jules216

I think the reason being at a certain time the tools used by some long range forecasters were showing something different. The issue with GSDM is better for re-analysis or diagnostics but its quite prone to error in forecasts, almost as like with models showing 500mb on meteociel.fr There might be a hangover that is lasting almost a decade now since likes of GP(Stuart Rampling) managed to use this GSDM as forecasting tool sucesfully in 2012/13 but the other failed attempts to use GSDM tend to get quickly forgotten,sadly.

When doing re-analysis or even seasonal analogs I come to a lot of conclusions where SSW actually cut the good promising patterns. Its like a double edge sword. That is why best winter here in years was 2016/17 where zonal winds were kept just below average and no dramatic swings, the pattern was steady cold in Slovakia. How often the SSW completely re-shuffled good patterns here you would be surprised, quick example January 1987 or January 2015.

I dont think its bad luck only for UK as the pattern is very un-conductive for most of Europe and the same can be said about various dates this winter where you can say things gone wrong in worst times where enso coupling didnt happen. Speaking of IMBY the only positive was the fall of -AAM/MJO in November which finally brought good bit of snow at the back of falling momentum and La Nina type of pattern,which is quite interesting because 3 seasons in a row there was AAM rise in November and atmosphere wasnt typical of Nina yet it was like Nina this year with strong Nino in place Make your own mind up knowing for future that what can happen with taking the typical ENSO response which is not happening at all. That is why seasonal forecasting job is so hard

There is very little point in putting that much interest in seasonal models anyway. If you go with previous experience with them in winter. Sadly these days there is a bunch of people, self aclaimed forecasters what seek and use every single bit of information that would support claims of deep freeze/cold. Them people share it with a snowball effect. Like I said before there are very few out there that would look at their own forecast, instead they just vanish and re-appear in November again etc. Like with this SSW, too much focus on the fact about zonal wind reversal/weakening and very little on detailed analysis as absolutely no one mentioned a very close analog of SSW,near split of winter 2006/07 what has a great resemblance with this winter warming. We could go a lot in details about which years are/were very good analogs for different reasons but they all had about the same or similar outcome. First being a very good signal for cold/blocked second half of november in to early december, then possibly another 2 potential spells of colder outbreaks dependant on timing of course but overall being very mild. This is general for most of Europe and looks like its not far off. Also there is a good chance that March will end up cold with a good signal of Euro troughing as usual timing is yet to be decided but a signal is there. We will re-visit this later once close to date.

Not surprising that change if it comes will be well in to second half of February. The winter analog blends despite being cool on the seasonals did not look very interesting anyway for February with exception being 2004/05 but thats falling away now as 2005 had a big -SOI boost that reignited ENSO coupling just in time to bring cool February and March, however that is now not happening a crucial disconnect from base state is happening with strong MC convection and then COD which will diffentiate this year outcome from likes of 2004/05 or 2017/18 with this winter,early spring now looking closer to a blend of years like 2020,1998 etc. Most likely outcome here is cold March which is sadly looking more and more on the cards.

It was quite obvoius that any cols spell in Europe if it arrives anyway wont be coming at least until second half of February thats why last week I highlighted the fact that this hiatus period could be long more then 3 weeks long. That is going exactly in the scenario of past winters. Short snaps and long long breaks. So the backloaded winter ideas could equal like a week of cold last 2 weeks in February so its not probably 75% certain this wont be a back loaded winter. As each month Has a spread of about a week to 10 days coolish weather and 20 days of mild nothingness. Unless you live in inversion part of Európe where it takes a bit longer for Cooler air to be disposed of.

There was a lot of wibe around the seasonal forecasts of "back loaded winter" perhaps they meant 20-28.02.2024 period. As currently there is a big overwhelming signal of very mild Europe in next 3 weeks. Currently the best and only really coolish and snowy period date here in central Europe is 25.11-10.12. Which is as front loaded as it gets. The clusters 240-364 on EPS are showing what would be almost a record breaking warmth being summer time. This winter is a very good match of a blend of last 2. Few december promises and almost snowless January,followed by a week of cold in February and then the really cold pattern sets in spring time. This is almost happening every single year since 2017. This trend shouldnt be ignored. As I ve seen very little re-analysis after the wibe ends ",what has gone wrong". My oponion is that its a blend of factors. 1. Haddley Cell expansion - high pressure from north Africa as legacy of hot summers - pushing north creating a wall that prevents cold air to push too much south, and SST once they cool enough its spring when cold synooptics kick in, Late March - April. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5017662

There is a hint of easterlies on the GEFS but I need to see more traction elsewhere. There is reasonable presumption that this time around the route to cold if.it materializes will come from the east and at least not west based -NAO threat. Also with where high pressure is situated in the begining we wont have to endure endless rain before that. In november and december the very wet precursor pattern leading Up to first snap meant that ground was not enough deep Frozen and even 12cm fall next day settled in to 6-7cm and first hint of +1 managed to thaw Snow in a day. This is very important here. Imagine past 7-10 days there was Tmin every night around -9/-11 and soil like a rock, then Yesterday 4cm fell and even after 20hr today of +1/+2 and 5mm rain from 4cm 2cm survived. Wish this would have Been precursor on 25.11 but it was too early in season for solid soil freeze. Picture today earlier which is not pretty,but its shows how durable this 4cm fall Yesterday is proving to be. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5018329

