Snowshine

My gosh, its all about luck in my area. Didn't see anything, none of it was that loud. I honestly cannot believe they missed up by so little!!! The rest of today looks disappointing too.

Not looking good so far, the storm is breaking into two, one side heading towards Wales, and the other towards London.

The break between the storm is heading directly towards the Midlands, why have I got a bad feeling :/

"OK?". The whole of Warwickshire has a chance of getting some thunderstorms, not just the North, in actual fact the South has a slightly higher chance.

Bedworth is in Warwickshire, as is Stratford. Just looks like our luck keeps getting worse! Hopefully we can expect the CAPE to shift to the West slightly in a later model, else we have little chance of an extreme storm.

A level 1 was issued for W France and S England for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes. A level 1 was issed for E Spain, S and Central France mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.A level 1 was issued for W-most Russia, parts of Belarus and the Ukraine mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.A level 1 was issued for E Romania, E Bulgaria and N Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for waterspouts. Between a pronounced cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean near 45°N and a weak ridge over Central Europe, a deep Southwesterly flow with strong warm air advection spreads over Spain, France, England, BeNeLux and Germany. This configuration will open up a prolonged severe thunderstorm episode in these countries.Further East, a compact upper-level low slowly moves from Denmark into Southern Sweden. Rather low geopotential connects it with a second upper-level low over Turkey. An anticyclone sits over Western Russia. DISCUSSIONE Spain, France, EnglandUnder strong insolation and a capping inversion created by the warm air advection, rapid diurnal heating and moistening of low-levels can be expected. Forecast models agree on the buildup of CAPE on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg in France till the evening with realistically looking surface dewpoints of 16-18°C. The instability maximum is expected in the Northern foreland of the Pyrenees. Deep-layer shear strengthens to 20-25 m/s, and at least slightly enhanced shear and helicity will also be present at lower levels. The conditions look prime that any forming storm can turn into a well-developed supercell. Main uncertainties will be if convective initiation can be achieved with such a strong cap, and if forming updrafts can grow persistent enough to withstand entrainment of very dry mid-level air.Diurnal timing of large-scale lift is adverse to widespread storm development: after a first short-wave departs eastward until 09 UTC, peak daytime heating hours will rather see large-scale subsidence over most of Spain and France. Only in the evening hours, stronger vorticity maxima will start to overspread the Bay of Biscay and Western France. Though their exact timing and placement is still uncertain, their contribution to lift will likely erode and finally break the cap. The most plausible scenario is that elevated storms will form over the Bay of Biscay in the evening and move northward into Western France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne) overnight. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk. Other kinds of severe weather (excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes) are also possible, but do more critically depend on the question if storms will be able to root down to the surface. If they succeed, they can fully benefit from moist low-level air and further improving wind profiles overnight.Late in the forecast period, elevated storms will likely extend into Southern England with a slowly decreasing severe weather risk.Further East and South, isolated storms may form over orographic features of France and Eastern Spain between noon and sunset, but will struggle to still penetrate the strong cap as soon as the detach from their points of initiation. If they succeed, supercells with a risk of large hail and severe downbursts are forecast, an even an isolated extreme event is possible.Relatively highest probability for initiation seem to exist over Southwestern France in the wake of the Pyrenees, where Northeasterly upslope flow meets with Northwesterly onshore flow from the Bay of Biscay. This region will also see a second chance for initiation overnight when an outflow boundary will move onshore in the wake of the aforementioned MCS. However, with slim to none precipitation signals in all models, confidence in convective initiation is not high enough for a level 2 despite the impressive thermodynamic and kinematic setup.

