jules216

Felagie Glen -1.6 Yesterday and -1.2 today. Delachuper near Corgarff today -1.6. I was co-managing the installation using Nasa Landsat maps. Its a ecowit solar GSM station,of course unoficial. Felagie is about 15km NE of Braemar.

Yes, -1.6 at Felagie glen, a station that I recommended to instal using Nasa Landsat Thermal images this morning -1.2, Corgarff area was little colder -1.6.

Best winter analog for reasons attached Guess what year:)

I know but the opposite happened in 2020/21 where you got a great winter and here we took the scraps in February. Used to be much better here in Eastern Slovakia in past, we were more often under cold from the East. Since these frequent Minor SSW appear the cold just escapes from All directions yet we have increased rainfall episodes under +4°C.

It was nearly the same as the year that followed. Minor SSW early January 2015 put an end to promising cold snap that lasted from 27.12 to second week of January here in Slovakia. Almost every time this happens with Minor SSW events. They somehow re-shuffle the atmosphere against our central Europe cold snaps. Just a pity no one else really monitors this or does research. As its been repeated tíme and tíme again. The pre-cursor or onset pattern is cold while 1-3 weeks after shuts it down.

Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.

How about some Frost in July. Station in Highlands Insharn -1.3°C and Foregin(on the pic) -0.4°C today.

The one frustrating thing on behalf of poor July is that we cant capitulise the really cold uppers in to some record cold night time minimas. Like Scottish highlands only +1 uppers but stupid cloud always rolls in. Like last night at 22:30 IT dropped to only +5.5°C and then Cloud came. I Wish fór a clear night and attack at historical july minima of -2.5°C please to offset the obscure heat and media hystéria coming out or southern Európe.

I dont know much about qbo influence on summer European circulation. But as soon as SOI Jumped to + LA Nina like atmosphere on the 24.6 I thought there we go again hot air will soon push from North Africa to central Europe, luckily it didnt manage to reach as far north as LA Nina summers of 2021 and 2022 Also helped by surplus soil moisture from 315mm of rain here from May and June. Only now as SOI start to crash we "suddenly" see change of pattern to something cooler next week as per typical summer pattern where its múch wetter/changeable here in Slovakia in EL Nino summer then LA Nina.

That is.why I said its not to use GSDM for purpose of prefered outcome in summer as well as winter. I personaly use other tools in seasonal forecasting for Europe as this complicated diagnostics are often quite a bit too broadscale to be useful in our small continent. i am not trying to discourage others to follow these updates anyway but I ve Seen this tool being tried to be used for purposes of what they are not as useful for - like example when "it was supposed to bring a change to weather in UK after mid July" but we can see what 2-3 weeks delay at least and if change comes along its almost inevitable as the low Pressure cant stay or renew in one location forever.

Its a subseasonal tool used/created by some now retired NOAA senior meteorologists(Barry,Wieckerman) that calculates a ballance between global wind circulation(budget) vs speed of which Earth turns around its axis. These always seek an equilibrium so where is a complex method how one can try to predict at what lattitude will the westerlies/easterlies increase or decrease based on this budget/ballance. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/wb2007_ams.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwitzuHAs5qAAxVISvEDHa2-DOMQFnoECAkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0kx_Hm2WLuIDTQzT68qE4r

I wouldnt read in to the teleconections too much. With GSDM you are told not to try and fit them in to your prefered outcome in the winter, I dont see why it should be different in summer. There are other Global pattern that can dictate European circulation, like the persistant subtropical ridges who once they establish are dificult to turn around, remember 2007,2012 or 2015. Those were all lenghty hot periods in south/central Europe, and really long unsettled UK spells. The GSDM probably more useful tool for American continent as it starts to affect them first by the tíme the Rossby Wave is supposed to hit Europe who knows at what angles will the cyclonic/anticyclonic wave breaks happen. I know at certain times like perhaps this May and June you could call the GSDM a success with what happened but there were equal amount of times when it did not lead to prefed outcomes. Another issue is timing and its dangerous to presume certain dates of Large scale changes as I ve seen forecasters ending being laughed at on Twitter when they tried to use GSDM for a specific forecast dates ended being wrong/or few hundred miles out.