There is a hint of easterlies on the GEFS but I need to see more traction elsewhere. There is reasonable presumption that this time around the route to cold if.it materializes will come from the east and at least not west based -NAO threat. Also with where high pressure is situated in the begining we wont have to endure endless rain before that. In november and december the very wet precursor pattern leading Up to first snap meant that ground was not enough deep Frozen and even 12cm fall next day settled in to 6-7cm and first hint of +1 managed to thaw Snow in a day. This is very important here. Imagine past 7-10 days there was Tmin every night around -9/-11 and soil like a rock, then Yesterday 4cm fell and even after 20hr today of +1/+2 and 5mm rain from 4cm 2cm survived. Wish this would have Been precursor on 25.11 but it was too early in season for solid soil freeze. Picture today earlier which is not pretty,but its shows how durable this 4cm fall Yesterday is proving to be.

Yes I agree, the line of messages I want to put across touches on models thread/next weeks expected mild bonanza, the idea/message I am putting across is more a general re-analysis of how this winter evolves. The chasing of some snow at least has been the main theme of models forever with 90% forum viewers I agree and they don't want/need to read the more climatological/analytical remarks I make. A lot of times the reality check in weather is very hard to look at and to stay positive upbeat even I often revert to chasing the pattern change that can produce snow and frost, not that we dont have them here every winter but this has to be taken contextually where is your location as having maybe 2-3 weeks of 3-5cm lying snow and absolute Tmin of -11C in central Europe IMBY is like 0 days of snow in London and -4C abs Tmin. Which is like you said a broad climatic trend - less snow days, less cold overall, higher abs. Tmin etc.

To be talking about specifics. With using tools like GSDM it often does good in diagnostics of current or past events but as a predictor is still quite a broad prone to be too general in specific microscale areas, maybe as a global diagnostics is okay. Lets count today is 18.1 and the "supposed" pattern change to something "maybe" colder is not advocated to arrive not much earlier then 3 weeks from now. That is awful long time in a season, this similar even longer hiatus here lasted over 3 weeks from mid December until 8th January which was onset of a dry cooler week or 2. So overall this is very much the same as winters 2021/22 and 2022/23, and beyond every winter since 2016/17. So despite all the fun and games of predictions its well on the way to be a very very mild overall and not diverging at all from what is recent trend. This should not be overlooked. As too much attention is being given to those hanfull cold snaps and not the overall net results of - T2m anomalies, snow cover days, total snow fallen in cm etc. Taking the Scandinavia away which is been cold since October everywhere else its another typical winter of last decades and there is only really few weeks left which would need to be almost historic to make this winter something else then any of last 8-9.

There was a lot of wibe around the seasonal forecasts of "back loaded winter" perhaps they meant 20-28.02.2024 period. As currently there is a big overwhelming signal of very mild Europe in next 3 weeks. Currently the best and only really coolish and snowy period date here in central Europe is 25.11-10.12. Which is as front loaded as it gets. The clusters 240-364 on EPS are showing what would be almost a record breaking warmth being summer time. This winter is a very good match of a blend of last 2. Few december promises and almost snowless January,followed by a week of cold in February and then the really cold pattern sets in spring time. This is almost happening every single year since 2017. This trend shouldnt be ignored. As I ve seen very little re-analysis after the wibe ends ",what has gone wrong". My oponion is that its a blend of factors. 1. Haddley Cell expansion - high pressure from north Africa as legacy of hot summers - pushing north creating a wall that prevents cold air to push too much south, and SST once they cool enough its spring when cold synooptics kick in, Late March - April.

I feel this winter hiatus is going to take ages. It wont be before at least second week of February before GWO hits phases that erode European high pressure in south/centre regions. Even Phase 6 GWO doesnt scrape too múch high pressure when its needed. This is well backed Up by Rossby Wave driven algoritms by P.Roundy and consonant chaos website. Looking at date now its 15.01 so its like 4 full weeks of hiatus with hardly any winter with then quite pointless unnecesary surge of cold when too Late in my view. The hearth of winter is basically snowless in central Europe thats looking like between 24.12 and 10.02 whith coolish start and "possibly" cold end of winter. Almonst a reversal of what one wants to see. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012870

Despite the analogs do show some promise for you, a blend of 2004/05,2014/15 and 2006/07 do mostly bring poor blocking placement for here. But this is skewed by huge SOI cash in 2005 which induced cold spell here Also in February/March 2005. I am not sure the ENSO atmospheric coupling now will bring the same, because I favor more a blend of 2006/07 and 2014/15. In 2007 there was a near SSW also which later brought big cold Wave in Scandinavia. But it never materialized here in 02/2007. Almost like now. Scandinavia Has Been in freezer since 10/2023 yet very little effect of it here. Actually the last cold month here was 06/2023 when IT was last month of Scandinavia being mild. So there is an inverse correlation here with Scandi cold as far as I Can Remember. If you look at how January is going the analogs will be close to outcome. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012786