A high CAPE (>700j/kg) and negative LI (<-2) is not always neccessary in producing severe thunderstorms. I remember on March 28th this year; when there was a violent thunderstorm that passed by my area, and the CAPE/LI was not particually high, not even 500j/kg. The temperature was around 8C which is quite cool for Thunderstorms and the humidity was not very high. The 12z GFS models show the CAPE and LI has been downgraded once again, it is slightly disappointing that our opportunity to experience the "WORST HAILSTORMS IN 170 YEARS" looks very unlikely, considering the CAPE has been much higher in the past, however things could change in the coming hours. There is still a possibility for severe thunderstorms with the humidity / temperature and some CAPE/LI, but not as severe as previously thought.

Most recent GFS shows major downgrades in CAPE and LI, especially across Wales and the Midlands. If these models turn out to be correct then I am not expecting any severe storms whatsoever, the maximum CAPE in the Midlands is 500j/kg, I mean??? That may not even trigger a storm... With an LI Of -2!

The highest CAPE values are more widespread than what the previous GFS runs show, especially in the Midlands, East & SW England, but the maximum LI is still -4 for most places in the most recent run, not quite high enough to bring "The worst hailstorms in 170 years". The timing of the precipitation may not be so good for all places either.

Probably going to be the same as June 28th 2012. The worst storms go JUST about too far east, and an odd minor storm passes by. Got my hopes up for a decent storm.

Being located just about too far east from the thundery shower. Cumulonimbus formations occurring in England. Likely meaning thunderstorms. Today might bring a change of one!

This week is certainly not one to remember. Thursday was the only day that featured a few distant rumbles of thunder and downpours. Looks like there is no chance of a storm today, the CAPE is only 190j/kg and LI -1. The most recent storm here was on March 29th, nothing this week I can count as a 'storm'.

Living in the Midlands, storms that produce 50 mph gusts are fairly rare, but 60 mph gusts are extremely rare, and Friday's storm managed to exceed that in some areas, not to forget Wednesday's storm which produced over 50 mph. I am quite amazed that the two storms which produced the strongest gusts out of any other storm in the Winter period both happened in under 3 days difference. After these storms I wont think of any other minor storms as 'storms' any more, I think wind will be something of the past for a while here, until next time. Flooding was nothing in the River Avon this Winter, the River Avon only just slightly burst its banks around five times, but recently has stayed very low. 2007 and 2012 were much more severe in Stratford. Monday wont compare to other rain storms, rain will be much lighter but rivers will still suffer as they are very sensitive, especially in the South West, and of course the River Severn in the Midlands. Possibly widespread 8 mm rainfall totals. Wednesday will bring more light rain. Thursday could be wetter, wind not a feature. Storms will start coming into Scotland as rain, giving the South a longer rest, until early March when storms will come slightly more South. No snow in the forecast unlike previous runs.

The SW will be the worst affected by the 'final' major battering of the Winter, although not the worst storm in that area. Places inland might see this storm stronger than any other this Winter.

Tomorrow's storm could be windier inland than Wednesday's storm, but not as windy in the South West and certainly not as windy in Wales. THE WIND GUSTS SHOWN IN IRELAND ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS STATED ON THE MAP, IN FACT MUCH LESS SEVERE IN SOUTH IRELAND. AROUND 55MPH MAXIMUM INLAND. The storm is very likely to hit the UK near enough as stated on the maps, but another scenario could be that the storm heads South and hits Northern France and South England, limiting wind speeds inland. The chances are very slim currently. If the storm heads slightly north, which is a very unlikely scenario, then Southern Ireland will be much worse affected. As for Flooding, rain amounts are likely to be more than Wednesday's storm, again inland should get more rain than Wednesday's storm, but the South West will get the most of the rainfall. Wind Gusts on the GFS chart are not as strong as the previous storm gusts inland, with a maximum of 55mph.

Great Map although wind gusts could potentially be stronger in the Midlands and locally 80mph+ in the South and 70mph+ in Wales, if not stronger.

