.

Popping here as this is somehow related to winter banter - Dave Ryding just won today mens Slalom in Kitzbuhel, a dry slope background, amazing congrats. Although its hard to watch those Alpine blizzards in winter when you have not seen a flake, at least this warm your heart. Not múch snow here but gosh its freezing. Six nights since 07.01 below -10°C and if you have less snow second best thing to do is Hockey and skating. I enjoy IT even more then too much snow when kids just get wet

Pay back tíme from when Poland and CZ had whopping winter last year while here it rained, sometimes atmosphere Has a sense of justície

It shows: 1.negative NAO not necessary for cold here. 2. Also strong strat. Vortex not hurting. 3. Seasonal model hardly ever right for central Europe where cold and mild air masses usualy meet. Here is my weather station data for temps. January. Since 06.01 interval +1/ -10. Even for my standards this is a 2 week cold spell.