I feel this winter hiatus is going to take ages. It wont be before at least second week of February before GWO hits phases that erode European high pressure in south/centre regions. Even Phase 6 GWO doesnt scrape too múch high pressure when its needed. This is well backed Up by Rossby Wave driven algoritms by P.Roundy and consonant chaos website. Looking at date now its 15.01 so its like 4 full weeks of hiatus with hardly any winter with then quite pointless unnecesary surge of cold when too Late in my view. The hearth of winter is basically snowless in central Europe thats looking like between 24.12 and 10.02 whith coolish start and "possibly" cold end of winter. Almonst a reversal of what one wants to see.

Despite the analogs do show some promise for you, a blend of 2004/05,2014/15 and 2006/07 do mostly bring poor blocking placement for here. But this is skewed by huge SOI cash in 2005 which induced cold spell here Also in February/March 2005. I am not sure the ENSO atmospheric coupling now will bring the same, because I favor more a blend of 2006/07 and 2014/15. In 2007 there was a near SSW also which later brought big cold Wave in Scandinavia. But it never materialized here in 02/2007. Almost like now. Scandinavia Has Been in freezer since 10/2023 yet very little effect of it here. Actually the last cold month here was 06/2023 when IT was last month of Scandinavia being mild. So there is an inverse correlation here with Scandi cold as far as I Can Remember. If you look at how January is going the analogs will be close to outcome.

Increddibly mild Continental Europe in the extended range. Greenland low and Iberian high advecting towards central Európe. We are just passed the seasonal wavelenghts where there will be much less inversion and hopefully warm sun here in Slovakia. A welcome reminder that spring is on the way soon and I am Also Happy with when I made my forecast that this winter is a blend of 2022/23 and 2021/22 which is turning to be the case with analogs showing a mild February that is now slowly adjusting in modeling. Also I am very Happy that back in October I managed to predict period of last two weeks of November and start of December to be the most witry period here which turned out to be correct. Ever since we are consulting our analogs with experts from Serbia and using "The climate weather company" as good source of cross checking our analogs we have in last 3 years produced very good results in seasonal forecasts.

Couple of more corrections and west based -NAO is there like I said before. Already euro high pressure is back on ECMWF and cold anchored in Scandinavia like its been All winter. Its been a while since last proper cold month - January 2017 here in Slovakia.

Most of it its dry cold as the Bulk of precipitation falls as rain on Saturday before the Carpathian arch snow shadow kicks in. Very common here sadly. I dont really mind being less snow but I would like the reservoirs to freeze Up to be able to play ice hockey. Its been like apríl here since 25.12 and no lakes are frozen.

I dont care what UKMO is saying now. i ve Seen them + ec 46d being wrong so many times and adjusted. What i know is usual surface outcome from a poor blocking development here in central Europe with misserable rain and SW flow and eternity to wait until that shortwave decides to move easwards often IT doesnt manage at All. As evidence here i present Late december 2021 start January 2022 or 2009 late winter etc. Truly misserable wet mild weather. Maybe for your part of the world in Europe there is more luck,but I thing you would need extra elevation which you dont have. Unless the pattern lines up ideally. But I call it playing with fire with this pattern. Its never simple anyway.

To be specific with my musing the real issue is a scenario like this. All the potential gone/delayed greatly. Not about the blocking itself but the outcome ať the surface. Wasted synooptics and potential.

Agree,and the mean is masking two extreme scenarios to look like blocking is in good place. There are -15 uppers and +5 uppers options here where mean will show a nice -7 value but once the shortwave does appear then its one way outcome not ensemble mean outcome.

Doesnt matter now. What will matter is the shortwaves which models will see later gaining influence. Only takes a small one to cut off the NE flow to merge through Európe and send cold to far north west. Been here a lot recently in winters sadly. Also MJO is out of synch phase 3 that does usually not mean European wide cold in January.

West based -NAO options are slowly creeping in as usual per post 2016/17 winter standards. Here in central Europe we are paying heavy price for south of Europe being too hot and it takes until spring for stable cold blocking to establish. So a winter of between 2021/22 and 2022/23 is very much unfolding with this west based -NAO gaining traction as models start to see shortwaves that will take prominence and by time sucking the NE Európe cold in to mid Atlantic. Something like late December 2021. This wet pattern since december 2022 is going on forever and 2023 was wettest year since 2010 here in Slovakia but it has to end soon where i see a cold March but mild April for a change hoping to overcome spell of cold springs since 2019.

How about this current temperature at Foregin station. Picture of location is from Lee who runs Highland weather project and data from a guy in Kent who captures all PWS in UK called Meophan weather.