Snowshine

Lowest Pressure Recorded between December 2013 and January 2014 currently stands at 970.14 hPa in Warwick, also being the lowest pressure ever recorded in Warwick. This was on December 23rd at 23:40. This LOW managed to bring the highest recorded Rainfall Rate (180 mm/h) but not exactly the highest wind gust. I remember complaining back in November 2013 when the UK's weather got dominated by several HIGH pressure systems, and on the 25th November 2013, the highest recorded pressure in my area (1042 hPa) was recorded at 23:50. It is unbelievable how a dry spell nearly always leads to an extremely wet spell, for example when the UK was stuck in a drought until 2012, nearly three years rainfall fell in under a year. Anyway, based on the upcoming storm, this could potentially beat the lowest pressure record as it is most likely one of the deepest storms to ever hit the South, possibly similar to 1990. Then we have another series of storms heading our way.

Today's Atlantic Storm is due to bring 50mph gusts in the Midlands or possibly higher, which is clearly capable of knocking a few trees down with a highly saturated ground and flooding, but Monday doesn't look too lively, but it should bring some rain. Wednesday seems to be potentially the worst of the storms, this year. A forecast on Weather Online shows 52mph SUSTAINED winds hitting my reigion, and during that time people are at work/school, if that is the outcome then it will certainally cause disruption, not potentially. XC Weather shows a lively rest of the week after Tuesday, with gusts reaching 60mph+ here on Wednesday, small rest bite on Thursday, then 10cm Snow on Friday morning, then an even more severe storm on Saturday with gusts over 65mph, melting any snow. As usual the MET office shows hardly any of this.

LONG RANGE STORMS DUE (UK) FRIDAY - Most GEFS models show this storm heading directly over Scotland, affecting mainly the usual North Western areas, although other areas may be disrupted if these turn out to be the most accurate models. Other models, such as the one shown below, shows this low pressure system as being quite a weak one compared to Monday's Storm. If this model turns out correct then the South do not have much to worry about apart from some rain and blustery winds. MONDAY - This could either be a fairly damaging (55%) storm, weak (35%) storm, damaging (9%), deadly (1%). The models are extremely mixed, some show the storm hitting at a later date, some show the storm not hitting at all, some models don't even show the storm. If it does hit then it could be a fairly damaging one. LONGER RANGE STORMS (These storms are normally shown on few models) 5 JAN - Many models show a storm, few show the storm over the UK. It is currently not expected to be a storm with a pressure under 965mb. 7 JAN - Some models show a big storm with a pressure of 945mb to hit the UK, others show no storm. THEN there is potential for an extremely cold mid January, as shown on long range CFS models.

Tommorow's storm seems to have moved slightly further North than what was expected yesterday, this means less stronger winds for the South but winds will still most likely reach gale force and even storm force for some areas. Friday's storm might be coming with more force than Monday's storm, but the models are still quite different from each other at this point. Also this storm may not be as strong as Monday's, but it might go much further South. There is a potential for a storm on New Years Eve to New Years Day, which could dip to a very low 925mb, however the models are all very different.

A model is now suggesting that the Boxing Day storm could be the storm with the LOWEST recorded pressure in the North Atlantic. The UK is under attack by upcoming storms, I must actually be lucky to be going on holiday during this week, although the return might not be so safe just by looking at the models. SMASHING! 910mb Storm heading directly towards the UK! Possibly the Worst Ever Storm in the UK. I cant say I am looking forwards to returning to the UK possibly with a tree on top of my house!

The storm track for Monday seems to have headed further South, and has deepened slightly on some models. Anything can happen to the Storm in the coming weekend, although it looks highly likely the storm will hit the UK with some serious strength, now the main question is, how far South will the storm go?

I am keeping a close eye on a possible upcoming storm which could perhaps be worse than this Monday's storm, one of the models already state this storm on Fri 27 Dec - Sat 28 Dec will reach a minimum pressure of 925mb, however that is only one of them. Another storm to potentially look out for is on New Years Day, during firework displays, although currently the chance of this storm hitting on New Years Day would be around 25% as few models show the storm. More storms are certainly possible while it stays mild in December and maybe January, but this is not good because personally I would rather see snow that wind & rain, even better, blizzards.

Well I will be missing out on this storm which will be unfortunate, so not really hoping for the worst on Monday at all, even though predictions does seem to getting worse as the week progresses. Annoying how today's storm seems to be something that will come and go without notice whatsoever in my area, similar to Wednesday's storm which only bought a maximum gust of 37mph when predictions were of 60mph. Coming back next week may actually be another thing to look at as one of the Ensemble models shows the storm to be EXACTLY where my flight will return. Newcastle. And look at the pressure here, possibly worse than Monday's upcoming storm.

Storm has really calmed down, now winds are only 9mph,

WIND GUST turned out to be 47mph maximum, not that strong, really. Many fallen trees reported in the Midlands.

The squall came and went in just under a minute here, but when it arrived the rain was REALLY falling, torrentially. The wind was not notable because of the rain, but it sure was strong, but this evening winds have not been as strong as what was forecasted. Highest gust maybe just over 50mph? It is still raining lightly though, showers still to come here. Looking closely at tomorrow evening with actual snow forecasted!

Not really extreme here in Stratford, but sure is gusty with persistent heavy rain.

Gosh, just realized that on December 24th 2013 it may gust 70mph in the Midlands! Shame I will be on holiday to miss it, nothing to see like that in Dubai. I think the storm will be fairly quick so maybe that's why there is no warning here?