The Met Office Weather Warnings were fairly accurate today in comparison to other warnings issued for other wind storms, with the exception of the pointless snow warning. The Midlands can expect more wind warnings on Saturday, along with rain warnings which have been already issued. All three wind warnings were shown on the West Midlands warning map aligned. Saturday could bring windier sustained winds, but not much windier, and also for a longer period of time. Gusts maybe the same, around 55mph. Saturday 12:00PM, Winds are expected pick up throughout the night. STILL ANOTHER 3 DAYS LEFT SO CHANGES ARE MORE THAN LIKELY, THE STORM WAS UPGRADED YESTERDAY, AND WAS DOWNGRADED BEFORE THAT.

Why hardly ANYTHING in the Midlands, 55mph gusts happen all the time so why this storm?!!!! Then again... worse to come later as the warning is not in force until 6.00PM!

Currently seems to be snowing quite heavily in Scotland, and temperatures dipping to -5C, snow looks possible in North England tommorow, heavily. Mainly rain in S. Winds have been upgraded slightly. Very interesting switches in Weather in the past months though. November 2013 - Most of the UK was under several slow moving High Pressure systems for most of the month, forcing very dry conditions and fog, but not really severe fog. Temperatures were colder. December 2013 - Scotland was affected by many deep Low pressure systems, some of the deepest recorded, especially in the NW. England not as badly affected. Milder Temperatures. January 2013 - The stories changed from Scotland to SW England which was affected by many Low Pressure Systems, some of the deepest recorded. Flooding was a main issue.

Forecast's show the storm downgraded in the Midlands, also the Amber Warning is further West. The storm wont last long either... Especially the rain.

The Environment Agency seems to lack issuing any flood risk warnings whatsoever in Warwickshire, surrounding areas have Medium Risk warnings and Low Risk warnings, but for some reason our area is always at a Very Low Risk of flooding even though a majority of the Flood Warnings are for rivers in Warwickshire, such as the River Avon, Leam & Stour which are always under a Flood Warning. Quite Annoying as 10mm is predicted in about 3 hours tomorrow. Anyway... Currently what occurs next week is uncertain, however it is more likely to be dryer than wetter. Strange how all the storm talk switched suddenly from a storm on Friday, which has been very heavily downgraded, to Wednesday's storm was has been quite heavily upgraded.

Friday has been downgraded... Just to upgrade Wednesday.

I think the Midlands has been lucky SO FAR this winter at avoiding the worst of the winds, all of the storms that have passed by have caused minimal wind damage and less flood damage than expected. Of course flood damage has still occurred here, and certainly caused distruption, but most areas in The Midlands did not receive an Amber Rain Warning at all this winter, and some areas had no wind warnings whatsoever. This surprises me because the storms that passed by were not that far north from the Midlands and bought a record minimum pressure to several areas, such as 966mb, probably lower than 1987 and 1990. Today's storm was the worst this winter in most of the Midland's areas, with a maximum wind gust of 55mph recorded in Coventry, strongest since 2007 according to Bablake. Got quite a shock checking the updated XC forecast after seeing Friday next week could see the strongest wind gust since October 2002, or possibly the strongest ever recorded in my area. Friday will be kept a close eye on, and Wednesday. The distruption this storm could bring could be disastrous, especially after recent storms making tree roots weaker than usual and saturated.

Lowest Pressure Recorded between December 2013 and January 2014 currently stands at 970.14 hPa in Warwick, also being the lowest pressure ever recorded in Warwick. This was on December 23rd at 23:40. This LOW managed to bring the highest recorded Rainfall Rate (180 mm/h) but not exactly the highest wind gust. I remember complaining back in November 2013 when the UK's weather got dominated by several HIGH pressure systems, and on the 25th November 2013, the highest recorded pressure in my area (1042 hPa) was recorded at 23:50. It is unbelievable how a dry spell nearly always leads to an extremely wet spell, for example when the UK was stuck in a drought until 2012, nearly three years rainfall fell in under a year. Anyway, based on the upcoming storm, this could potentially beat the lowest pressure record as it is most likely one of the deepest storms to ever hit the South, possibly similar to 1990. Then we have another series of storms heading our way.