Snowshine

At the moment, the Midlands is the hotspot for upcoming severe storms - for once. London will probably get few while we will steal them all

There is a very low chance of these CAPE/LI values. The models tend to downgrade the values on the day, as mentioned above, so it may well be less than a third of the forecasted values and much less widespread. A good example would be that storm earlier this month, in which an Estofex (L2) warning was issued for, and the storm occured on the opposite side of the warning zone. In addition to that the CAPE/LI values dropped immensely. As for the heatwave, which may indeed trigger violent storms, Metcheck has stated: "In all fairness, this is the first time the new GFS has had an opportunity to handle a proper Spanish plume and therefore many forecasters are a little hesitant to go with exactly what the GFS is saying, but the ECM is also showing a large area of very warm air spreading from from Spain and France from Wednesday onward next week." "OK Metcheck, so it's a heatwave... what's new? Well, the GFS is suggesting maximum temperatures around the 35-37c (95-99f) mark on Thursday. The record for the UK in July is 36.5c and that could well be broken if the output is correct. Not just that, but the new GFS has been consistently under-estimating maximum temperatures recently." It may be too short-lived to be a proper heatwave, but any heat at those temperatures with those CAPE/LI values would easily trigger a few violent storms. I am pretty gobsmacked that according to Netweather it may feel like over 40 degrees, but really it would be the storms that we want, the heat is just the trigger - but the risk of storms are actually low next week.

Actual chance of hot weather (amazingly) seems higher! May be 27-30C across the region next Tuesday - but there is more than enough time for this to change, so I am certainally not getting my hopes up! To be fair, alot of years have at least one brief spell of very warm/hot temps, so I would not be too surprised if this actually happens. I feel a short-lived heatwave may be on the cards at some point this summer though, it has been a while since the last heatwave.

This week (hopefully) will be warmer and much sunnier from now onwards, except for tommorow morning at around only 9C. The weekend will probably be wet and mild - pretty much definitely wet and cloudy (as per usual). Next week may be (about 20% chance) hot, but I would not be surprised if it ends up being mild and cloudy.

I expect a storm on June 28. For some reason, that day seems have been stormy for England on many years.

North westerlies vs South westerlies. Not too sure which one is better though... NW = Mild, Breezy, Drizzly, Cloudy SW = Warmer than NW, Windier than NW, Wetter than NW, Sunnier than NW Well, looks like SW are coming soon.

I couldnt dissagree. This year is among the most uneventful weather-wise years ever. Everything has been so subtle and short-lives (e.g. no prolonged cold spell, no snow, no extreme thunderstorms which occur more reguarly). That is not to say last year was amazing, because it really wasnt, but the storms did make up for last years boredom of no snow whatsoever; this year however is incredibly boring as of yet... then again, we do have the second half of the year to make up for this, else it may just be the most boring year ever.

The best thing to do is forget the weather, and before you know it there will be storms on the forecast.

Everyone in England might as well join the No Storms Club! The next one isn't anytime soon. But yeah, only homegrown storms seem to be the best (e.g. June 28, 2012). The channel is literally shooting storms before they reach the land. I feel this year will be extremely poor storm-wise, but a great year snow-wise (later in the year). Then again, I'm probably completely wrong and the outcome will be either an amazing storm-wise year and terrible snow-wise year or terrible snow-wise and storm-wise year.

No lightning in the last 10 minutes.

Distant rumbles! But, lightning is pretty minimal.

"The vagaries of convective forecasting continue! Much mid-level cloud has accompanied this meaning very limited surface heating - a few thunderstorms have developed over NE France and will move into E Kent. Otherwise, the risk seems fairly low for most other places." In other words, the forecast has changed dramatically, and the risk of thunderstorms is only apparent in Kent - elsewhere low.

I'm sorry to moan, but this is ridiculous. At this point I am 95% sure that no storms will strike the Midlands. As for the East they may get their last few strikes before everything goes quite. Today was beyond disappointment.

Activity has died out in the South East, only the odd strike as the storm moves NW.

Oh dear! The level 2 should be over London.

Random spasm on the map... Strikes randomly flashing in the South.

There is still 15 minutes before 6pm, and the far South East looks to be the storm hotspot.

I think London and the South East of England are most likely to get a decent thunderstorm... despite not being in the highest warning zone. I would probably be mad if I were placed in the highest warning zone; there has not been a single thunderstorm in that area and a 'Level 2' warning is rare in the UK.

Today sucks.

Storm likelihood downgrades in Midlands (and for other areas to a lesser extent). The CAPE and LI is expected to be alot lower than forecasted yesterday, although high enough for storms, HOWEVER, the precipiatation is due to arrive when these values decrease, therefore storms may be less severe or just rain.

Not much to look forward to. Everyday for the next seven days is set to be similar - temperatures at 14-17C max, mostly/partially cloudy, blustery winds on some days. No storms on the horizon.

Nothing stormy here since last year. Friday looked hopeful but recent downgrades in temperatures and CAPE/LI rule off the chance of any decent storms. June will probably suck this year. Then again, all months this year have sucked: No heatwaves No snow No storms No 'big freeze' or 'little freeze' No tornadoes No exceptional windstorms Just... Nothing!!

The forecast: Wednesday: sunny, patchy clouds, virtually no rain, moderate winds. Thursday: partially cloudy, light winds, slightly warmer than Wednesday. Friday: gloomy, barely sunny, maybe some showers, slightly warmer than Thursday. (Friday was supposed to be 'stormy and sizzling', well don't expect much now) Saturday: cooler, mild, partially cloudy, virtually no rain, breezy. Sunday: pretty much the exact same as Saturday, may be cloudier. Monday: pretty much Sunday with a shower, light winds. Tuesday: Anti-cyclonic gloom guaranteed, slightly cooler than Monday, breezy and just cloudy. Wednesday: Basically Monday with less cloudy. Thursday: Same as Wednesday but warmer. Friday: Same as Thursday, slightly milder. AND THIS PATTERN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST HALF OF JUNE! Such boooring weather.....

It sure is windy, but not damagingly windy. The worst of the storm has already gone, but tomorrow afternoon may be similar.

Maximum sustained wind: 34mph & 4:20pm Maximum gust: 52mph & 1:50am So overall nothing significant here.