Snowshine

Models are not promising any heatwave or even prolonged periods of maximum average temperatures (21C) to start August. Good riddance to 'summer' 2015. Autumn has started early, but nowadays our only seasons appear to be Autumn and Spring.

Despite that one decent thunderstorm earlier in the month, it has been very poor storm-wise so far this summer. Perhaps my expectations are too high, but this time last year I had recorded at least four decent thunderstorms (throughout 2014). The average thunder days is supposed to be over ten, only two so far, and July is supposed to be the most thundery month. Instead we get temperatures comparable to New Years Day, low pressure systems directly over us, and limited sunshine. Hopefully August will be suitable for a BBQ.

Temperatures comparable to March at the moment, even January can feel warmer like you said above. I hope this 'summer' will be made up for with a proper winter.

Nothing to look forwards to this week, or even next week. Temperatures below average, limited sunshine, mostly cloudy, rain on several days, showers possible pretty much everyday. Northwesterly then northerly winds incoming, that says it all.

Very heavy rain here.

Grey and miserable day. The weather is boring!

Im done with tonight, nothing anywhere near here! Hopefully something will wake me up later, doubt it though.

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION High theta-w plume topped by modest EML (steepest lapse rates over SE England) is destabilising on its western side as an upper shortwave trough moves in from the SW. Thunderstorms have developed near the Isle of Wight and will continue to move/expand NNE through this evening. Other convection has formed across portions of the Midlands and may also become thundery as it continues to move NNE. With lapse rates contributing to elevated CAPE of around 800-1000 J/Kg amongst modest wind shear, storms may organise into a small MCS, especially across SE England/E Anglia. Merging cold pools may promote locally strong wind gusts, whilst the steep lapse rates bring the risk of marginally severe hail. At this stage, storm-scale rotation deemed unlikely and thus larger hail also seems unlikely. With this in mind, a discussion has been issued as opposed to a severe thunderstorm watch. Earlier they posted this on TORRO Facebook: Highest chance of thunder appears to be across parts of central southern and south-east England, the SE Midlands, and E Anglia. Even within this area, most people will probably not have a storm - so before you ask, I can't tell you whether your town will have a storm! I'm not expecting anything tonight, despite the Estofex warnings which I think are far too widespread and severe, honestly the storms are not of Level 2 Estofex standard at the moment

The Midland's is looking unfavourable for storms tonight. Most of them will be to the East of us.

Horrible past few days - typical of north westerly and westerly airflows. Thursday isn't even that promising, temperatures barely forecasted above 22C (average) and only patchy sunshine before light rain and windier on Friday. Hot weather should be more common now our winters are mild, gloomy, windy and wet, but no; our seasons have to be dominated by a constant northwesterly airflow - with only the odd plume in summer and wintry shower in winter. I guess we are now facing the most boring weather before the 'mini-iceage' in 2030 and hot summers becoming 'normal' by 2050. If the weather continues its pattern, I can make my own long-range forecast: Long Range Forecast August 2015 - Cloudy and below average temperatures dominant, perhaps the odd plume towards the start of the month. September 2015 - A wet start and end to the month, otherwise drier and above average temperatures. October 2015 - A wet month to begin with followed by a dry spell with temperatures below average by the end of the month. November 2015 - A gloomy month dominated with bands of rain and average temperatures. December 2015 - A cold start to the month followed by a gloomy, wet and warmer than average month. January 2016 - A wet month dominated by Atlantic weather systems and westerly winds bringing mild temperatures. February 2016 - A snowy start to the month followed by a warmer end to the month. Nothing much to look forward to in my long-range forecast i'm afraid, except the snowy start to February 2016. But the weather doesn't ever go the way I predict it to do so!

Overcast skies here. Rain this morning and showers in the afternoon with temperatures feeling below average. Overall a bad day.

Not a bad day by any means. Mostly sunny, light winds but only 17C temperatures. It's next week which may not be promising with a NW airflow - meaning cloud, cool temps and brreezy winds! Hopefully this will change.

What a horrible day, honestly it felt like November this morning and October this afternoon.

No one said the heat will be coming our way for sure. July 2006 is by no means unbreakable, nor is 2003. Also July 2006 wasn't hot all month, but the reason I am comparing 2015 to 2006 is because of a seemingly similar pattern of a hot start to the month, obviously I could be completely wrong and the rest of the month may be average, but there is not a 'zero percent chance' that this month will compare to 2006 or even August 2003 temperature-wise.We are only pulling in northwesterly winds for a brief period of time before pushing in northerly winds and most likely southwesterly winds by the end of the week - but the outcome could be different. The BBC stating in their week ahead forecast that even southerly winds and a smaller chance of northerly winds is still on the cards. The weather is pretty random though, especially in the UK. We could face the hottest heatwave in history later this month or the stormiest, or wettest month. But we could face an average end of the month.

This month could be similar to July 2006, if a heatwave was set to return near the end of the month. July 2006 started with a mini-heatwave and later in the month was the mega-heatwave which lasted around two weeks. Also, the BBC posted this article: By 2100, the chances of a summer being hotter than the one in 2003 are 89% - that's odds of roughly 9-out-of-10 There is still a 35-40% chance of getting a wetter-than-average summer until 2035 but that risk falls to 20% by 2100 The chances of a winter with the same kind of rainfall as in 2013-14 fall to just under 10% by the end of the century And the odds of a very cold winter similar to 2009-10 fall to less than 1% over the same period

Nothing except a distant rumble here.

Perhaps.

Very limited activity in the North. Elsewhere nothing. Northerly winds by midweek - no storms for a while after this.

That storm to the south of me has decayed. Storm Scanner does show upcoming storms for Midlanders though.

Storms in the Midlands look as if they are decaying. Not surprising since they are coming from the West. Storm south of Stratford is no longer a storm.

Heatwave Criteria: At least five consecutive days with temperatures at least 5°C above average. London 2015 London started July 2015 with a mini-heatwave. The temperatures would not qualify as a heatwave, although a record was met on one day. It is far too early to predict a main heatwave at some point this summer. Mini-Heatwave The average within the following time period is: 22°C Jun/29: 26°C Jun/30: 30°C Jul/01: 37°C ® Jul/02: 26°C Jul/03: 27°C Jul/04: 27°C 2006 London actually had a less severe heatwave to begin July 2006. The main heatwave was technically 14 days long - with only one day not qualifying as heatwave standard, but still 3°C above average. Pre-Heatwave The average within the following time period is: 22°C Jun/29: 25°C Jun/30: 28°C Jul/01: 29°C Jul/02: 31°C Jul/03: 30°C Jul/04: 30°C (H) Jul/05: 23°C Main Heatwave The average within the following time period is: 23°C Jul/15: 25°C Jul/16: 30°C Jul/17: 31°C Jul/18: 32°C Jul/19: 35°C Jul/20: 30°C (H) Jul/21: 31°C (H) Jul/22: 29°C (H) Jul/23: 26°C Jul/24: 29°C Jul/25: 32°C Jul/26: 32°C Jul/27: 28°C Jul/28: 28°C (H) Jul/29: 26°C Jul/30: 25°C

Interesting Estofex warnings tomorrow. London are only within the 15% lightning zone, whilst most of the UK is under the 50%.

Back to reality... North-Westerlies next week!

Insane storm near Stratford (Warwickshire) this evening. Lightning constant - at least 20 strikes per minute, most IC but some CG - and one green strike (which I found out was actually a power line cut!). This is one storm that I will not forget, unfortunately North Westerlies return soon.

I am OUT! Without a doubt! That storm was one in a lifetime - one whole hour of constant lightning!