Anyone got any idea what it will be like in Stratford (West Midlands), the forecast is 60mph gusts, but no warnings??? very confused.

Im still waiting for a day similar to October 27th 2002, when winds substained 47mph here, and gusts reached beyond 65mph.

I am actually liking this sudden change in weather. We were stuck under a VERY slow moving High Pressure system for around 3 weeks here in the South, but a weak Low Pressure system pushed in and bought little wind and rain to the UK. Unfortunately another slow moving High Pressure system pushed into the UK, it bought cool and dry weather (BORING), and did not much fog to my area either, although fairly Severe fog hit London just before the High backed off. Yesterday a fairly strong storm bought Severe Gales to the North, and Gusty winds to the South. Today's storm was not as widespread, or as strong as yesterday's storm, but still bought Gales to Scotland. It is likely that Monday will be quieter, but there will be some rain in the South, and snow showers in Scotland. Tuesday looks much quieter in the UK, possibly some patchy rain. Storm 1: Wednesday will possibly start off bringing Severe Gales and Heavy Rain to North West Scotland, which is under attack by Low pressure systems quite often at the moment, but then later on Wednesday England will become affected by Gales and Heavy Rain, especially in the West. Thursday seems to show that Scotland will be affected once again by Severe Gales. Storm 2: Although this system will likely be less stronger than some of the previous Low pressure systems, it looks like it will bring Gales / Stormy Gusts across the whole of England with gusts in excess of 60mph in a majority of England. It will also likely bring Heavy (some Very Heavy) Rain. Monday could potentially be stormy but little can be said as it is so far off.

The Snow Risk chances have decreased for much of England in the last hour. Earlier on much of Western England had a snow risk of 90% however now the highest snow risk is lower and much less widespread.

I don't think any of England will get any snow on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning with the exception of the highest ground in the North of England. The forecast for my area two days ago was persistent light snow on Wednesday Morning with temperatures reaching only 2C max with a feels like temperature not going over -2C and a -6C feels like temp on Thursday. Now the forecast is Light rain showers on Wednesday Afternoon with temperatures reaching 6C and reel feel at 0C. Certainly shows a DOWNGRADE. Not looking to any snow because the chances look so small.

Very Windy Saturday & Windier Bonfire Night Predicted It is currently Very windy with wind speeds recorded at 32 mph recorded at Wellesbourne Airport and gusts beyond 45 mph, Unsurprisingly windier than the St. Jude's Storm for my area. Today is not that much less windier than the St. Jude's Storm in several other areas, as a maximum Wind Gust of 84 mph has been recorded at Mumbles Head, South Wales. Apart from the Wind there are not many showers falling in my area, however a heavy shower is slowly approaching. The Met Office weather warnings seem fairly inaccurate and not high enough. I would say an Amber Wind Warning would be necessary for the South West coasts and I would expect a Yellow wind warning for the Midlands, parts of North England, Wales and the South West. Also the Met Office issued an Amber Wind Warning last week unnecessarily for some areas. Just proves that they do get it wrong.

This Storm was Awful here, Awful in the way that hardly any wind hit, however now a river near me is under a flood warning, so yeah i suppose it was a storm but without the wind here.

Oh, so the action has finally begun down South? Well here it is still raining, heavy at times, but, the wind is like only 5mph stronger than earlier??? But I can see the Wind Speeds rising more northwards.

The 'storm' does not seem to be as bad as it was expected to be, although winds are picking up gradually. Clearly my area is now at the centre of the storm, the winds are basically 1mph, then a rapid rise to up to 35mph winds.

XC Weather shows all the stormy winds to the South West, looks like anywhere inland can only except light winds and breezy gusts. If this storm doesn't end up causing the slightest disruption to my area which is currently under an Amber Wind Warning, I sure will be criticising the Met Office as they sent me a personal email saying my area is likely to get stormy wind gusts.

I don't know whether to believe the predictions from the Weather Charts, Weather Videos or the Online Weather Forecasts, they all show different predictions for my area tonight into tomorrow and they all got the wind speeds from earlier on today incorrect. They forecasted 18mph winds today and the wind speeds peaked 28mph with gusts reaching 45mph, this however caused very little damage here, however no weather warnings were issued for today. Tomorrow an Amber Wind Warning is in force for my area and all areas to the South and slightly to the North of me, however the Met Office predictions show wind speeds only reaching 25mph here and gusts at 45mph which is quite a rise from the earlier prediction of 18mph winds and 38mph gusts. Although I believe the Flood Warnings will probably be necessary here because the River Avon water levels seem fairly high at the moment. Being in Stratford-Upon-Avon we are not actually very well sheltered from wind, however strong winds are rare here. I have added the current forecasting differences below from several weather sites and other sources, only showing the strongest wind predictions and rain predictions. NetWeather: 26mph Wind, 53mph Gusts, 5mm Rain Met Office: 25mph Wind, 45mph Gusts, Heavy Rain Mainly ACCU: 20mph Wind, 45mph Gusts, 20mm Rain Zoover: Force 3 Winds WeatherOnline: 14mph Winds, 19mph Gusts (!) Weather Channel: 19mph Winds, 40mph Gusts MetCheck: 15mph Winds, 30mph Gusts XC: 15mph Winds, 32mph Gusts BBC Weather Video: 80mph Gusts NONE of these are accurate!

Some very heavy downpours here, turning into just persistent heavy rain. Dissapointing lightning, only heard one very loud rumble of thunder to the south of me. Rain getting heavier as I am typing, no thunder now though.