Here in central Europe we had a misserable May and June. My station is on 310mm since 1.5.2023 and cant wait for first hot plume next week. We had qualified for one heatwave in June as there are 4 definitions that Can be used and one is to have at least one day at any station 27°C daily mean amids of 5 days consecutive of over 30°C. As this is Also applicable for 1 station only out of 300+ the heatwave wasnt really there appart from 0.0001% of Area. Absolute Max us still only +34.8°C this summer so far in Slovakia, so a very moderate start to summer where we already should have been melted by some alarmists. A lot of us predicted this will be the case anyway as EL Nino isnt anywhere near as hot as LA Nina here in June.

Happy Christmas to all weather followers, our 5 days cold snap mid December now a distant memory, last of snow melted yesterday and so far running about +1.5 anomally, the mild spell that will last well until 10.1 and beyond will put even those regions around me that are runnung -1 anomally in to like +1 anomally. It would have to be a 1985 February style to make this winter anything else then a poor brother of last 4 forgetful winters.

Well as always time will tell what will be the end of winter temperature anomalies. If you want to know there been many times I ve been discussing things with Anthony on Twitter weather its under my profile or his.

But fór Massielo age of tweet usually doesnt matter as he is nearly always expressing ideas in 10-15 days tíme frame minimum.

Where did Masiello pull out a theory of Scandi high in extended? All I see is a gallery of very mild Europe well in to 10-15d.

Sorry mods. No model related, ať my area where I lived 6 years there was Snow last night 5cm and temperatures tumbled to -9 this morning. As my first hobby is "Frost Hunter" and I ve been searching for cold spots in Slovakia fór 3 years now installing dataloggers,stations to Frost hollows I believe west Wicklow would have broken All tíme records in 2010. But no one measures there,no station in wunderground database etc. And I believe if I was a Frost Hunter back in 2010 I would have found and measured -20°C without a shadow of doubt.

Few runs are okay, might get Snow on Thursday and Monday,then few more days of cold weather in between few CM of Snow there will be "hectolitres" of rain = 60mm, this morning it was 4C and 10mm rain. Czechia again will be buried in Snow all week, no wonder there exist saying "České stesticko" - luck of Czech. Ever since 2020 they get All the Snow and here from most of the same "action" I get 3C and rain. Yet we are closer to colder continental climate.

ECMWF vs my december analogs. I think its going to line up just about right for Europe.

It appears now that us in Slovakia will end up on the wrong side of the low with plenty of rain. To me its a 2020 rather then 2010 scenario. For now I am at least enjoying some frost with now regular minimas of below -6°C.

On this one Atlantic is dead but rather than one large low pressure area to drop to Europe each country gets its own shortwave - Ireland,Czechia and Norway. Are we turning in to Tropics with those small doted circullar scattered convection areas?

You have got to take a step back and start laughing looking at ensemble outcomes, almost every member brings different solution and there I count 3 different separete shortwaves just wandering in no mansland, if nothing else this is a typical Europe if you ask me of recent decade, weather at the end of november almost every year becomes unpredictable and you can throw bilions on supercomputers, they wont handle those shortwaves accuratelly. Only need to look at historical cold spells, there was Non of this stupid shortwaves bonanza IT was one large anticyclone and one large area of low pressure thats it, after 2012 we started to introduce these shortwaves drama and we know the result. I think its that +AMO with warm Atlantic creating enviro for.shortwave creation. Thats why almost always UKMO get it wrong with settled spell when they mention it in 16-31d,.their supercomputers cant see shortwaves at that range. Maybe its not that "Romanian" high to blame but AMO.

The thing I find hard to digest is this image showing midnight temperature next Monday, well in to December and appart from Scandinavia and far eastern Europe hardly any Frost at all. As a child I remember skating on frozen lakes mid December already. Not I celebrate one night frost below -5°C nearly.

That "Romanian" high pressure on tonight 12Z is soon going to become a full blown Euro high, how many times did I say look eastward